Skip to Content

2024 Race: Harris And Trump Neck And Neck As RFK Jr. Exits Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Nearly 7 In 10 Think America's Best Days Are Yet To Come

Fresh off the Democratic National Convention and heading into the final months of the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a race that is too close to call with Harris receiving 49 percent support among likely voters, Trump receiving 47 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each receiving one percent support, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of likely voters released today.

This is the first national survey of likely voters in the 2024 presidential election race by the Quinnipiac University Poll and cannot be compared to results of earlier surveys of registered voters.

Democrats 98 - 1 percent support Harris, while Republicans 94 - 5 percent support Trump. Independents are evenly split, with 45 percent supporting Harris and 45 percent supporting Trump.

There is a yawning gender gap. Harris has a 21-point advantage among women (58 - 37 percent), while Trump has an 18-point advantage among men (57 - 39 percent).

In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris receives 49 percent support and Trump receives 48 percent support.

"Conventions done, debates in the planning, rhetoric getting rougher, there's a slight numerical difference, but it is essentially a tie as the presidential race roars toward November 5th," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

Following the Democratic National Convention, roughly 4 out of 10 likely voters (42 percent) say Kamala Harris' acceptance speech has no impact on their view of her, while 32 percent say it makes them think more favorably of her and 20 percent say it makes them think less favorably of her.

RFK JR.

In the wake of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspending his presidential campaign as an independent candidate and endorsing Donald Trump, a majority of likely voters (64 percent) say RFK Jr.'s endorsement does not have an impact on their view of Trump, while 19 percent say it makes them think more favorably of Trump and 15 percent say it makes them think less favorably of Trump.

When asked their opinion of RFK Jr., 42 percent of likely voters say unfavorable, while 32 percent say favorable and 24 percent say they haven't heard enough about him.

"RFK Jr. - his own presidential prospects in a nosedive - bounces to Donald Trump's camp. But is he an asset or a liability? Independents, so critical to the outcome of the race, aren't exactly swayed by him to change their views about Trump," added Malloy.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:

  • Kamala Harris: 47 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable, 5 percent haven't heard enough about her;
  • Donald Trump: 46 percent favorable, 52 percent unfavorable, 1 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Joe Biden: 42 percent favorable, 55 percent unfavorable, 2 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Tim Walz: 40 percent favorable, 32 percent unfavorable, 26 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • J.D. Vance: 34 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable, 22 percent haven't heard enough about him.

PERSONAL TRAITS

Likely voters were asked whether they would say that Harris and Trump have good leadership skills, care about the needs and problems of people like them, are inspiring, are ethical, have the mental fitness to serve a presidential term, and are level-headed.

Good leadership skills:

  • Harris: 48 percent say yes, 46 percent say no;
  • Trump: 51 percent say yes, 47 percent say no.

Cares about the needs and problems of people like you:

  • Harris: 50 percent say yes, 47 percent say no;
  • Trump: 48 percent say yes, 51 percent say no.

Inspiring:

  • Harris: 50 percent say yes, 47 percent say no;
  • Trump: 46 percent say yes, 53 percent say no.

Ethical:

  • Harris: 51 percent say yes, 41 percent say no;
  • Trump: 39 percent say yes, 57 percent say no.

Mental fitness to serve a presidential term:

  • Harris: 67 percent say yes, 29 percent say no;
  • Trump: 51 percent say yes, 47 percent say no.

Level-headed:

  • Harris: 56 percent say yes, 37 percent say no;
  • Trump: 39 percent say yes, 58 percent say no.
"While neither candidate clearly stands out on leadership, empathy nor inspiration, when it comes to ethics, level headedness and mental fitness, the Vice President has the clear upper hand," added Malloy.

TRUMP VS. HARRIS: THE ISSUES

Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling 11 issues...

  • crime: 49 percent say Harris, while 48 percent say Trump;
  • the Russia - Ukraine war: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris;
  • the United States Supreme Court: 49 percent say Harris, while 47 percent say Trump;
  • the Israel - Hamas war in Gaza: 49 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris;
  • immigration: 51 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
  • preserving democracy in the United States: 50 percent say Harris, while 45 percent say Trump;
  • the economy: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
  • gun violence: 51 percent say Harris, while 45 percent say Trump;
  • inflation: 52 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris;
  • abortion: 55 percent say Harris, while 38 percent say Trump;
  • climate change: 59 percent say Harris, while 34 percent say Trump.

HANDLING A CRISIS

When it comes to who they think would do a better job handling a crisis that put the country at great risk, likely votes are split, with 49 percent saying Trump and 48 percent saying Harris.

ISSUES MOST IMPORTANT TO VOTERS

Likely voters were asked how important the following 11 issues were in their decision of who to support in the election for president (extremely important, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all). The percentage saying the issue is extremely important to their vote for president is:

  • preserving democracy in the United States: 54 percent;
  • the economy: 45 percent;
  • the United States Supreme Court: 42 percent;
  • inflation: 37 percent;
  • immigration: 36 percent;
  • abortion: 33 percent;
  • gun violence: 33 percent;
  • crime: 28 percent;
  • climate change: 21 percent;
  • Israel - Hamas war in Gaza: 21 percent;
  • Russia - Ukraine war: 18 percent.

PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Roughly 9 out of 10 likely voters (91 percent) think it is likely that they will watch the televised debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 10th, while 8 percent think it is unlikely that they will watch the debate.

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL

Forty-five percent of likely voters approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, while 52 percent disapprove.

AMERICA'S FUTURE

More than two-thirds of likely voters (69 percent) think America's best days are ahead of us, while 17 percent think America's best days are behind us and 14 percent did not offer an opinion.

"Despite their differences, nearly 7 in 10 voters see brighter days on the horizon. While Democrats are the most hopeful, followed by independents then Republicans; in the aggregate, Americans are choosing optimism," added Malloy.

1,611 likely voters nationwide were surveyed from August 23rd - 27th with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu or follow us on X (formerly known as Twitter) @QuinnipiacPoll.

Poll Questions