July 22, 2015 - Clinton In Trouble In Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Trump's Negatives Are Almost 2-1 Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is behind or on the wrong side of a too-close-to-call result in matchups with three leading Republican contenders, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Perhaps the biggest loser, however, is Donald Trump, who has negative favorability ratings of almost 2-1 in each state, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on key states in the presidential election.

In several matchups in Iowa and Colorado, another Democratic contender, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, runs as well as, or better than Clinton against Rubio, Bush and Walker. Vice President Joseph Biden does not do as well.

Clinton gets markedly negative favorability ratings in each state, 35 - 56 percent in Colorado, 33 - 56 percent in Iowa and 41 - 50 percent in Virginia.

The worst favorability ratings for any Democrat or Republican in the presidential field belong to Trump: 31 - 58 percent in Colorado, 32 - 57 percent in Iowa and 32 - 61 percent in Virginia.

"Hillary Clinton's numbers have dropped among voters in the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. She has lost ground in the horserace and on key questions about her honesty and leadership," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "On being a strong leader, a key metric in presidential campaigns, she has dropped four to 10 points depending on the state and she is barely above 50 percent in each of the three states."

"Against three Republicans, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Secretary Clinton trails in six matchups and is on the down side of too-close-to call in three," Brown added.

"That's compared to the April 9 Quinnipiac University poll in which she was clearly ahead in five of the matchups and too-close-to-call in the other four. One other key takeaway is that Vice President Joseph Biden, who is considering a 2016 run, does better than Clinton on honesty and on caring about voter needs, always a key Democratic strong point."

"Donald Trump stands out for the wrong reason among the 17 candidates for the Republican presidential nomination: His large negative favorability rating means his growth potential is not as attractive as his competitors."

Matchups in each state show:
	          Colorado  Iowa    Virginia
*	Clinton   38        36      41
*	Rubio     46        44      43
*	Clinton   36        36      39
*	Bush      41        42      42
*	Clinton   38        37      40
*	Walker    47        45      43
*	Biden     35        37      41
*	Rubio     49        45      45
*	Biden     36        37      40
*	Bush      45        44      45
*	Biden     36        36      41
*	Walker    48        47      45
*	Sanders   35        36      37
*	Rubio     46        43      44
*	Sanders   37        38      36
*	Bush      43        42      46
*	Sanders   36        36      36
*	Walker    44        44      44




Colorado voters say 62 - 34 percent that Hillary Clinton is not honest and trustworthy; 52 - 46 percent that she has strong leadership qualities and 57 - 39 percent that she does not care about their needs and problems.

Bush gets a negative 35 - 50 percent favorability in Colorado, where voters say 48 - 40 percent that he is honest and trustworthy, 58 - 31 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 48 - 40 percent that he does not care about their needs and problems.

Colorado voters give Rubio a positive 39 - 28 percent favorability rating and say 43 - 30 percent that he is honest and trustworthy, 47 - 29 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 43 - 35 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Walker gets a 35 - 25 percent favorability rating in Colorado. Voters say 40 - 30 percent that he is honest; 46 - 23 percent that he has strong leadership and 38 - 33 percent that he cares about their needs.

"Hillary Clinton's numbers on honesty and trust may border on abysmal but Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, the GOP front runner, is still battling a name recognition handicap," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Do Colorado voters trust Hillary? No, they do not. Do they think she cares about their needs? No they do not.

"So the door is open to a GOP candidate voters can believe in."

Iowa

Hillary Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, Iowa voters say 59 - 33 percent. She is a strong leader, voters say 52 - 43 percent, but she does not care about their needs and problems, voters say 55 - 39 percent.

Bush gets a negative 37 - 45 percent favorability in Iowa. Voters say 44 - 35 percent that he is honest and trustworthy and 54 - 32 percent that he has strong leadership, but voters say 47 - 38 percent that he does not care about their needs and problems.

Iowa voters give Rubio a positive 36 - 27 percent favorability rating and say 45 - 23 percent that he is honest and trustworthy; 47 - 23 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 43 - 30 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Walker gets a 38 - 23 percent favorability rating from Iowa voters. Voters say 41 - 30 percent that he is honest; 50 - 24 percent that he has strong leadership and 42 - 32 percent that he cares about their needs.

"Because Iowa is the scene of the first caucus, Iowa voters are exposed to the presidential campaign more and much earlier than those in any other state with the possible exception of New Hampshire," Brown said. "The result is that they see campaign television ads many months before most of the rest of the country. The large drop in Secretary Clinton's favorability in Iowa, from a split 45 - 47 percent in Quinnipiac University's April 9 survey to a big negative 33 - 56 percent today, has to be worrisome for her."

Virginia

Hillary Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, Virginia voters say 55 - 39 percent. She is a strong leader, voters say 54 - 42 percent, but she does not care about their needs and problems, voters say 50 - 45 percent.

Bush gets a positive 43 - 39 percent favorability in Virginia. Voters say 51 - 33 percent that he is honest and trustworthy and 63 - 28 percent that he has strong leadership qualities, but split 44 - 41 percent on whether he cares about their needs and problems.

Virginia voters give Rubio a 36 - 27 percent favorability rating and say 45 - 27 percent that he is honest and trustworthy; 43 - 28 percent that he has strong leadership and 41 - 36 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Walker gets a 36 - 26 percent favorability rating in Virginia. Voters say 39 - 26 percent that he is honest; 46 - 24 percent that he has strong leadership qualities, but split 37 - 33 percent on whether he cares about their needs.

"Virginia's two presidential candidates, former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore and former Democratic U.S. Sen. James Webb, are unknown even to large numbers of Virginians, as 62 percent of voters don't know enough about Gilmore to form an opinion. Webb's favorability is a lackluster 30 - 23 percent," Brown said.

From July 9 - 20 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,231 Colorado voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points;
  • 1,236 Iowa voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points;
  • 1,209 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              36%    36%    39%
Bush                 41     42     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      5      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      9     10      7
DK/NA                 8      8      8
 
 
2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Scott Walker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              38%    37%    40%
Walker               47     45     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      5      5
DK/NA                 6      9      8
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              38%    36%    41%
Rubio                46     44     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      4      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      6      5
DK/NA                 7     10      7
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Biden                36%    37%    40%
Bush                 45     44     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      9      7      5
DK/NA                 6      8      7
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Scott Walker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Biden                36%    36%    41%
Walker               48     47     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      6      4
DK/NA                 7      9      7
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Biden                35%    37%    41%
Rubio                49     45     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      6      5
DK/NA                 7      9      7
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Sanders              37%    38%    36%
Bush                 43     42     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      7      5
DK/NA                10     10      9
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Scott Walker the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Sanders              36%    36%    36%
Walker               44     44     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      5
DK/NA                11     12     12
 
 
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Sanders              35%    36%    37%
Rubio                46     43     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      6      5
DK/NA                12     13     10
 
 
Q10-32. Colorado Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable).
                     COLORADO REGISTERED VOTERS .......
                                   Hvn't
                     Fav    Unfav  hrdEn  REF    NetFav
 
Carson               33     17     49      1     16
Rubio                39     28     32      -     11
Walker               35     25     39      1     10
Kasich               12     10     77      1      2
Fiorina              20     19     60      1      1
Paul                 35     34     30      1      1
Jindal               21     21     58      -      0
Sanders              29     31     39      1     -2
Webb                  6     11     82      1     -5
Gilmore               1      7     91      1     -6
Chafee                3      9     87      1     -6
O'Malley              6     12     81      -     -6
Pataki                8     17     74      1     -9
Perry                28     38     33      1    -10
Cruz                 27     39     33      1    -12
Huckabee             29     42     28      1    -13
Santorum             22     36     41      1    -14
Bush                 35     50     15      1    -15
Biden                36     52     11      1    -16
Graham               13     33     52      2    -20
Clinton              35     56      6      2    -21
Trump                31     58      9      2    -27
Christie             22     52     24      2    -30
 
Q10-32. Iowa Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable).
                     IOWA REGISTERED VOTERS............
                                   Hvn't
                     Fav    Unfav  hrdEn  REF    NetFav
 
Walker               38     23     38      1     15
Carson               24     15     60      1      9
Jindal               30     21     48      -      9
Rubio                36     27     35      1      9
Sanders              32     28     39      1      4
Paul                 35     34     30      1      1
Kasich                9      9     82      -      0
Perry                36     36     28      1      0
Huckabee             36     37     27      1     -1
Santorum             29     30     39      1     -1
Gilmore               1      4     95      -     -3
Chafee                5      8     87      -     -3
Fiorina              13     17     69      1     -4
O'Malley              7     11     82      1     -4
Webb                  6     10     84      -     -4
Cruz                 27     32     40      1     -5
Biden                39     46     13      2     -7
Bush                 37     45     16      2     -8
Pataki                3     14     83      -    -11
Graham               13     29     58      -    -16
Christie             24     45     28      3    -21
Clinton              33     56      9      2    -23
Trump                32     57      8      3    -25
 
 
Q10-32. Virginia Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable).
                     VIRGINIA REGISTERED VOTERS........
                                   Hvn't
                     Fav    Unfav  hrdEn  REF    NetFav
 
Carson               30     19     49      2     11
Walker               36     26     38      -     10
Rubio                36     27     34      2      9
Webb                 30     23     46      2      7
Bush                 43     39     15      3      4
Kasich               14     10     75      1      4
Biden                46     44      8      2      2
Sanders              27     26     46      1      1
Fiorina              15     15     68      1      0
Gilmore              16     20     62      2     -4
Jindal               21     25     53      1     -4
O'Malley             15     19     66      -     -4
Huckabee             34     40     25      2     -6
Pataki                9     16     73      2     -7
Chafee                3     10     85      1     -7
Clinton              41     50      7      3     -9
Santorum             25     35     38      2    -10
Cruz                 25     39     35      1    -14
Paul                 25     40     33      2    -15
Graham               15     32     52      1    -17
Perry                21     38     39      2    -17
Christie             28     47     22      2    -19
Trump                32     61      5      2    -29
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            35%    33%    41%
Unfavorable          56     56     50
Hvn't hrd enough      6      9      7
REFUSED               2      2      3
 
 
11. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            35%    37%    43%
Unfavorable          50     45     39
Hvn't hrd enough     15     16     15
REFUSED               1      2      3
 
 
12. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            33%    24%    30%
Unfavorable          17     15     19
Hvn't hrd enough     49     60     49
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
13. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            22%    24%    28%
Unfavorable          52     45     47
Hvn't hrd enough     24     28     22
REFUSED               2      3      2
 
 
14. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            27%    27%    25%
Unfavorable          39     32     39
Hvn't hrd enough     33     40     35
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
15. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            20%    13%    15%
Unfavorable          19     17     15
Hvn't hrd enough     60     69     68
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
16. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jim Gilmore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable             1%     1%    16%
Unfavorable           7      4     20
Hvn't hrd enough     91     95     62
REFUSED               1      -      2
 
 
17. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            13%    13%    15%
Unfavorable          33     29     32
Hvn't hrd enough     52     58     52
REFUSED               2      -      1
 
 
18. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            29%    36%    34%
Unfavorable          42     37     40
Hvn't hrd enough     28     27     25
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
19. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Bobby Jindal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            21%    30%    21%
Unfavorable          21     21     25
Hvn't hrd enough     58     48     53
REFUSED               -      -      1
 
 
20. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            12%     9%    14%
Unfavorable          10      9     10
Hvn't hrd enough     77     82     75
REFUSED               1      -      1
 
 
21. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable             8%     3%     9%
Unfavorable          17     14     16
Hvn't hrd enough     74     83     73
REFUSED               1      -      2
 
 
22. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            35%    35%    25%
Unfavorable          34     34     40
Hvn't hrd enough     30     30     33
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
23. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            28%    36%    21%
Unfavorable          38     36     38
Hvn't hrd enough     33     28     39
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
24. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            39%    36%    36%
Unfavorable          28     27     27
Hvn't hrd enough     32     35     34
REFUSED               -      1      2
 
 
25. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            22%    29%    25%
Unfavorable          36     30     35
Hvn't hrd enough     41     39     38
REFUSED               1      1      2
 
 
26. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            31%    32%    32%
Unfavorable          58     57     61
Hvn't hrd enough      9      8      5
REFUSED               2      3      2
 
 
27. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            35%    38%    36%
Unfavorable          25     23     26
Hvn't hrd enough     39     38     38
REFUSED               1      1      -
 
 
28. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            36%    39%    46%
Unfavorable          52     46     44
Hvn't hrd enough     11     13      8
REFUSED               1      2      2
 
 
29. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable             3%     5%     3%
Unfavorable           9      8     10
Hvn't hrd enough     87     87     85
REFUSED               1      -      1
 
 
30. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable             6%     7%    15%
Unfavorable          12     11     19
Hvn't hrd enough     81     82     66
REFUSED               -      1      -
 
 
31. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable            29%    32%    27%
Unfavorable          31     28     26
Hvn't hrd enough     39     39     46
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
32. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Favorable             6%     6%    30%
Unfavorable          11     10     23
Hvn't hrd enough     82     84     46
REFUSED               1      -      2
 
 
37. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  34%    33%    39%
No                   62     59     55
DK/NA                 4      8      5
 
 
38. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Joe Biden is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  48%    51%    58%
No                   45     36     35
DK/NA                 8     14      6
 
 
39. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Jeb Bush is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  48%    44%    51%
No                   40     35     33
DK/NA                12     20     17
 
 
40. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  43%    45%    45%
No                   30     23     27
DK/NA                26     32     28
 
 
41. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Bernie Sanders is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  41%    41%    43%
No                   24     20     17
DK/NA                35     39     40
 
 
42. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Scott Walker is honest and trustworthy or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  40%    41%    39%
No                   30     30     26
DK/NA                31     29     35
 
 
43. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  52%    52%    54%
No                   46     43     42
DK/NA                 2      5      4
 
 
44. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Joe Biden has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  40%    45%    49%
No                   55     45     45
DK/NA                 6     10      6
 
 
45. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  58%    54%    63%
No                   31     32     28
DK/NA                10     14      9
 
 
46. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  47%    47%    43%
No                   29     23     28
DK/NA                24     30     29
 
 
47. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  37%    36%    31%
No                   29     27     27
DK/NA                33     38     42
 
 
48. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Scott Walker has strong leadership qualities or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  46%    50%    46%
No                   23     24     24
DK/NA                31     26     31
 
 
49. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  39%    39%    45%
No                   57     55     50
DK/NA                 4      7      5
 
 
50. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Joe Biden cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  45%    48%    55%
No                   49     43     39
DK/NA                 6      9      5
 
 
51. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Jeb Bush cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  40%    38%    44%
No                   48     47     41
DK/NA                11     15     15
 
 
52. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  43%    43%    41%
No                   35     30     36
DK/NA                22     27     24
 
 
53. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Bernie Sanders cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Yes                  40%    42%    39%
No                   30     25     27
DK/NA                30     33     34
 
 
54. (Split Sample) Would you say that - Scott Walker cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?