May 23, 2016 - Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Is First To Call Clinton-Trump Race Close Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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A May 10 Quinnipiac University Swing State poll, showing close races between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump in the Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania presidential campaigns, was criticized by some observers as an outlier.

The May 10 survey was, in fact, a forerunner as every reputable poll since then has shown the Clinton-Trump race is close.

The Swing State Poll showed:
  • Florida: Clinton at 43 percent with 42 percent for Trump;
  • Ohio: Clinton at 39 percent, with 43 percent for Trump;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump.
In 2012, Quinnipiac University presidential election polls were accurate in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The final pre-election survey had President Barack Obama ahead by 1 percentage point in Florida and he won by 1 point. In Ohio, Quinnipiac University showed Obama up by 5 points, and he won by 3 points. In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University had Obama ahead by 4 points, and he won by 5 points.

From April 27 - May 8 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,051 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
  • 1,042 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
  • 1,077 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
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The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

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