August 17, 2016 - Clinton Has Big Leads In Colorado, Virginia, Tied In Iowa, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Additional info by state at bottom of page
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  • COLORADO: Clinton 49 - Trump 39
  • IOWA: Clinton 47- Trump 44
  • VIRGINIA: Clinton 50 - Trump 38



Democrat Hillary Clinton has double-digit likely voter leads in Colorado and Virginia and is on the plus side of a too-close-to-call race in Iowa, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Both candidates have negative favorability ratings in each state, but Republican Donald Trump's 2-1 negative scores are much higher. More Clinton voters say they mainly are voting anti-Trump than pro-Clinton. Among Trump supporters, the anti-Clinton motive tops the pro- Trump motive 2-1, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

The presidential matchups show:
  • Colorado - Clinton beats Trump 49 - 39 percent;
  • Iowa - Clinton at 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent;
  • Virginia - Clinton tops Trump 50 - 38 percent.
With third party candidates in the race, results are:
  • Colorado - Clinton leads Trump 41 - 33 percent, with 16 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 7 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
  • Iowa - Clinton at 41 percent to Trump's 39 percent, with Johnson at 12 percent and Stein at 3 percent;
  • Virginia - Clinton tops Trump 45 - 34 percent with 11 percent for Johnson and 5 percent for Stein.
"The scary thing for Republicans in the Virginia and Colorado numbers is that they show a possible Hillary Clinton landslide in states that only eight years ago leaned GOP and before that had been GOP strongholds," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"In Colorado, with a burgeoning Hispanic population, Donald Trump's comments about Hispanics seem to have put the state out of his reach. In Virginia, the growth of the Democratic leaning Washington D.C. suburbs probably has made the difference," Brown added.

"Colorado and Virginia are important swing states. Faced with these deficits in those states, Trump's situation is similar to the poker player who must draw to an inside straight flush.

"Iowa is a virtual tie because the state has a smaller than average minority population. Secretary Clinton is winning minority voters in most states by overwhelming numbers, but the Iowa electorate does not offer her that opportunity. Also at work in Iowa are the effects of the Iowa caucuses in which candidates were exposed to candidates up close. The state also is home to many blue-collar workers Trump is attracting in other states."

Clinton has leads of 18 to 25 percentage points among women. Trump's lead with men is 14 percentage points in Iowa, while he is basically tied among men in Virginia and Colorado.

Former President and possible first First Gentleman Bill Clinton has positive favorability ratings in each state, much better than his wife's negative scores.

Colorado

Colorado women back Clinton 53 - 34 percent. Men are divided with 45 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Trump. Independent voters go to Clinton 46 - 33 percent. She leads 47 - 40 percent among white voters and 64 - 29 percent among non-white voters.

Colorado voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 40 - 56 percent for her and 29 - 66 percent for him. Other favorability ratings are:
  • 51 - 43 percent for former President Bill Clinton;
  • 59 - 28 percent for First Lady Michelle Obama;
  • 54 - 42 percent for President Barack Obama;
  • A divided 24 - 25 percent for potential First Lady Melania Trump.
Among Clinton supporters, 37 percent say the main reason for their vote is they are pro- Clinton, while 48 percent say their main motive is anti-Trump and 13 percent say they back the Democratic nominee.

Among Trump supporters, only 22 percent say they are pro-Trump, while 62 percent are anti-Clinton and 10 percent say they back the Republican nominee.

"Will Colorado be a mountain just too high for city slicker Donald Trump to climb? The state labeled the next California, swinging from red to blue, has given Hillary Clinton a double- digit cushion," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Colorado likely voters say Trump is likely not their guy."

"Brash and tough seems to get no traction in cowboy country as Colorado tells Trump to get down to serious policy or git along," Malloy added.

Iowa

In these three states, the gender gap is biggest in Iowa where women back Clinton 56 - 38 percent, while men back Trump 51 - 37 percent. Trump leads 85 - 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters are divided, with 45 percent for Trump and 41 percent for Clinton. Democrats back Clinton 97 - 1 percent.

Iowa voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 37 - 58 percent for her and 33 - 60 percent for him. Other favorability ratings are:
  • 51 - 44 percent for President Bill Clinton;
  • 60 - 24 percent for First Lady Michelle Obama;
  • 52 - 44 percent for President Barack Obama;
  • 23 - 18 percent for potential First Lady Melania Trump, with 55 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her.
Among Clinton supporters, 49 percent say they are anti-Trump; 36 percent are pro- Clinton, and 8 percent say they back the Democratic nominee.

Among Trump supporters, 28 percent say they are pro-Trump, while 53 percent are anti- Clinton and 14 percent say they back the Republican nominee.

"Iowa shows the importance of candidates tending to their base," Brown said. "Even though Trump is on the right side of a 45 - 41 percent split among Hawkeye State independent voters, Clinton is able to tie him because she is getting 97 percent of Democrats compared to his 85 percent of Republicans."

Virginia

In the Old Dominion, women back Clinton 56 - 31 percent, while men are divided with 46 percent for Trump and 42 percent for Clinton. Republicans back Trump 79 - 13 percent, while Clinton leads 92 - 3 percent among Democrats. Independent voters go to Clinton 43 - 37 percent. White voters back Trump 48 - 41 percent. Non-white voters go to Clinton 69 - 17 percent.

Virginia voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 44 - 50 percent for her and 29 - 63 percent for him. Other favorability ratings are:
  • 51 - 41 percent for President Clinton;
  • 66 - 22 percent for Michelle Obama;
  • 56 - 39 percent for President Obama;
  • A divided 23 - 21 percent for potential First Lady Melania Trump.
Among Clinton supporters, 32 percent say they are pro-Clinton, while 44 percent are anti-Trump and 18 percent say they back the Democratic nominee.

Among Trump supporters, 23 percent say they are pro-Trump, while 61 percent are anti- Clinton and 10 percent say they back the Republican nominee.

"Virginia is a good example of how the racial dynamics of the election are shaping the race. Hillary Clinton's 69 - 17 percent lead among non-white voters overwhelms Donald Trump's 48 - 41 percent lead among white voters," Brown said.

From August 9 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 830 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points;
  • 846 Iowa likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points;
  • 808 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Trump?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              49%    47%    50%
Trump                39     44     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      4      5
DK/NA                 9      6      8
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS......
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Made up              90%    85%    85%
Might change          9     14     12
DK/NA                 1      1      3
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Strongly favorable   19%    20%    19%
Smwht favorable      10     13     10
Smwht unfavorable     7     10      7
Strongly unfavorable 59     50     56
Hvn't hrd enough      2      5      6
REFUSED/DK/NA         2      2      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Strongly favorable   24%    25%    28%
Smwht favorable      16     12     16
Smwht unfavorable     9     10      9
Strongly unfavorable 47     48     41
Hvn't hrd enough      3      4      4
REFUSED/DK/NA         1      1      2
 
 
4. (If Clinton chosen q1) What is the main reason behind your vote for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in November: mainly because you like Hillary Clinton, mainly because Hillary Clinton is the party's nominee, or mainly because you oppose Donald Trump?
                     LIKELY CLINTON VOTERS
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Like Clinton         37%    36%    32%
Party's nominee      13      8     18
Oppose Trump         48     49     44
DK/NA                 3      6      5
 
 
5. (If Trump chosen q1) What is the main reason behind your vote for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in November: mainly because you like Donald Trump, mainly because Donald Trump is the party's nominee, or mainly because you oppose Hillary Clinton?
                     LIKELY TRUMP VOTERS
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Like Trump           22%    28%    23%
Party's nominee      10     14     10
Oppose Clinton       62     53     61
DK/NA                 6      5      6
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Clinton              41%    41%    45%
Trump                33     39     34
Johnson              16     12     11
Stein                 7      3      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1
DK/NA                 3      4      5
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Strongly favorable   41%    37%    43%
Smwht favorable      13     15     13
Smwht unfavorable     7      7      6
Strongly unfavorable 35     37     33
Hvn't hrd enough      1      2      3
REFUSED/DK/NA         2      2      2
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Michelle Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Strongly favorable   48%    42%    51%
Smwht favorable      11     18     15
Smwht unfavorable     8      6      6
Strongly unfavorable 20     18     16
Hvn't hrd enough     11     12      9
REFUSED/DK/NA         2      3      3
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Strongly favorable   27%    30%    28%
Smwht favorable      24     21     23
Smwht unfavorable    10     11      9
Strongly unfavorable 33     33     32
Hvn't hrd enough      4      4      5
REFUSED/DK/NA         2      1      2
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Melania Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...
                     CO     IA     VA
 
Strongly favorable   14%    15%    12%
Smwht favorable      10      8     11
Smwht unfavorable    13      6      6
Strongly unfavorable 12     12     15
Hvn't hrd enough     45     55     51
REFUSED/DK/NA         5      4      5
 
 
Additional info by state:
Colorado: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Iowa: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Virginia: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail