September 8, 2016 - Clinton-Trump Close In Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • FLORIDA: Clinton 47 - Trump 47
  • NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 - Trump 43
  • OHIO: Trump 46 - Clinton 45
  • PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 - Trump 43

The post-Labor Day presidential campaign begins with Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump locked in close races among likely voters in the critical swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

The huge gender and racial gaps that have marked this presidential campaign are still in play, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The exception is North Carolina, where there is a wide racial gap, but almost no gender gap. In Pennsylvania, Clinton loses support among women and Democrats.

The presidential matchups show:
  • Florida - Clinton and Trump tied 47 - 47 percent;
  • North Carolina - Clinton at 47 percent, with Trump at 43 percent;
  • Ohio - Trump at 46 percent to Clinton's 45 percent;
  • Pennsylvania - Clinton tops Trump 48 - 43 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
  • Florida - Clinton and Trump tied 43 - 43 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson at 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent;
  • North Carolina - Clinton edges Trump 42 - 38 percent, with 15 percent for Johnson. Stein is not on the ballot here;
  • Ohio - Trump edges Clinton 41 - 37 percent, with Johnson at 14 percent and Stein at 4 percent;
  • Pennsylvania - Clinton tops Trump 44 - 39 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.
"The effect of the Republican and Democratic conventions on the presidential race has run its course. As the campaign enters its final stage, Florida and Ohio, two of the largest and most important Swing States, are too close to call, while North Carolina and Pennsylvania give Hillary Clinton the narrowest of leads," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"The obvious takeaway from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from his post-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Taking a bit longer view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOP convention began in July, and at least in these four key states is very much up for grabs."

Clinton holds leads of 7 to 20 percentage points among women, while Trump's lead among men ranges from 7 to 22 percentage points. Trump's lead among white voters ranges from 8 to 30 percentage points, while Clinton takes non-white voters by margins of 42 to 71 percentage points.

Florida

Florida women back Clinton 56 - 36 percent, while men back Trump 58 - 36 percent. Trump leads 88 - 9 percent among Republicans and 48 - 39 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 94 - 4 percent. White voters back Trump 59 - 36 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 67 - 25 percent.

"To understand the racial divide in the electorate, consider the sharp contrast between white men and non-white voters in Florida. Trump is getting just 25 percent from minority voters, while Clinton gets just 26 percent of white men," Brown said.

North Carolina

North Carolina is a garden of gender harmony as men go 46 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Trump, with women backing Clinton 49 - 42 percent. The Republican leads 60 - 30 percent among white voters, while non-white voters go Democratic 81 - 10 percent.

Trump leads 91 - 6 percent among Republicans and gets 44 percent of independent voters to Clinton's 41 percent. Democrats back Clinton 90 - 7 percent.

"North Carolina is the exception to the rule in this first-ever presidential campaign between a man and a woman, a state with a very small gender gap," Brown said.

Ohio

Ohio women back Clinton 52 - 39 percent, while men back Trump 53 - 38 percent. White voters back Trump 53 - 38 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 81 - 11 percent.

Trump leads 86 - 9 percent among Republicans as Democrats back Clinton 88 - 9 percent. Independent voters go 43 percent for Trump and 41 percent for Clinton.

"Libertarian Gary Johnson could decide the presidential election in the Buckeye State. He is getting 14 percent from Ohio voters and how that cohort eventually votes could be critical in this swing state - and in the nation," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

Clinton's 48 - 43 percent lead in Pennsylvania compares to a 52 - 42 percent lead in an August 9 Quinnipiac University poll.

Women back Clinton 54 - 39 percent, down from 59 - 36 percent last month. Men back Trump 48 - 41 percent, compared to 49 - 44 percent last month. Trump is up 50 - 42 percent among white voters, while Clinton leads 75 - 15 percent among non-white voters.

Trump leads 82 - 9 percent among Republicans. Clinton takes Democrats 87 - 11 percent, down from 92 - 5 percent last month. She is up among independent voters 51 - 39 percent.

"What was a comfortable 10-point Hillary Clinton cushion in Pennsylvania is now a five- point lead. Where did those five points go?" asked Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"You have only to look at the female demographic, as Clinton's bedrock support among women wobbled in the span of a few weeks.

"Pennsylvania, so crucial and looking like the most solid swing state for Hillary Clinton is back in play."

From August 29 - September 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 761 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
  • 751 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
  • 775 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
  • 778 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Trump?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     NC     OH     PA
 
Clinton              47%    47%    45%    48%
Trump                47     43     46     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      3      3
DK/NA                 5      8      6      5
 
 
2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton, Trump, Stein, or Johnson? (Note: NC Jill Stein not asked. OH Gary Johnson the Libertarian running as independent)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     NC     OH     PA
 
Clinton              43%    42%    37%    44%
Trump                43     38     41     39
Johnson               8     15     14      9
Stein                 2     na      4      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1
DK/NA                 3      5      5      4
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
North Carolina: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Ohio: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Pennsylvania: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables