October 3, 2016 - Clinton Won Debate; Up In Florida, Down In Ohio, On Plus Side Of Close Races In North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Trump 41, Johnson 5
  • NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 46 - Trump 43, Johnson 7
  • OHIO: Trump 47 - Clinton 42, Johnson 6
  • PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 45 - Trump 41, Johnson 5

Likely voters in the critical swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania say by margins of more than 2-1 that Democrat Hillary Clinton bested Republican Donald Trump in the first presidential debate, but except for Florida, that debate win did little to get her more votes, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Clinton broke out of a 43 - 43 percent tie in Florida in a September 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University to take a 46 - 41 percent likely voter lead today. But in Ohio, where Trump had 41 percent to Clinton's 37 percent last month, he now leads 47 - 42 percent.

Four-way races which list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates, except North Carolina, where Green Party candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot, show:
  • Florida: Clinton leads Trump 46 - 41 percent, with 5 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein;
  • North Carolina: Clinton at 46 percent to Trump's 43 percent, with 7 percent for Johnson. Clinton had 42 percent to Trump's 38 percent September 8;
  • Ohio: Trump tops Clinton 47 - 42 percent, with 6 percent for Johnson and 1 percent for Stein;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton at 45 percent to Trump's 41 percent, with 5 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein. Clinton was up 44 - 39 percent September 8.
"Although Hillary Clinton clearly won the first debate with Donald Trump, this victory did her only little good in her race for the White House," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Likely voters in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the four largest and most important Swing States seem little closer to an Election Day decision," Brown added.

"The good news for Secretary Clinton is that she has opened a five-point lead in Florida, in what had been a dead heat in Quinnipiac University's September 8 poll. But Donald Trump holds his lead in Ohio and stays close in North Carolina while she retains her small margin in Pennsylvania."

Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:
  • Florida: Clinton over Trump 49 - 44 percent;
  • North Carolina: Clinton at 49 percent to Trump's 46 percent;
  • Ohio: Trump at 49 percent to Clinton's 46 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton leads Trump 48 - 43 percent.
Florida

Florida likely voters say 56 - 21 percent, including 27 percent of Republicans, that Hillary Clinton topped Donald Trump in the first presidential debate. Clinton is the winner, Democrats say 84 - 2 percent and independent voters say 54 - 20 percent. Trump won, Republicans say 42 - 27 percent.

In the November face-off, Trump leads 49 - 38 percent among men, while Clinton leads 53 - 33 percent among women. Trump leads 84 - 5 percent among Republicans, while Clinton takes Democrats 92 - 5 percent. Independent voters go 42 percent for Trump, 39 percent for Clinton and 7 percent for Johnson.

"One thing is for sure: Many voters don't have to think a presidential candidate is a good debater to support their candidate in 2016. In Florida, likely voters give Hillary Clinton a 35 percentage point margin for winning the debate, but only a five-point margin in the election matchup." Brown said.

North Carolina

North Carolina likely voters say 49 - 24 percent, including 27 percent among Republicans, that Clinton won the debate. Democrats say 71 - 6 percent and independent voters say 49 - 23 percent that Clinton won. Republicans say 46 - 27 percent that Trump won.

The gender gap widens in North Carolina as Trump leads among men 49 - 40 percent, while Clinton leads among women 51 - 38 percent. Men and women were divided almost evenly in the September 8 Quinnipiac University survey.

Clinton takes Democrats 91 - 4 percent while Republicans back Trump 86 - 9 percent. Independent voters are divided with 41 percent for Trump, 40 percent for Clinton and 14 percent for Johnson.

"The internals of this poll explain why North Carolina is too close to call. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are close when it comes to keeping their respective party bases. They are tied among independent voters. He has a nine-point lead among men and she has a 13-point margin among women," Brown said.

Ohio

Ohio likely voters say 50 - 24 percent, including 21 percent among Republicans, that Clinton won the presidential debate. Clinton bested Trump, Democrats say 86 - 4 percent and independent voters say 42 - 27 percent. Republicans say 45 - 21 percent that Trump won.

But Trump's 58 - 31 percent general election lead among men outweighs Clinton's 51 - 39 percent lead among women. Another factor is Trump's 52 - 33 percent lead among independent voters, who give 8 percent to Johnson. Republicans also back Trump 89 - 4 percent, while Democrats back Clinton 88 - 7 percent.

"In some states, figuring why one candidate is doing better than the other takes some head scratching, but not in Ohio. Trump's 19-point lead among independent voters tells us almost all we need to know. Secretary Clinton must close that gap to come back in the Buckeye State," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania likely voters say 57 - 21 percent, including 27 percent among Republicans, that Clinton won the first debate. Clinton won, Democrats say 87 - 5 percent and independent voters say 50 - 24 percent. Republicans say 37 - 27 percent that Trump won.

Clinton leads 51 - 35 percent among women, while men back Trump 47 - 37 percent. She takes Democrats 81 - 8 percent, while he takes Republicans 85 - 8 percent. Independent voters are divided, with 38 percent for Clinton, 35 percent for Trump and 9 percent for Johnson.

"It's win-win in Pennsylvania for Hillary Clinton. A big 'W' for the debate, and a slightly too-close-to- be-comfortable lead in the head-to-head matchup," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"With neighboring Ohio leaning to Donald Trump, critical Pennsylvania stays true to Clinton who barely holds her ground from her pre-debate numbers."

From September 27 - October 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 545 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points;
  • 507 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points;
  • 497 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points;
  • 535 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.qu.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll


1. If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats, Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld the Libertarians, and Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka the Green party candidates, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine, Trump and Pence, Johnson and Weld, or Stein and Baraka? (Note: Stein and Baraka not included in North Carolina)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     NC     OH     PA
 
Clinton and Kaine    46%    46%    42%    45%
Trump and Pence      41     43     47     41
Johnson and Weld      5      7      6      5
Stein and Baraka      2     na      1      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1
DK/NA                 5      3      4      6
 
 
2. If the only candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats and Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine or Trump and Pence?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     NC     OH     PA
 
Clinton and Kaine    49%    49%    46%    48%
Trump and Pence      44     46     49     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1
DK/NA                 6      4      4      8
 
*Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Clinton or Trump Q1 Respondents who named Clinton or Trump in Q1 assigned to initial preference.


3. Who do you think won the first presidential debate, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     NC     OH     PA
 
Clinton              56%    49%    50%    57%
Trump                21     24     24     21
TIE(VOL)             11      8     10     11
DIDN'T WATCH(VOL)     7      9      7      6
DK/NA                 5     10      8      6
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
North Carolina: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Ohio: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Pennsylvania: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables