October 18, 2016 - Florida Senate Race Too Close To Call As Incumbents Lead In Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • COLORADO: Bennet 56 - Glenn 38
  • FLORIDA: Rubio 49 - Murphy 47
  • OHIO: Portman 54 - Strickland 41
  • PENNSYLVANIA: Toomey 49 - McGinty 45

The Florida U.S. Senate race is too close to call as likely voters go 49 percent for Republican incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio and 47 percent for U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, but incumbents in Colorado and Ohio seem to be coasting to reelection, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

In another swing state, Pennsylvania, Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey has a slim 49 - 45 percent lead over Katie McGinty, the Democratic challenger, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Results in the four swing states are:
  • Colorado: Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet leads El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn, the Republican challenger 56 - 38 percent, widening a 52 - 43 percent lead September 23;
  • Florida: Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio at 49 percent with 47 percent for U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, the Democratic challenger, compared to a 48 - 44 percent Rubio lead October 5;
  • Ohio: Republican U.S. Sen. Rob. Portman swamps former Gov. Ted Strickland, the Democratic challenger 54 - 41 percent, compared to 55 - 38 percent October 5;
  • Pennsylvania: Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey edges Katie McGinty, the Democratic challenger, 49 - 45 percent, compared to 50 - 42 percent October 5.
"With Donald Trump's numbers slipping, and control of the U.S. Senate very much in play, a bevy of GOP Senate candidates find themselves in very tight races," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"For the most part, these Republican Senate candidates, including Marco Rubio in Florida and Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, will need to run ahead of the party's presidential ticket in order to get re-elected," Brown added.

Colorado

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet has a 62 - 30 percent lead among independent likely voters. He gets Democrats 95 - 1 percent, while Republicans go to Darryl Glenn 90 - 9 percent.

Bennet also leads among men, women, white and non-white voters.

"Sen. Michael Bennet is breezing to reelection in Colorado, a state that is morphing from red to blue with each passing election cycle," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Florida

Independent likely voters could be the key to the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Florida, going 47 percent for U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, the Democrat, and 46 percent for Republican Sen. Marco Rubio. Democrats back Murphy 86 - 11 percent, while Republicans back Rubio 88 - 9 percent.

There are wide gender and racial gaps: Women back Murphy 51 - 42 percent, while men back Rubio 57 - 41 percent. White voters go Republican 56 - 38 percent, as non-white voters go Democratic 63 - 33 percent.

"Sen. Marco Rubio's upper hand in a too-close-to-call race is at least partially due to his scoring better than most GOP candidates among non-white voters. His third of the minority vote is largely due to his Cuban heritage. If he wins that will be a lesson for the GOP going forward," Brown said.

Ohio

In Ohio, Republican Sen. Rob Portman has a commanding 59 - 34 percent lead over Democrat Ted Strickland among independent likely voters. Republicans back Portman 95 - 4 percent, as Democrats back Strickland 88 - 9 percent.

Portman leads among men and women. White voters back him 61 - 35 percent, while non-white voters back Strickland 75 - 20 percent.

"There's some irony in what appears to be shaping up as a Sen. Rob Portman landslide re-election. Early in the race, he trailed Democrat Ted Strickland, a former governor, who polls showed to be the better-known candidate even though Portman was the incumbent. But as Ohioans got to know him better, they decided Portman was their guy," Brown said. Quinnipiac University Poll/October 18, 2016 - page 3

Pennsylvania

Republican Sen. Pat Toomey has a strong 57 - 35 percent lead over Democrat Katie McGinty among Pennsylvania independent likely voters. He also leads 90 - 5 percent among Republicans, while Democrats back McGinty 82 - 12 percent.

There is a gender gap as men back Toomey 54 - 42 percent while women go 48 percent for McGinty and 45 percent for Toomey. White voters back the Republican 55 - 40 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 69 - 21 percent.

"This is no cakewalk for Sen. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, and the GOP knows a nail- biter that goes the wrong way could help tip the U.S. Senate the wrong way. Democrat Katie McGinty has popped from relative obscurity to a real contender to take a precious seat from the Republicans," Malloy said.

From October 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 685 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points;
  • 660 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points;
  • 624 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points;
  • 660 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
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The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.qu.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll

4a. (CO only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Michael Bennet the Democrat and Darryl Glenn the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Bennet or Glenn?
                     COLORADO LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Bennet               56%     9%    95%    62%    51%    60%    53%    69%
Glenn                38     90      1     30     43     32     42     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      1      4      8      5      7      5      7
	
 
4b. (FL only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Patrick Murphy the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Murphy or Rubio?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Murphy               47%     9%    86%    47%    41%    51%    38%    63%
Rubio                49     88     11     46     57     42     56     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      -      -      -      1
DK/NA                 4      2      3      7      2      6      6      3
 
 
4c. (OH only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Strickland or Portman?
                     OHIO LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Strickland           41%     4%    88%    34%    39%    44%    35%    75%
Portman              54     95      9     59     57     51     61     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                 4      1      2      6      3      4      3      4
 
 
4d. (PA only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Katie McGinty the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward McGinty or Toomey?
                     PENNSYLVANIA LIKELY VOTERS.............................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
McGinty              45%     5%    82%    35%    42%    48%    40%    69%
Toomey               49     90     12     57     54     45     55     21
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      1      -      2
DK/NA                 6      4      5      6      4      7      5      9
 
 
 
Additional info by state:
Colorado: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Florida: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Ohio: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Pennsylvania: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables