October 27, 2016 - Clinton Catches Trump For Ties In Georgia, Iowa; She's Up In North Carolina And Running Away In Virginia Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • GEORGIA: Trump 44 - Clinton 43, Johnson 8
  • IOWA: Clinton 44 - Trump 44, Johnson 4
  • NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 - Trump 43, Johnson 5
  • VIRGINIA: Clinton 50 - Trump 38, Johnson 4

Democrat Hillary Clinton wipes out Republican Donald Trump's leads in Georgia and Iowa, where the two are tied among likely voters. She has a slight edge in North Carolina and is pounding Trump in Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

While wide gender and racial gaps remain, Trump's standing among men is shrinking, especially in Georgia and Iowa, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting.

Four-way races which list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates, except Georgia and North Carolina, where Green Party candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot, show:
  • Georgia: Trump at 44 percent to Clinton's 43 percent, with 8 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson. This compares to a 47 - 40 percent Trump lead September 22;
  • Iowa: A 44 - 44 percent Clinton-Trump tie, with 4 percent for Johnson and 1 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Trump led Clinton 44 - 37 percent September 22;
  • North Carolina: Clinton edges Trump 47 - 43 percent, with 5 percent for Johnson. On October 3, Clinton had 46 percent to Trump's 43 percent;
  • Virginia: Clinton tops Trump 50 - 38 percent, with 4 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein. Clinton was up 45 - 39 percent September 22.
"Time is running out and Donald Trump has lost his leads and now is tied with Hillary Clinton in Iowa and Georgia. North Carolina appears to be moving in her direction also," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Virginia, which 12 years ago was a solidly Republican state, is now 'true blue' in its presidential ballot and one of the most Democratic states south of the Mason-Dixon line," Brown added.

"It's clear that Donald Trump has not worn well on the voters of these four key states. Only an average of about 35 percent of likely voters in them have a favorable opinion of Trump, and more than half say they have an unfavorable view of him.

"Secretary Clinton's favorability numbers are only slightly better - in the low to mid 40s - but that difference in favorability helps her in the horse race."

Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:
  • Georgia: Clinton-Trump tied at 46 - 46 percent;
  • Iowa: Trump at 47 percent to Clinton's 46 percent;
  • North Carolina: Clinton leads Trump 50 - 44 percent;
  • Virginia: Clinton buries Trump 53 - 40 percent.
Georgia

Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters.

Georgia likely voters have negative opinions of both Clinton and Trump, with Clinton at a negative 40 - 55 percent favorability rating and Trump at a negative 38 - 55 percent.

In the four-way race, men back Trump 49 - 39 percent, as women back Clinton 47 - 39 percent. White voters back Trump 65 - 23 percent, while non-white voters back Clinton 77 - 9 percent.

Trump takes Republicans 86 - 7 percent while Democrats go to Clinton 93 - 3 percent. Independent voters are divided with 40 percent for Clinton, 38 percent for Trump and 15 percent for Johnson.

"As in all the states surveyed by Quinnipiac University, negative favorability ratings dog both candidates. While Hillary Clinton has a slight lead among early voters, this race looks like it will come down to the wire," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Iowa

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots.

In Iowa, Clinton is less disliked by likely voters, with a negative 40 - 55 percent favorability rating, compared to Trump's negative 36 - 59 percent.

Iowa men back Trump 51 - 35 percent, while women back Clinton 52 - 37 percent. Republicans go to Trump 88 - 6 percent, while Democrats back Clinton 88 - 9 percent. Independent voters are split 40 - 40 percent, with 6 percent for Johnson.

"The dead heat in Iowa is reflected in the poll's internals. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both are getting 88 percent of their respective party members, while independent voters are evenly divided," Brown said.

North Carolina

North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton.

Clinton's negative 44 - 52 percent favorability rating among North Carolina likely voters is better than Trump's negative 34 - 59 percent score.

Trump leads 49 - 42 percent among men, while Clinton takes women 52 - 37 percent. White voters back Trump 58 - 32 percent, while non-white voters back Clinton 76 - 14 percent.

Trump leads 87 - 6 percent among Republicans and 49 - 34 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 93 - 3 percent.

"In North Carolina the fight is between the combination of a favorable gender gap and greater party unity among Democrats for Hillary Clinton, matched against Donald Trump's double-digit edge among independent voters. So far, her supporters are narrowly ahead," Brown said.

Virginia

Virginia likely voters give Clinton a negative 45 - 53 percent favorability rating. Trump gets a negative 34 - 61 percent favorability.

Men are divided with 44 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Trump. Women back Clinton 55 - 35 percent. Clinton also leads 71 - 13 percent among non-white voters, while white voters go 48 - 41 percent for Trump.

Clinton leads 91 - 3 percent among Democrats and 46 - 32 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Trump 83 - 11 percent.

"One number tells you all you need to know about why Donald Trump is doing so poorly in the Old Dominion: Only 83 percent of Republicans say they are going to vote for him, their own party nominee," Brown said.

"That's a very low measure of party unity. It's fair to say history is not replete with major candidates winning an election in which they got only 83 percent of their own party members," Brown said. "By comparison, Secretary Clinton is getting 91 percent of the Democratic vote."

From October 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 707 Georgia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points;
  • 791 Iowa likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
  • 702 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points;
  • 749 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.qu.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll

1. If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats, Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld the Libertarians, and Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka the Green party candidates, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine, Trump and Pence, Johnson and Weld, or Stein and Baraka? (Note: Jill Stein not included in Georgia or North Carolina)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     GA     IA     NC     VA
 
Clinton and Kaine    43%    44%    47%    50%
Trump and Pence      44     44     43     38
Johnson and Weld      8      4      5      4
Stein and Baraka     na      1     na      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1
DK/NA                 5      6      4      5
 
 
2. If the only candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats and Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine or Trump and Pence?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     GA     IA     NC     VA
 
Clinton and Kaine    46%    46%    50%    53%
Trump and Pence      46     47     44     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2
DK/NA                 7      6      4      5
 
*Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Clinton or Trump Q1 Respondents who named Clinton or Trump in Q1 assigned to initial preference.


3. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     GA     IA     NC     VA
 
Strongly favorable   26%    24%    25%    22%
Smwht favorable      12     12      9     12
Smwht unfavorable     7     10      7      6
Strongly unfavorable 48     49     52     55
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      2      2
REFUSED/DK/NA         4      3      5      2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     GA     IA     NC     VA
 
Strongly favorable   25%    22%    29%    27%
Smwht favorable      15     18     15     18
Smwht unfavorable     6      8      5      7
Strongly unfavorable 49     47     47     46
Hvn't hrd enough      2      3      -      1
REFUSED/DK/NA         3      2      3      2
 
 
Additional info by state:
Georgia: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Iowa: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
North Carolina: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Virginia: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables