October 28, 2016 - North Carolina Gov, Senate Races Close, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; GOP Incumbents Lead In Georgia, Iowa Senate Races Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Additional Information

  • GEORGIA: Isakson 54 - Barksdale 40
  • IOWA: Grassley 56 - Judge 38
  • NORTH CAROLINA GOV: Cooper 49 - McCrory 47
  • NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: Burr 48 - Ross 47

The North Carolina races for governor and U.S. Senate are too close to call, while Republican incumbent senators in Georgia and Iowa each have comfortable double- digit leads, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

While North Carolina voters are dealing with historic floods, the race for governor barely moves, with State Attorney General Roy Cooper, the Democratic challenger, at 49 percent and Republican incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory at 47 percent. This compares to results of an October 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Cooper at 48 percent and McCrory at 46 percent.

U.S. Senate race results in these swing states show:
  • Georgia: Republican incumbent Sen. Johnny Isakson leads Democratic challenger Jim Barksdale, a businessman, 54 - 40 percent. This compares to a 55 - 34 percent lead September 23;
  • Iowa: Six-term GOP incumbent U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley tops former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge, the Democratic challenger 56 - 38 percent, compared to a 55 - 43 percent Grassley lead September 23;
  • North Carolina: Republican incumbent Sen. Richard Burr has 48 percent to Democratic challenger Deborah Ross's 47 percent, virtually unchanged from a 46 - 46 percent tie October 5.
"North Carolina voters have a bevy of choices before them and these poll results indicate how evenly divided are Tar Heel State voters," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"In addition to their split presidential ballot in this key swing state, voters are electing a governor and senator in campaigns that enter the home stretch too-close-to-call," Brown added.

"The Senate race matters outside the state because it could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. Inside the state, Gov. Pat McCrory's reelection effort has produced strong sentiments on both sides.

"Conversely, the Senate races in Georgia and Iowa are among the least competitive, with GOP incumbents Chuck Grassley in Iowa and Johnny Isakson in Georgia far ahead and coasting to reelection."

The racial and gender gaps are wide in Georgia and North Carolina. Early voting favors Democrats in Iowa and North Carolina, while early voting in Georgia is too close to call.

Georgia

Among Georgia likely voters who cast early ballots, Barksdale has 47 percent, to Isakson's 46 percent.

Women are divided with 47 percent for Isakson and 45 percent for Barksdale. Men back the Republican 61 - 34 percent. White voters back Isakson 73 - 24 percent, while non-white voters back Barksdale 67 - 24 percent.

Isakson takes Republicans 95 - 2 percent and independent voters 56 - 35 percent. Democrats go to Barksdale 92 - 6 percent.

"Sen. Johnny Isakson looks like a cinch for reelection November 8, but today he's locked in a too-close-to-call race with challenger Jim Barksdale among likely voters who cast early ballots," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Iowa

Judge leads 53 - 38 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots.

Men back Grassley 63 - 33 percent and women go Republican 50 - 43 percent. Grassley leads 95 - 4 percent among Republicans and 60 - 34 percent among independent voters. Judge takes Democrats 80 - 13 percent. "It's easy to see how Sen. Chuck Grassley is headed to an easy win in Iowa. He's getting 95 percent of the GOP vote and running a hefty 26 points ahead among independent voters," Brown added.

North Carolina

North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 61 - 34 percent for Ross over Burr and 61 - 34 percent for Cooper over McCrory.

In the governor's race, men back McCrory 54 - 42 percent, while women back Cooper 55 - 42 percent. White voters back McCrory 61 - 37 percent, while non-white voters back Cooper 72 - 23 percent.

McCrory leads 90 - 7 percent among Republicans and 54 - 43 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Cooper 88 - 8 percent.

In the Senate race, Burr leads 57 - 38 percent among men and 61 - 34 percent among white voters. Ross leads 55 - 41 percent among women and 71 - 24 percent among non-white voters.

Burr leads 89 - 5 percent among Republicans and 55 - 40 percent among independent voters. Democrats go to Ross 86 - 10 percent.

"Voters in North Carolina are very much split along racial lines. In the Senate race, incumbent GOP Sen. Richard Burr is carrying white voters 61 - 34 percent, while challenger Deborah Ross is winning non-white voters 71 - 24 percent. The racial breakdown in the governor's race are virtually identical," Brown said.

From October 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 707 Georgia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points;
  • 791 Iowa likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
  • 702 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points;
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.qu.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter@QuinnipiacPoll

5a. (GA only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Jim Barksdale the Democrat and Johnny Isakson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Barksdale or Isakson?
                     GEORGIA LIKELY VOTERS..................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Barksdale            40%     2%    92%    35%    34%    45%    30%    18%
Isakson              54     95      6     56     61     47     68     77
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      3      2      9      5      8      2      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Barksdale            45%    44%    36%    32%    20%    28%    24%    67%
Isakson              44     52     61     60     78     67     73     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                11      4      3      8      2      5      4      9
 
                     PARTY IDENTIFICATION...................
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT   Early
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Voters
 
Barksdale             3%     2%    90%    93%    31%    39%    47%
Isakson              94     95      7      6     65     47     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      3      2      2      5     14      8
 
 
5b. (IA only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Patty Judge the Democrat and Chuck Grassley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Judge or Grassley?
                     IOWA LIKELY VOTERS...................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Judge                38%     4%    80%    34%    33%    43%    42%    33%
Grassley             56     95     13     60     63     50     57     60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      1      -      1
DK/NA                 5      1      7      5      4      6      1      7
 
                     PARTY IDENTIFICATION...................
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT   Early
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Voters
 
Judge                 2%     5%    74%    83%    36%    32%    53%
Grassley             97     93     17     11     62     57     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -      -      2      2
DK/NA                 -      2      8      6      2      8      6
 
 
5c. (NC only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Deborah Ross the Democrat and Richard Burr the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Ross or Burr?
                     NORTH CAROLINA LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Ross                 47%     5%    86%    40%    38%    55%    45%    26%
Burr                 48     89     10     55     57     41     52     67
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      6      4      4      6      4      3      6
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Ross                 27%    41%    34%    71%
Burr                 67     56     61     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      4      5      6
 
                     PARTY IDENTIFICATION...................
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT   Early
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Voters
 
Ross                  4%     7%    76%    91%    36%    45%    61%
Burr                 88     91     18      6     61     49     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      1      1
DK/NA                 8      2      6      4      3      5      3
 
 
6. (NC only) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Roy Cooper the Democrat and Pat McCrory the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Cooper or McCrory?
                     NORTH CAROLINA LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cooper               49%     7%    88%    43%    42%    55%    46%    31%
McCrory              47     90      8     54     54     42     52     67
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      1      -
DK/NA                 3      2      4      2      3      3      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Cooper               29%    44%    37%    72%
McCrory              67     55     61     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      1      2      6
 
                     PARTY IDENTIFICATION...................
                     REPUBLICAN    DEMOCRAT..    INDEPENDENT   Early
                     Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Men    Wom    Voters
 
Cooper                9%     5%    85%    89%    38%    47%    61%
McCrory              87     94     10      7     59     50     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      1      2
DK/NA                 3      1      5      4      3      1      3
 
 
Additional info by state:
Georgia: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Iowa: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
North Carolina: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables