November 2, 2016 - Clinton Up In Pennsylvania, As Trump Moves Up In Ohio, With Florida And North Carolina Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Trump 45, Johnson 2
  • NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 - Trump 44, Johnson 3
  • OHIO: Trump 46 - Clinton 41, Johnson 5
  • PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 - Trump 43, Johnson 3

Democrat Hillary Clinton's October momentum comes to a halt as she clings to a small lead in Pennsylvania, while Republican Donald Trump moves ahead in Ohio, leaving Florida and North Carolina too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

In Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, which allow early voting, Clinton has leads of 6 to 26 percentage points among voters who already have cast ballots, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Four-way races which list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates show:
  • Florida: Clinton gets 46 percent to Trump's 45 percent, with 2 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Green party candidate Jill Stein. Clinton edged Trump 48 - 44 percent October 17;
  • North Carolina: Clinton at 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent, with 3 percent for Johnson. Clinton squeaked by Trump 47 - 43 percent October 27;
  • Ohio: Trump leads Clinton 46 - 41 percent, with 5 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein. Clinton and Trump tied 45 - 45 percent October 17;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton leads Trump 48 - 43 percent, with 3 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein. Clinton topped Trump 47 - 41 percent October 17.
"After a two-year campaign which has produced the most unpopular presidential candidates in American history, the election comes down - as it historically does - to a handful of swing states," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"No one has been elected president since 1960 without carrying two of the key swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And, this year, North Carolina has been added to the mix. All four of these key states remain close entering the final days," Brown added.

"Florida, which has the largest cache of electoral votes, is a virtual tie and North Carolina is almost as close.

"Donald Trump's strength is with independent voters."

Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:
  • Florida: Clinton at 47 percent to Trump's 45 percent;
  • North Carolina: Clinton at 48 percent to Trump's 46 percent;
  • Ohio: Trump at 47 percent to Clinton's 44 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton leads Trump 50 - 44 percent.
Florida

Hillary Clinton is ahead 48 - 42 percent among Florida voters who already have cast ballots.

Florida likely voters don't like either candidate, giving Clinton a negative 44 - 54 percent favorability rating and giving Trump a negative 40 - 57 percent favorability.

The gender gap is small as women likely voters back Clinton 49 - 43 percent, while men go 47 percent for Trump and 44 percent for Clinton. White voters back Trump 58 - 34 percent while non-white voters back Clinton 72 - 21 percent.

Trump leads 88 - 7 percent among Republican voters and 46 - 40 percent among independent voters. Clinton takes Democrats 86 - 8 percent.

"Racial patterns are clearly evident in the Florida voting. Hillary Clinton is getting about a third of whites in Florida, to Trump's 58 percent. Non-whites, however, break strongly for her," Brown said.

North Carolina

North Carolina early voters back Clinton 58 - 36 percent.

The candidates are running neck and neck in the unfavorable race, with a negative 41 - 54 percent favorability rating for Clinton and a negative 40 - 53 percent rating for Trump.

North Carolina women likely voters back Clinton 52 - 42 percent, while men back Trump 46 - 41 percent. White voters go to Trump 59 - 33 percent, while non-white voters back Clinton 77 - 10 percent.

Trump leads 88 - 6 percent among Republicans and 45 - 38 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 91 - 6 percent.

"Hillary Clinton has a narrow edge over Donald Trump in North Carolina when it comes to keeping her party base home. She has a tad better score among women than Trump has among men. But the closeness of the North Carolina race shows itself in what voters think of the candidates," Brown said.

Ohio

Ohio early voters back Clinton 58 - 32 percent.

Trump squeaks out a tiny lead in the Ohio unfavorable race, with a negative 39 - 56 percent favorability, compared to Clinton's negative 37 - 59 percent score.

The Republican's lead is built on his 48 - 38 percent lead among men, compared to Clinton's 44 - 44 percent tie among women.

Trump leads 88 - 5 percent among Republicans and 48 - 30 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 89 - 7 percent.

"The 48 - 30 percent lead for Donald Trump among independent voters is pretty overwhelming. Ohio has a large number of voters that the Trump campaign has targeted. The Buckeye state is full of those who feel they have lost their jobs because of unfair trade treaties, and non-college educated whites," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

Clinton is ahead in the unfavorable race in Pennsylvania, with a negative 41 - 56 percent favorability rating, which is less bad than Trump's negative 37 - 60 percent score.

Pennsylvania women likely voters back Clinton 56 - 36 percent, outweighing Trump's 51 - 39 percent lead among men.

Clinton leads 85 - 12 percent among Democrats and 42 - 38 percent among independent voters. Trump takes Republicans 85 - 9 percent.

"Hillary Clinton's solid 6-point lead two weeks ago is now a less comfortable 5-point lead, but it's a lead just the same at a time when every percentage point is scrutinized and any poll movement heightens anxiety," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

From October 27 - November 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 626 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points;
  • 602 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
  • 589 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
  • 612 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll

1. If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats, Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld the Libertarians, and Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka the Green party candidates, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine, Trump and Pence, Johnson and Weld, or Stein and Baraka? (Note: Jill Stein not included in North Carolina)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     NC     OH     PA
 
Clinton and Kaine    46%    47%    41%    48%
Trump and Pence      45     44     46     43
Johnson and Weld      2      3      5      3
Stein and Baraka      2     na      2      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -
DK/NA                 4      5      5      2
 
 
2. If the only candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats and Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine or Trump and Pence?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     NC     OH     PA
 
Clinton and Kaine    47%    48%    44%    50%
Trump and Pence      45     46     47     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      2      1
DK/NA                 4      4      7      4
 
*Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Clinton or Trump Q1 Respondents who named Clinton or Trump in Q1 assigned to initial preference.


3. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     NC     OH     PA
 
Strongly favorable   28%    27%    30%    26%
Smwht favorable      12     13      9     11
Smwht unfavorable     6      3      7     10
Strongly unfavorable 51     50     49     50
Hvn't hrd enough      1      4      1      2
REFUSED/DK/NA         2      3      4      1
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     FL     NC     OH     PA
 
Strongly favorable   30%    29%    26%    26%
Smwht favorable      14     12     11     15
Smwht unfavorable     6      5      5      7
Strongly unfavorable 48     49     54     49
Hvn't hrd enough      -      2      2      2
REFUSED/DK/NA         1      2      2      1
 
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
North Carolina: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Ohio: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Pennsylvania: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables