November 3, 2016 - Rubio Up In Florida Senate Race, GOP Holding Ohio, Dem Edge In North Carolina And PA Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • FLORIDA: Rubio 50 - Murphy 44
  • NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: Ross 49 - Burr 45
  • NORTH CAROLINA GOVERNOR: Cooper 49 - McCrory 47
  • OHIO: Portman 56 - Strickland 38
  • PENNSYLVANIA: McGinty 48 - Toomey 47

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio opens a 6-point lead over U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, the Democratic challenger as Ohio U.S. Sen. Rob Portman holds a commanding 18-point lead over former Gov. Ted Strickland, the Democratic challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

In the North Carolina Senate race, Democratic challenger Deborah Ross is on the plus side of a 49 - 45 percent too-close-to-call race with Republican incumbent Sen. Richard Burr, while the Pennsylvania Senate race between Democratic challenger Katie McGinty and Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey is a virtual tie, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University Poll finds.

U.S. Senate races in these swing states show:
  • Florida: Rubio over Murphy 50 - 44 percent, compared to October 18, when Rubio had 49 percent to Murphy's 47 percent;
  • North Carolina: Ross at 49 percent to Burr's 45 percent, compared to October 28, when Burr had 48 percent to Ross' 47 percent;
  • Ohio: Portman buries Strickland 56 - 38 percent, compared to a 54 - 41 percent Portman lead October 18;
  • Pennsylvania: McGinty at 48 percent to Toomey's 47 percent, compared to a 49 - 45 percent Toomey edge October 18.
"The award for stomaching the most television ads this election season almost certainly goes to the folks in North Carolina. Unlike the other major presidential swing states this election cycle, the Tar Heel state also has a gubernatorial contest to go along with its presidential and U.S. Senate contests," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"But North Carolina's Senate race, in which Sen. Richard Burr is in the race of his life, is not unique. It is one of a half-dozen Senate races that are very closely contested, including swing states Pennsylvania, and Florida. Former presidential candidate Marco Rubio has opened a 50 - 44 percent lead in Florida, but his fellow GOP incumbent, Pat Toomey, is on the low side of a 48 - 47 percent barn-burner."

Florida

Florida early voters tip to Murphy over Rubio 50 - 45 percent.

Rubio leads 51 - 43 percent among women likely voters and gets 49 percent of men to Murphy's 46 percent. White voters back Rubio 58 - 37 percent, while non-white voters go to Murphy 59 - 37 percent.

Rubio leads 87 - 7 percent among Republicans and 54 - 38 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Murphy 83 - 15 percent.

"Candidates with a 16-point lead among independent voters rarely lose, and Sen. Rubio, who has that edge over U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, appears to be pulling away from the challenger. But anything is possible," Brown said.

North Carolina

North Carolina early voters back Ross over Burr 60 - 35 percent.

Women likely voters back Ross 54 - 42 percent. Men go 48 percent for Burr and 44 percent for Ross. White voters back Burr 60 - 36 percent while non-white voters back Ross 78 - 14 percent.

Ross leads 92 - 6 percent among Democrats, as Republicans go to Burr 90 - 8 percent. Independent voters are divided, with 46 percent for Burr and 43 percent for Ross.

In the North Carolina governor's race, early voters back State Attorney General Roy Cooper over Republican incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory 57 - 38 percent.

Men back McCrory 50 - 45 percent, while women back Cooper 51 - 45 percent. White voters back McCrory 59 - 37 percent, while non-white voters back Cooper 73 - 22 percent.

McCrory leads 86 - 11 percent among Republicans and 51 - 41 percent among independent voters. Democrats go to Cooper 90 - 9 percent. Quinnipiac University Poll/November 3, 2016 - page 3

"The race between incumbent Sen. Richard Burr and Deborah Ross has gone back and forth for months. She carries the narrowest of leads into the final days of the campaign. The governor's race is even tighter with Democratic challenger Roy Cooper and incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory separated by just two points," Brown said.

Ohio

Ohio early voters are divided, with 50 percent for Strickland and 46 percent for Portman.

Portman leads 54 - 38 percent among women and 57 - 37 percent among men. He wins Republicans 96 - 2 percent and independent voters 60 - 33 percent. Democrats back Strickland 77 - 17 percent.

"Sen. Rob Portman once trailed Democrat Ted Strickland, who had a name recognition edge because he had been governor. But Portman introduced himself to voters and he was soon solidly ahead," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

There is a wide gender gap in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race as women back McGinty 55 - 37 percent, while men back Toomey 57 - 39 percent.

Independent voters are evenly split, with 49 percent for Toomey and 48 percent for McGinty. McGinty leads 80 - 14 percent among Democrats, while Toomey takes Republicans 82 - 11 percent.

"Katie McGinty closes the gap and sends shivers through the GOP. It's a tossup for what many thought was a safe Republican Senate seat six months ago," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Could Sen. Pat Toomey go down and help tip the Senate perilously back toward Democratic control? It could happen."

From October 27 - November 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 626 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points;
  • 602 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
  • 589 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
  • 612 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll


5a. (FL only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Patrick Murphy the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Murphy or Rubio?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Murphy               44%     7%    83%    38%    46%    43%    40%    35%
Rubio                50     87     15     54     49     51     56     59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      -      1      1
DK/NA                 4      6      2      6      3      6      3      5
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    Early
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    Voters
 
Murphy               37%    38%    37%    59%    50%
Rubio                59     56     58     37     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      1      -
DK/NA                 2      6      4      3      5
 
 
5b. (NC only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Deborah Ross the Democrat and Richard Burr the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Ross or Burr?
                     NORTH CAROLINA LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Ross                 49%     8%    92%    43%    44%    54%    43%    30%
Burr                 45     90      6     46     48     42     52     67
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      2      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      2      2     10      6      4      5      2
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    Early
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    Voters
 
Ross                 26%    44%    36%    78%    60%
Burr                 68     54     60     14     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1
DK/NA                 6      2      3      7      4
 
 
5c. (OH only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Strickland or Portman?
                     OHIO LIKELY VOTERS...................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Strickland           38%     2%    77%    33%    37%    38%    37%    28%
Portman              56     96     17     60     57     54     59     65
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      1      -      1      -      1
DK/NA                 6      1      6      6      6      7      3      6
 
                     WHITE.....    Early
                     Men    Wom    Voters
 
Strickland           31%    33%    50%
Portman              62     63     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1
DK/NA                 7      3      3
 
 
5d. (PA only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Katie McGinty the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward McGinty or Toomey?
                     PENNSYLVANIA LIKELY VOTERS...........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
McGinty              48%    11%    80%    48%    39%    55%    50%    38%
Toomey               47     82     14     49     57     37     45     57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 5      6      6      3      3      7      3      5
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom
 
McGinty              37%    51%
Toomey               60     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -
DK/NA                 2      6
 
 
6. (NC only) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Roy Cooper the Democrat and Pat McCrory the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Cooper or McCrory?
                     NORTH CAROLINA LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cooper               49%    11%    90%    41%    45%    51%    48%    28%
McCrory              47     86      9     51     50     45     49     68
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      3      2      1      -      2
DK/NA                 3      2      1      4      3      2      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....           Non    Early
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht    Voters
 
Cooper               29%    43%    37%    73%    57%
McCrory              67     54     59     22     38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      2
DK/NA                 4      1      2      4      3
 
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
North Carolina: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Ohio: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Pennsylvania: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables