November 7, 2016 - Florida And North Carolina Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Rubio Up In Florida, North Carolina Senate Race Tied Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Additional Information

  • FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Trump 45, Johnson 2
  • NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 - Trump 45, Johnson 3
  • FLORIDA SENATE: Rubio 50 - Murphy 43
  • NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: Ross 47 - Burr 47
  • NORTH CAROLINA GOVERNOR: Cooper 50 - McCrory 47

One day before the 2016 Presidential Election, likely voter results in Florida and North Carolina, two states seen as critical to the final outcome, are too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

In Florida, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio leads U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, the Democratic challenger, 50 - 43 percent. The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Richard Burr and Democratic challenger Deborah Ross is a 47 - 47 percent dead heat, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Races which list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates show:
  • Florida: Clinton gets 46 percent to Trump's 45 percent, with 3 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 1 percent for Green party candidate Jill Stein, virtually unchanged from November 2 results;
  • North Carolina: Clinton at 47 percent to Trump's 45 percent, with 3 percent for Johnson. Clinton had 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent November 2.
"After hundreds of millions of dollars and untold man-hours, and woman-hours, of campaigning, it would be fitting if the entire country broke into a chorus of "It's beginning to look like 2000," in the two states that matter most - Florida and North Carolina," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"As the 2016 presidential race hits the finish line, both Florida and North Carolina are virtual ties with Hillary Clinton at 46 percent in Florida and 47 percent in North Carolina and Donald Trump at 45 percent in each state," Brown added.

"There is no realistic scenario under which Trump can win the White House without those two states, while Clinton might get there without them, but it's not a road she wants to travel. While neither of these states is likely to be as close as the 548 votes in Florida that decided the 2000 election, both states could keep the country up counting ballots well into Wednesday morning and perhaps beyond."

In the North Carolina governor's race, State Attorney General Roy Cooper, the Democratic challenger, has 50 percent to Republican incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory's 47 percent.

Florida

Hillary Clinton has 47 percent of Florida voters who already have cast ballots, with 43 percent for Trump.

Independent likely voters are split with 45 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Trump. Trump leads 86 - 7 percent among Republicans, while Clinton takes Democrats 85 - 10 percent.

White voters back Trump 57 - 34 percent while non-white voters back Clinton 68 - 23 percent. Women go to Clinton 50 - 42 percent, while Trump leads among men 48 - 40 percent.

In the Florida Senate race, early voters go 48 percent for Rubio and 46 percent for Murphy.

Sen. Marco Rubio's lead is based on a 55 - 39 percent lead among independent likely voters. Republicans back the incumbent 93 - 3 percent, while Democrats back the challenger 88 - 8 percent.

Rubio leads 56 - 40 percent among men and 60 - 34 percent among white voters. Women are divided 46 - 46 percent. Murphy leads 61 - 33 percent among non-white voters.

"U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy is not getting the support a Democrat needs among women and non-white voters to overcome Sen. Marco Rubio's lead among men and white voters," Brown said.

North Carolina

North Carolina early voters go to Clinton 52 - 40 percent.

Trump has a 48 - 39 percent lead among independent likely voters and takes Republicans 89 - 5 percent. Democrats back Clinton 92 - 4 percent.

North Carolina women likely voters back Clinton 54 - 37 percent, while men back Trump 54 - 38 percent. White voters go to Trump 60 - 31 percent, while non-white voters back Clinton 81 - 13 percent.

Early voters in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race back Ross 51 - 43 percent.

Burr takes independent likely voters 51 - 44 percent and Republicans 94 - 4 percent. Ross leads among Democrats 89 - 5 percent.

The Republican leads 55 - 40 percent among men and 62 - 33 percent among white voters. The Democrat leads 54 - 41 percent among women and 78 - 17 percent among non- white voters.

In the North Carolina governor's race, Cooper leads 56 - 40 percent among early voters.

McCrory gets 49 percent of independent likely voters to Cooper's 46 percent. Republicans go to McCrory 90 - 7 percent, while Democrats back Cooper 91 - 6 percent.

The Republican leads 56 - 41 percent among men and 61 - 35 percent among white voters. The Democrat leads 57 - 39 percent among women and 81 - 17 percent among non- white voters.

"The U.S. Senate race in North Carolina is even closer than the presidential contest there, with Sen. Richard Burr and Democratic Challenger Deborah Ross deadlocked at 47 percent each," Brown said.

"When you throw in the governor's contest in which Democrat Roy Cooper is on the favorable side of a too-close to call race with GOP incumbent Pat McCrory, the state might consider changing its nickname from the Tar Heel State to the tied-up state."

From November 3 - 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 884 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points;
  • 870 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll






Florida
1. If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats, Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld the Libertarians, and Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka the Green party candidates, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine, Trump and Pence, Johnson and Weld, or Stein and Baraka?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton and Kaine    46%     7%    85%    45%    40%    50%    39%    29%
Trump and Pence      45     86     10     44     48     42     53     61
Johnson and Weld      2      1      1      4      3      2      2      5
Stein and Baraka      1      1      -      1      2      -      1      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      3      3      -      1      2
DK/NA                 5      5      4      4      4      6      5      3
 
                            Non    Early
                     Wht    Wht    Voters
 
Clinton and Kaine    34%    68%    47%
Trump and Pence      57     23     43
Johnson and Weld      3      1      2
Stein and Baraka      1      1      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1
DK/NA                 4      6      6
 
 
2. If the only candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats and Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine or Trump and Pence?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton and Kaine    46%     7%    86%    46%    41%    50%    40%    30%
Trump and Pence      46     88     10     45     50     42     54     62
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      -      5      4      2      2      5
DK/NA                 5      5      5      4      5      6      5      4
 
                            Non    Early
                     Wht    Wht    Voters
 
Clinton and Kaine    34%    69%    47%
Trump and Pence      58     24     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      3
DK/NA                 5      6      6
 
*Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Clinton or Trump Q1 Respondents who named Clinton or Trump in Q1 assigned to initial preference.


3. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Patrick Murphy the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Murphy or Rubio?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Murphy               43%     3%    88%    39%    40%    46%    39%    30%
Rubio                50     93      8     55     56     46     57     63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      2      2      2      1      5
DK/NA                 5      3      4      4      3      6      4      3
 
                            Non    Early
                     Wht    Wht    Voters
 
Murphy               34%    61%    46%
Rubio                60     33     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      -      2
DK/NA                 3      6      4
 


North Carolina
1. If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats, Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, and Gary Johnson and Bill Weld the Libertarians, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine, Trump and Pence, or Johnson and Weld?
                     NORTH CAROLINA LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton and Kaine    47%     5%    92%    39%    38%    54%    41%    23%
Trump and Pence      45     89      4     48     54     37     50     68
Johnson and Weld      3      2      -      6      5      2      5      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      1      2      2      3
DK/NA                 4      3      3      4      2      5      3      3
 
                            Non    Early
                     Wht    Wht    Voters
 
Clinton and Kaine    31%    81%    52%
Trump and Pence      60     13     40
Johnson and Weld      4      1      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2
DK/NA                 3      5      4
 
 
2. If the only candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats and Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine or Trump and Pence?
                     NORTH CAROLINA LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton and Kaine    48%     5%    92%    41%    39%    55%    41%    24%
Trump and Pence      45     89      4     48     54     37     51     68
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      1      6      3      3      4      5
DK/NA                 4      3      3      5      3      5      4      3
 
                            Non    Early
                     Wht    Wht    Voters
 
Clinton and Kaine    31%    82%    52%
Trump and Pence      60     13     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      -      4
DK/NA                 4      4      4
 
*Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Clinton or Trump Q1. Respondents who named Clinton or Trump in Q1 assigned to initial preference.


3. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Deborah Ross the Democrat and Richard Burr the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Ross or Burr?
                     NORTH CAROLINA LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Ross                 47%     4%    89%    44%    40%    54%    43%    25%
Burr                 47     94      5     51     55     41     53     68
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2      1      1      2
DK/NA                 4      1      4      4      4      4      3      5
 
                            Non    Early
                     Wht    Wht    Voters
 
Ross                 33%    78%    51%
Burr                 62     17     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2
DK/NA                 4      3      4
 
 
4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Roy Cooper the Democrat and Pat McCrory the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Cooper or McCrory?
                     NORTH CAROLINA LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cooper               50%     7%    91%    46%    41%    57%    46%    26%
McCrory              47     90      6     49     56     39     50     69
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      2      1      1      2      1
DK/NA                 3      3      2      3      2      4      2      4
 
                            Non    Early
                     Wht    Wht    Voters
 
Cooper               35%    81%    56%
McCrory              61     17     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1
DK/NA                 3      2      3
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
North Carolina: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables