February 20, 2020 - Swing State Poll: Trump Up In Wisconsin While Dems Have The Edge In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; In Michigan It's Close Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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In three critical Rust Belt states that delivered a victory to President Trump in 2016 by narrow margins, President Trump leads in head to head matchups against the top Democratic candidates in Wisconsin, but loses or trails within the margin of error in Pennsylvania matchups, and is locked in close races in Michigan, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University Poll released today. This is the first swing state poll of the 2020 presidential election cycle from the Quinnipiac University Poll that includes separate polls conducted simultaneously in key swing states. The poll was conducted from February 12th - 18th, prior to the February 19th Democratic primary debate.

WISCONSIN

Among registered voters in Wisconsin, President Trump leads the Democratic candidates by between 7 and 11 percentage points in head to head election matchups:
  • Trump tops Senator Amy Klobuchar 50 - 39 percent;
  • Trump leads Senator Elizabeth Warren 51 - 41 percent;
  • Trump beats former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg 49 - 41 percent;
  • Trump tops former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 49 - 41 percent;
  • Trump defeats Senator Bernie Sanders 50 - 43 percent;
  • Trump is ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden 49 - 42 percent.
PENNSYLVANIA

In Pennsylvania, the picture is nearly reversed. Among registered voters in Pennsylvania, President Trump trails Biden, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg by 6 to 8 percentage points in head to head election matchups, while Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren are in tight races with the president:
  • Biden is ahead of Trump 50 - 42 percent;
  • Klobuchar leads Trump 49 - 42 percent;
  • Bloomberg leads Trump 48 - 42 percent;
  • Sanders has 48 percent and Trump gets 44 percent;
  • Buttigieg receives 47 percent and Trump has 43 percent;
  • Warren gets 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent.
MICHIGAN

Among registered voters in Michigan, the Democratic candidates range from narrowly ahead to essentially tied with President Trump in head to head election matchups:
  • Sanders narrowly tops Trump 48 - 43 percent;
  • Bloomberg has a slight lead over Trump 47 - 42 percent;
  • Biden has 47 percent and Trump gets 43 percent;
  • Warren gets 45 percent, while Trump receives 43 percent;
  • Buttigieg gets 45 percent and Trump has 44 percent;
  • Klobuchar receives 45 percent to Trump's 44 percent.
"Three different states, three different scenarios, one constant - the economy. It's a top issue for voters, and it's giving President Trump a strong tailwind. Wisconsin voters give him a job approval rating above 50 percent, higher than what he receives nationally and in Pennsylvania and Michigan. These Wisconsin numbers are a red warning sign for Democrats that rebuilding the 'blue wall' in 2020 may not be so easy. But it's a long way to November," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

President Trump has a split favorability rating in Wisconsin with 50 percent of voters saying they have a favorable opinion of him, while 47 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of him. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, the president is negatively viewed by more than half of registered voters.

The Democratic presidential candidates are mostly negatively viewed by voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

"Between President Trump and the Democratic presidential candidates, voters aren't showing much enthusiasm about any candidate. Getting a split favorability rating is the high water mark," added Snow.

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Voters in all three states are in sync in naming the three most important issues in deciding who to vote for in the presidential election. Overall, the economy tops the list among voters, followed by health care and climate change:
  • Wisconsin: 31 percent say economy, 27 percent say health care, 12 percent say climate change;
  • Pennsylvania: 29 percent say economy, 26 percent say health care, 13 percent say climate change;
  • Michigan: 35 percent say economy, 24 percent say health care, 12 percent say climate change.
When broken down by political party, however, there are differences in the top three issues in each state.

"The issues voters choose as their most important show a big divide. Voters citing the economy as the number one issue are voting overwhelmingly for President Trump. But the exact opposite is true for voters who say health care or climate change are their top issues, who are voting overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates," Snow said.

TRUMP APPROVAL RATING

When it comes to how voters view the job President Trump is doing, the president scores his highest job approval rating among voters in Wisconsin, 51 - 46 percent. In both Michigan and Pennsylvania, his job approval is underwater as more voters disapprove than approve of the job he's doing. In Michigan, voters disapprove 54 - 42 percent. In Pennsylvania, voters disapprove 52 - 44 percent.

THE ECONOMY

The president gets high marks for his handling of the economy. Wisconsin voters approve 59 - 38 percent of President Trump's handling of the economy, Pennsylvania voters approve 57 - 41 percent, and Michigan voters approve 52 - 44 percent.

Looking at how voters rate their own personal financial situations compared to 2016, the last presidential election, more than half in each state say they are better off:
  • Wisconsin: 62 percent say better off, 20 percent say worse off, 16 percent volunteer the same;
  • Pennsylvania: 57 percent say better off, 20 percent say worse off, 21 percent volunteer the same;
  • Michigan: 55 percent say better off, 21 percent say worse off, 22 percent volunteer the same.
Asked to rate their state's economy, Wisconsin voters are the most positive:
  • Wisconsin: 76 percent say excellent or good, 23 percent say not so good or poor;
  • Pennsylvania: 70 percent say excellent or good, 29 percent say not so good or poor;
  • Michigan: 63 percent say excellent or good, 34 percent say not so good or poor.
At least half of all voters in each state say the economy is staying the same, at least one-third in each state say it's getting better, and between 11 and 15 percent in each state say it's getting worse.

MICHIGAN SENATE RACE

In the Michigan Senate race, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads Republican John James, 45 - 39 percent.

From February 12th - 18th, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 845 self-identified registered voters in Michigan with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points;
  • 849 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points;
  • 823 self-identified registered voters in Wisconsin with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
A lot                55%    61%    56%
Some                 22     24     25
Only a little        16      9     13
None at all           7      6      5
DK/NA                 -      -      1
 
 
2. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Biden                47%    50%    42%
Trump                43     42     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      3
DK/NA                 3      3      4
 
 
3. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Sanders              48%    48%    43%
Trump                43     44     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      3
DK/NA                 3      2      4
 
 
4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Elizabeth Warren the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Warren               45%    47%    41%
Trump                43     44     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      3
DK/NA                 4      3      4
 
 
5. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Pete Buttigieg the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Buttigieg            45%    47%    41%
Trump                44     43     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      3
DK/NA                 3      2      5
 
 
6. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Amy Klobuchar the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Klobuchar            45%    49%    39%
Trump                44     42     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      4
DK/NA                 4      4      6
 
 
7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Michael Bloomberg the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Bloomberg            47%    48%    41%
Trump                42     42     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      3
DK/NA                 4      3      5
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Favorable            39%    43%    34%
Unfavorable          51     51     54
Hvn't hrd enough      8      5     10
REFUSED               1      1      1
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Favorable            44%    41%    39%
Unfavorable          49     52     52
Hvn't hrd enough      5      5      7
REFUSED               2      2      2
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Elizabeth Warren favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Favorable            31%    34%    32%
Unfavorable          46     50     49
Hvn't hrd enough     21     15     18
REFUSED               3      1      1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Pete Buttigieg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Favorable            33%    36%    32%
Unfavorable          31     34     36
Hvn't hrd enough     33     28     31
REFUSED               2      1      1
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Amy Klobuchar favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Favorable            27%    32%    28%
Unfavorable          24     27     28
Hvn't hrd enough     48     41     41
REFUSED               2      1      2
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Favorable            31%    29%    25%
Unfavorable          41     48     45
Hvn't hrd enough     27     22     29
REFUSED               2      1      2
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Favorable            43%    44%    50%
Unfavorable          54     52     47
Hvn't hrd enough      1      4      1
REFUSED               2      1      2
 
 
15. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for president: the economy, immigration, health care, climate change, gun policy, or the Supreme Court?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Economy              35%    29%    31%
Immigration           9     10      8
Health care          24     26     27
Climate change       12     13     12
Gun policy            7     11      8
Supreme Court         8      8      8
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      2      1
DK/NA                 4      1      4
 
 
16. (Michigan only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Gary Peters the Democrat and John James the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Peters               45%     -      -
James                39      -      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      -
DK/NA                12      -      -
 
 
17. (Michigan only) Is your opinion of Gary Peters favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Favorable            37%     -      -
Unfavorable          20      -      -
Hvn't hrd enough     43      -      -
REFUSED               1      -      -
 
 
18. (Michigan only) Is your opinion of John James favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Favorable            33%     -      -
Unfavorable          15      -      -
Hvn't hrd enough     51      -      -
REFUSED               -      -      -
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Approve              42%    44%    51%
Disapprove           54     52     46
DK/NA                 4      4      3
 
 
19a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q19) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Approve strongly     31%    34%    37%
Approve smwht        10      9     14
Disapprove smwht      8      7      5
Disapprove strongly  46     45     41
DK/NA                 4      4      3
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the economy?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Approve              52%    57%    59%
Disapprove           44     41     38
DK/NA                 3      2      4
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - trade?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Approve              46%    47%    53%
Disapprove           49     49     41
DK/NA                 5      4      5
 
 
22. Would you describe the state of [Michigan's/Pennsylvania's/Wisconsin's] economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Excellent             7%    12%    17%
Good                 56     58     59
Not so good          28     22     17
Poor                  6      7      6
DK/NA                 2      1      1
 
 
23. Do you think [Michigan's/Pennsylvania's/Wisconsin's] economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Better               36%    34%    33%
Worse                11     12     15
The same             51     53     50
DK/NA                 2      2      1
 
 
24. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially today than you were in 2016?
                     MI     PA     WI
 
Better off           55%    57%    62%
Worse off            21     20     20
SAME(VOL)            22     21     16
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
Additional info by state:
Michigan: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Pennsylvania: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Wisconsin: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail