November 21, 2013 - Florida's Scott Starts Reelection Year 7 Points Down, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Divided On Marijuana For Fun, But Back Med Use 5-1 PDF format Florida Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican, enters his reelection year trailing former Gov. Charlie Crist, the Republican-turned independent-turned Democrat, 47 - 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 47 - 37 percent Crist lead in a June 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, and a 50 - 34 percent Crist lead in March. Gov. Scott gets a negative 42 - 47 percent job approval rating, compared to a 43 - 44 percent score June 18, Scott's best score ever. Voters approve 53 - 36 percent of the job Crist did as governor. Scott tops Democrat Nan Rich 43 - 35 percent. In a Democratic primary, Crist tops Rich 60 - 12 percent. Scott does not deserve to be reelected, voters say 53 - 37 percent. Saying no to four more years are Democrats, 83 - 9 percent, and independent voters, 56 - 36 percent. Republicans say yes 70 - 20 percent. Women say no, 57 - 32 percent, and men agree, 49 - 43 percent. In the matchup with Crist, Scott takes Republicans 80 - 11 percent while Crist takes Democrats 86 - 4 percent. Independent voters go 44 percent for Crist and 41 percent for Scott. "Former Gov. Charlie Crist remains ahead in the race to be the state's next governor, but his lead over incumbent Gov. Rick Scott has narrowed since March," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But Crist still does better among Democrats than Scott does among Republicans and holds his own among independents. The winner will be the one who does best among his own partisans and carries independents." Florida voters are divided 46 - 46 percent on whether Crist's party shifts are positive or negative. These same voters say 49 - 38 percent that Scott is not honest and trustworthy. Voters disapprove 46 - 36 percent of the way Scott is handling the state budget, but they are divided 43 - 44 percent on whether the budget is fair to them. "Voters currently think Crist was a good governor and are evenly split on whether they see his party switching as evidence he is a pragmatist or lacks core beliefs," Brown said. "To catch Crist, Scott is going to have to convince Florida voters that Crist was a bad governor and a political opportunist. "And he is planning on spending tens of millions of dollars on television adds to make that argument. This will be an intensely negative campaign on both sides. The survivor will be the candidate voters dislike least on Election Day." Marijuana Use Florida voters support 82 - 16 percent allowing adults to legally use marijuana for medical use if it is prescribed by a doctor. Support is overwhelming among every group surveyed, ranging from 70 - 26 percent among Republicans to 90 - 10 percent among voters 18 to 29 years old. Voters are divided 48 - 46 percent on allowing adults to legally possess small amounts of marijuana for personal use. There is a gender gap as men support so-called "recreational use" 52 - 44 percent, while women are opposed by a small 49 - 44 percent margin. "If the folks who want to legalize medical marijuana in Florida can get their proposal on the ballot, they are overwhelmingly favored to prevail next November," Brown said. Florida voters continue to support the "Stand Your Ground" law 60 - 34 percent. Support is 66 - 29 percent among white voters and 56 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters, with black voters opposed 56 - 35 percent. From November 12 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,646 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 544 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Charlie Crist and Nan Rich, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Crist 60% 65% 58% Rich 12 9 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 6 5 DK/NA 20 17 22 4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Crist 47% 11% 86% 44% 43% 50% 39% 83% 51% Scott 40 80 4 41 46 34 48 3 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 4 DK/NA 8 5 7 9 5 10 8 8 8 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Crist 49% 46% 50% 51% 40% 54% 47% 50% 41% Scott 39 40 33 39 51 27 39 39 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 3 3 6 3 3 3 DK/NA 7 8 10 5 4 11 9 6 8 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 2013 2013 2013 Crist 47 47 50 Scott 40 37 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 DK/NA 8 12 12 5. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Nan Rich the Democrat, and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Rich 35% 4% 75% 28% 29% 40% 27% 68% 41% Scott 43 84 7 44 50 36 50 11 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 2 6 4 2 3 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 4 6 4 5 4 5 6 DK/NA 14 9 12 18 12 16 15 12 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Rich 40% 33% 37% 38% 32% 45% 32% 38% 32% Scott 40 44 37 46 50 27 45 44 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 5 4 4 6 5 4 3 DK/NA 12 15 17 10 12 19 15 11 16 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Nan Rich the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? Nov 21 Jun 18 2013 2013 Rich 35 36 Scott 43 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 DK/NA 14 18 6. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 39% 74% 8% 39% 46% 32% 44% 15% 38% Unfavorable 42 15 69 44 39 45 41 54 39 Hvn't hrd enough 16 10 22 14 12 20 14 27 20 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 3 2 2 4 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 40% 39% 33% 39% 50% 25% 39% 40% 44% Unfavorable 52 38 41 47 43 42 44 47 37 Hvn't hrd enough 6 21 23 12 6 29 16 12 17 REFUSED 2 3 3 2 1 3 2 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (* Low also 28% Aug 2010) FAVORABLE..... High Low Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Feb 02 Jun 18 Feb 02 2013 2013 2013 2012 2011 2013 2011* Favorable 39 40 33 31 28 40 28 Unfavorable 42 42 46 43 24 42 24 Hvn't hrd enough 16 16 18 24 45 16 45 REFUSED 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 7. Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 41% 17% 69% 38% 38% 43% 37% 60% 39% Unfavorable 39 69 11 41 46 34 47 11 31 Hvn't hrd enough 18 11 19 19 14 21 14 27 28 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 44% 39% 40% 47% 38% 37% 38% 47% 41% Unfavorable 45 37 32 40 51 25 41 39 43 Hvn't hrd enough 9 22 26 12 10 38 19 12 14 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 - 3 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Aug 19 Feb 19 Nov 21 2013 2013 2013 2012 2010 2009 2013 Favorable 41 48 49 47 53 68 41 Unfavorable 39 31 30 33 33 21 39 Hvn't hrd enough 18 18 20 19 10 9 18 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 4 3 2 8. Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 8% 4% 16% 4% 9% 7% 6% 12% 14% Unfavorable 5 7 1 7 8 3 6 - 8 Hvn't hrd enough 86 87 83 88 83 89 88 86 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 11% 7% 10% 8% 6% 12% 7% 9% 7% Unfavorable 6 5 5 4 9 5 6 4 5 Hvn't hrd enough 83 87 84 87 84 83 86 86 87 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Nov 21 Jun 18 Dec 19 2013 2013 2012 Favorable 8 7 6 Unfavorable 5 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 86 84 90 REFUSED 1 2 1 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 42% 71% 13% 44% 49% 35% 46% 20% 39% Disapprove 47 18 76 47 43 50 43 64 48 DK/NA 12 10 11 9 8 14 10 16 13 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 40% 43% 37% 42% 51% 28% 41% 44% 47% Disapprove 53 44 49 51 42 53 48 48 42 DK/NA 8 13 14 7 7 19 11 8 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 27 Jun 18 May 25 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2013 2011 Approve 42 43 36 36 35 43 29 Disapprove 47 44 49 45 48 44 57 DK/NA 12 13 15 19 17 13 14 24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 31% 52% 14% 29% 38% 24% 33% 18% 30% Disapprove 51 27 70 55 48 53 48 64 55 DK/NA 19 21 16 16 15 22 19 18 15 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 30% 31% 28% 34% 35% 33% 30% 30% 31% Disapprove 56 48 51 54 51 48 53 55 46 DK/NA 14 21 21 12 15 18 18 15 23 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 21 Jun 19 Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 Sep 23 Mar 20 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2004 2013 Approve 31 32 25 35 31 51 25 Disapprove 51 49 52 44 50 34 52 DK/NA 19 19 23 20 19 15 23 28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist handled his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 53% 40% 67% 55% 51% 55% 50% 62% 59% Disapprove 36 52 22 35 39 33 40 20 30 DK/NA 11 8 12 10 9 13 10 18 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 55% 52% 54% 58% 49% 50% 53% 56% 52% Disapprove 37 35 32 34 42 32 35 37 36 DK/NA 8 13 14 8 8 18 11 7 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist handled his job as Governor? (*High approve also 73% Mar 2007, **2010 and earlier "the way Charlie Crist is handling...") APPROVE....... High Low Nov 21 Aug 19 Jul 30 Jun 9 Apr 15 Jul 19 Apr 15 2013 2010** 2010 2010 2010 2007* 2010 Approve 53 56 53 57 49 73 49 Disapprove 36 35 37 35 39 11 39 DK/NA 11 10 10 8 12 16 12 29. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very satisfied 5% 13% 1% 4% 6% 5% 6% - 6% Smwht satisfied 43 61 30 39 48 38 44 48 35 Smwht dissatisfied 29 17 39 30 24 33 29 24 32 Very dissatisfied 22 9 28 26 20 23 20 25 27 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Very satisfied 6% 5% 5% 4% 9% 2% 4% 5% 8% Smwht satisfied 41 44 40 47 44 39 43 44 46 Smwht dissatisfied 29 29 30 30 26 34 30 28 26 Very dissatisfied 24 21 25 19 21 23 23 23 18 DK/NA - 1 1 - - 2 - - 2 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*combined High also 63% Sep 2004) VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 Feb 24 Sep 22 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2005* 2011 Very satisfied 5 5 4 6 5 15 4 Smwht satisfied 43 48 46 43 36 48 31 Smwht dissatisfied 29 28 31 33 34 22 29 Very dissatisfied 22 17 16 17 25 15 34 DK/NA 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 30. Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Deserves 37% 70% 9% 36% 43% 32% 42% 15% 35% No/Does not 53 20 83 56 49 57 49 76 58 DK/NA 10 9 7 8 8 11 10 9 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes/Deserves 34% 39% 33% 38% 43% 20% 36% 38% 46% No/Does not 59 50 56 56 52 64 56 54 46 DK/NA 7 11 11 6 5 16 8 8 8 TREND: Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 2013 2013 2013 2012 Yes/Deserves 37 35 32 30 No/Does not 53 50 55 52 DK/NA 10 15 13 18 31. Would you say that - Charlie Crist is honest and trustworthy or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes 40% 23% 60% 40% 39% 40% 36% 53% 46% No 42 64 19 45 48 36 47 18 42 DK/NA 18 13 21 15 12 24 17 29 12 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes 43% 38% 41% 43% 37% 32% 37% 43% 45% No 47 40 35 44 55 40 45 43 38 DK/NA 10 22 24 13 9 28 18 14 17 33. Would you say that - Rick Scott is honest and trustworthy or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes 38% 66% 16% 37% 45% 33% 42% 20% 34% No 49 23 71 53 48 50 46 62 53 DK/NA 13 11 13 11 8 18 12 17 13 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Yes 37% 39% 35% 40% 41% 24% 36% 41% 46% No 56 46 49 52 52 61 50 51 40 DK/NA 7 15 15 8 7 15 14 8 14 34. In the last three years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it shows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Positive thing 46% 13% 76% 49% 42% 50% 40% 67% 59% Negative thing 46 81 16 44 51 42 54 18 37 DK/NA 8 6 8 6 7 8 6 15 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Positive thing 50% 44% 50% 47% 42% 61% 46% 45% 41% Negative thing 45 47 40 48 55 28 47 50 51 DK/NA 4 9 10 4 4 11 7 5 7 TREND: In the last three years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it shows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist? Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 2013 2013 2013 Positive thing 46 47 50 Negative thing 46 44 40 DK/NA 8 9 10 38. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling the state budget? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 36% 66% 11% 34% 44% 28% 42% 15% 27% Disapprove 46 18 72 49 43 49 41 64 55 DK/NA 18 16 17 16 13 22 17 21 18 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 37% 36% 29% 42% 43% 14% 37% 39% 42% Disapprove 53 43 50 45 47 61 47 47 39 DK/NA 10 21 21 13 10 24 15 14 19 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling the state budget? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 Jun 20 May 25 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2011 Approve 36 35 34 32 38 38 30 Disapprove 46 48 50 47 48 48 59 DK/NA 18 17 15 20 14 14 11 39. Do you think the state budget is fair or unfair to people like you? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Fair 43% 64% 25% 45% 52% 36% 50% 18% 36% Unfair 44 23 65 40 36 51 36 69 56 DK/NA 13 13 10 15 13 13 14 13 8 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Fair 49% 41% 36% 46% 56% 34% 41% 47% 50% Unfair 40 45 52 41 35 53 48 44 33 DK/NA 11 14 12 13 9 14 11 9 17 TREND: Do you think the state budget is fair or unfair to people like you? (*new state budget, **High also 45% Dec 2012) FAIR.......... High Low Nov 21 Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 Jun 18 May 25 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2013** 2011* Fair 43 45 40 45 40 45 29 Unfair 44 42 43 39 48 42 54 DK/NA 13 13 18 16 13 13 16 43. Do you support or oppose allowing adults in Florida to legally possess small amounts of marijuana for personal use? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 48% 30% 55% 57% 52% 44% 49% 44% 49% Oppose 46 64 39 37 44 49 45 51 48 DK/NA 6 5 6 6 4 8 6 5 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Support 51% 47% 45% 53% 54% 65% 50% 53% 32% Oppose 45 47 49 42 41 29 45 42 60 DK/NA 4 6 6 4 5 6 5 5 8 44. Do you support or oppose allowing adults in Florida to legally use marijuana for medical purposes if their doctor prescribes it? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 82% 70% 87% 88% 83% 80% 83% 80% 78% Oppose 16 26 11 11 15 16 14 17 20 DK/NA 3 4 2 1 2 3 3 3 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Support 83% 81% 81% 83% 83% 90% 79% 83% 79% Oppose 15 16 16 15 15 10 18 15 17 DK/NA 2 3 3 1 2 - 3 3 4 45. Florida has a law that says a person is legally entitled to fight back with deadly force if they feel threatened, even if they could retreat instead. Do you support or oppose that law? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 60% 83% 36% 63% 67% 54% 66% 35% 56% Oppose 34 11 58 33 30 38 29 56 36 DK/NA 6 6 6 4 4 8 5 8 8 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Support 55% 63% 55% 61% 68% 57% 68% 60% 54% Oppose 42 30 36 37 31 35 30 37 37 DK/NA 3 7 9 3 1 8 3 4 9 DENSITY............ GUN HSHOLD Urban Suburb Rural Yes No Support 53% 61% 75% 75% 48% Oppose 41 34 20 21 45 DK/NA 6 6 5 4 8 TREND: Florida has a law that says a person is legally entitled to fight back with deadly force if they feel threatened, even if they could retreat instead. Do you support or oppose that law? Nov 21 Jun 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 May 24 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 Support 60 57 56 56 56 Oppose 34 36 36 37 35 DK/NA 6 6 8 8 8 Demographic Summary
