May 1, 2014 - Jeb Bush Is Top Dog In Florida 2016 GOP Pack, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Clinton On Top, Despite Bad Obama Grades PDF format Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is way out in front over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and other possible Republican candidates for the 2016 presidential nomination in his home state, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But despite President Barack Obama's underwater job approval rating, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads a list of Republicans by margins of 8 percentage points or higher, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Gov. Bush leads the Florida Republican primary with 27 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky with 14 percent, Sen. Rubio at 11 percent, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie at 7 percent, with 6 percent each for Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan. No other candidate tops 4 percent and 16 percent are undecided. Secretary Clinton sweeps the Democratic primary with 64 percent, followed by Vice President Joseph Biden with 11 percent and Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 6 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent and 13 percent are undecided. "With former Gov. Jeb Bush making noises about a possible 2016 candidacy, his support among Republicans in the Sunshine State appears to be solidifying. He still trails Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup, but he is the only potential GOP nominee who gets within single digits of her," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "For a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy in Florida, November 2016 can't get here soon enough. Not only does she out point the entire field of potential Democratic wannabes for the party nomination put together, but her favorability numbers among all voters is near 60 percent." "The Republicans angling to oppose Secretary Clinton, should she run, are less known and less liked," Brown added. Clinton tops several possible Republican candidates in Florida: 49 - 41 percent over Bush; 52 - 40 percent over Rubio; 55 - 37 percent over Paul; 52 - 34 percent over Christie; 56 - 36 percent over Ryan; 57 - 31 percent over Cruz; 53 - 35 percent over Huckabee. By a 58 - 37 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Bush gets a 53 - 35 percent favorability, with 43 - 36 favorable for Rubio, split scores of 34 - 31 percent for Paul, 37 - 35 percent for Christie and 33 - 36 percent for Ryan, a narrow 36 - 32 percent favorability for Huckabee and a negative 19 - 30 percent favorability for Cruz. President Obama Approval Florida voters give President Obama a negative 46 - 50 percent job approval rating, inching up from negative grades of 42 - 53 percent in a January 31 Quinnipiac University poll and 40 - 57 percent in a November 22 survey. Women are divided with 49 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving. Men give the president a negative 42 - 54 percent grade. Obama gets negative grades of 8 - 91 percent from Republicans and 43 - 52 percent from independent voters while Democrats approve 81 - 16 percent. "President Barack Obama remains under water in Florida, a state he twice carried. At this point, though, his unpopularity does not appear to be hurting Hillary Clinton," Brown said. Florida voters approve 47 - 39 percent of the job Sen. Rubio is doing and give U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson a 46 - 32 percent job approval rating. From April 23 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,413 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 494 Republicans and 501 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1a. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Bush 27% 29% 26% Christie 7 6 9 Cruz 6 5 6 Huckabee 6 5 7 Jindal 1 1 1 Paul 14 19 7 Rubio 11 9 14 Ryan 6 7 4 Walker 4 5 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 DK/NA 16 14 19 TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2013 Bush 27 25 22 Christie 7 9 14 Cruz 6 9 12 Huckabee 6 na na Jindal 1 3 3 Paul 14 11 9 Rubio 11 16 18 Ryan 6 5 6 Walker 4 5 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 DK/NA 16 14 12 1b. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer, and Elizabeth Warren, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Biden 11% 13% 10% Clinton 64 58 68 Cuomo 1 2 1 O'Malley 1 - 1 Schweitzer 1 - 1 Warren 6 8 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 13 15 11 TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer, and Elizabeth Warren, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2013 Biden 11 9 9 Clinton 64 64 70 Cuomo 1 1 2 O'Malley 1 1 1 Schweitzer 1 na na Warren 6 5 4 Warner na 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 DK/NA 13 16 10 7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 49% 7% 91% 47% 42% 56% 59% 49% 52% 44% Bush 41 87 6 42 47 36 28 41 40 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 4 2 1 DK/NA 5 4 2 7 5 6 8 5 5 4 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 Jun 19 Mar 21 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 Clinton 49 49 47 50 51 Bush 41 43 45 43 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 5 4 4 4 5 8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 52% 11% 90% 51% 47% 56% 43% 55% 57% 49% Rubio 40 85 6 36 44 35 41 37 36 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 1 3 1 2 DK/NA 5 3 3 8 4 6 13 3 5 4 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 Jun 19 Mar 21 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 Clinton 52 51 50 53 52 Rubio 40 41 43 41 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 1 DK/NA 5 5 4 4 6 9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 55% 12% 94% 55% 50% 59% 54% 59% 56% 50% Paul 37 81 3 34 42 32 34 33 36 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 3 3 2 1 4 1 2 DK/NA 5 4 2 7 4 6 9 3 5 5 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2013 Clinton 55 53 51 Paul 37 38 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 DK/NA 5 5 6 10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 52% 10% 91% 53% 48% 56% 58% 54% 56% 46% Christie 34 77 4 31 38 31 22 34 31 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 1 5 6 4 4 6 4 4 DK/NA 7 8 4 9 6 9 15 3 7 7 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2013 Clinton 52 51 45 Christie 34 35 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 4 DK/NA 7 7 8 11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 56% 10% 95% 57% 51% 60% 61% 58% 58% 50% Ryan 36 85 3 31 40 31 24 34 35 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 4 1 2 DK/NA 5 3 2 7 4 6 9 3 5 4 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2013 Clinton 56 52 50 Ryan 36 39 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 DK/NA 5 6 4 12. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 57% 14% 94% 59% 53% 61% 59% 60% 61% 50% Cruz 31 74 2 26 35 27 20 30 29 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 DK/NA 7 7 3 10 5 9 15 4 6 7 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2013 Clinton 57 54 52 Cruz 31 34 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 DK/NA 7 8 7 13. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 53% 12% 92% 52% 49% 57% 52% 55% 58% 48% Huckabee 35 79 4 33 38 33 27 35 33 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 3 1 4 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 3 5 2 4 5 2 3 DK/NA 6 4 3 9 5 7 13 3 5 5 14. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 58% 18% 93% 61% 54% 62% 62% 62% 59% 52% Unfavorable 37 79 2 35 42 33 27 36 35 45 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 4 3 3 4 11 1 4 2 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 - 2 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (*Low also 44% Jun 2007) FAVORABLE..... High Low May 01 Jun 19 Mar 21 May 22 May 01 Mar 21 Apr 02 2014 2013 2013 2008 2008 2013 2008* Favorable 58 57 62 48 49 62 44 Unfavorable 37 38 33 43 40 33 45 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 4 5 7 4 8 REFUSED 1 1 2 4 4 2 4 15. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 53% 84% 34% 52% 54% 52% 38% 54% 53% 60% Unfavorable 35 9 56 34 34 35 37 37 37 29 Hvn't hrd enough 11 7 10 13 10 12 25 8 9 9 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 2 1 - 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 01 Jun 19 Mar 21 2014 2013 2013 Favorable 53 54 50 Unfavorable 35 33 35 Hvn't hrd enough 11 11 13 REFUSED 1 2 2 16. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 43% 80% 19% 38% 46% 40% 45% 41% 41% 47% Unfavorable 36 9 60 37 35 37 23 37 42 37 Hvn't hrd enough 19 10 21 22 17 21 31 21 16 16 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 44% May 2012) FAVORABLE..... High Low May 01 Jun 19 Mar 21 May 23 Feb 03 Jun 19 Apr 16 2014 2013 2013 2012 2011 2013* 2009 Favorable 43 44 41 44 41 44 10 Unfavorable 36 33 34 24 17 33 11 Hvn't hrd enough 19 22 24 31 41 22 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 17. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 34% 60% 9% 36% 42% 27% 33% 35% 33% 33% Unfavorable 31 11 52 28 29 33 13 29 35 37 Hvn't hrd enough 35 28 38 36 28 40 54 35 31 29 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 18. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 37% 53% 28% 37% 41% 35% 27% 35% 40% 41% Unfavorable 35 24 40 36 35 34 19 40 37 33 Hvn't hrd enough 26 21 30 25 23 30 54 24 20 23 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 - 1 2 3 19. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 33% 71% 7% 29% 39% 28% 28% 31% 33% 37% Unfavorable 36 4 61 37 37 35 32 38 38 35 Hvn't hrd enough 30 24 31 33 23 37 39 30 28 28 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 20. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 19% 40% 2% 16% 24% 13% 14% 17% 18% 23% Unfavorable 30 13 45 30 34 27 10 31 34 34 Hvn't hrd enough 51 47 52 53 42 59 76 51 48 43 REFUSED - - - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 21. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 36% 72% 10% 34% 39% 33% 26% 33% 35% 42% Unfavorable 32 10 48 32 35 30 20 34 36 32 Hvn't hrd enough 31 17 41 33 25 36 52 32 26 24 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 - 3 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 01 Dec 05 Feb 07 2014 2007 2007 Favorable 36 26 7 Unfavorable 32 16 11 Hvn't hrd enough 31 56 82 REFUSED 1 3 1 24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 47% 82% 26% 40% 51% 43% 49% 48% 41% 51% Disapprove 39 8 60 44 38 39 37 38 44 36 DK/NA 14 11 14 16 10 17 15 14 15 12 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low May 01 Jan 30 Nov 22 Jun 19 Mar 20 May 23 Feb 03 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2012 2011 Approve 47 52 48 51 48 54 42 Disapprove 39 37 39 35 33 27 20 DK/NA 14 11 13 14 19 19 37 25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 46% 29% 66% 45% 44% 48% 43% 42% 51% 47% Disapprove 32 48 16 30 37 27 31 34 28 34 DK/NA 22 23 18 25 20 25 26 24 21 19 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004) APPROVE....... High Low May 01 Jan 30 Nov 22 Jun 19 Mar 20 Feb 06 Aug 04 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2007 2011* Approve 46 48 43 51 49 54 42 Disapprove 32 30 37 29 28 18 35 DK/NA 22 21 21 20 23 28 23 26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 46% 8% 81% 43% 42% 49% 61% 44% 48% 40% Disapprove 50 91 16 52 54 47 36 51 50 56 DK/NA 4 1 3 5 3 4 4 6 2 3 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 Jun 19 Mar 21 Feb 19 Sep 22 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 2009 2011 Approve 46 42 40 47 50 64 39 Disapprove 50 53 57 48 45 23 57 DK/NA 4 5 3 5 5 13 5 Demographic Summary Additional Crosstabs
