July 24, 2014 - Obama In Slump, But Clinton Scores In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Rubio Narrows GOP Gap As Jeb Bush Sags PDF format Even though President Barack Obama remains stuck in a swamp in Florida, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dominates the 2016 presidential landscape, sweeping the Democratic field and topping former Gov. Jeb Bush and other possible Republican contenders by margins of 7 to 21 percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Gov. Bush gets 21 percent in a Republican presidential primary in Florida, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio with 18 percent, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 10 percent, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky with 8 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 7 percent and New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie with 6 percent. No other candidate tops 5 percent and 13 percent of Republicans remain undecided. This compares with results of a May 1 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University, showing Bush leading the Republican pack with 27 percent, followed by Paul with 14 percent and Rubio with 11 percent. Secretary Clinton takes 67 percent of Democratic presidential primary voters, compared to 64 percent May 1, followed by Vice President Joseph Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 8 percent each. Another 11 percent are undecided. "Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may be taking some criticism recently in the news media and among some liberal Democratic precincts, but nothing has changed among average voters in Florida where she remains queen of the political prom," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Two-thirds of Democrats say she is their candidate for 2016 and none of the others even makes it into double digits. Sunshine Staters are on top when Florida Republicans are asked their top 2016 choice, but former Gov. Jeb Bush slips a little and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio just about caught up with him." Florida voters back Clinton over Bush 49 - 42 percent in the 2016 White House race. The Democrat tops other Republicans by wider margins: 53 - 39 percent over Rubio; 53 - 37 percent over Paul; 54 - 33 percent over Christie; 51 - 38 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. Independent voters back Clinton over Bush by a narrow 45 - 41 percent. Against other Republicans, her lead among independent voters is 16 to 20 percentage points. Clinton's lead among women runs from 56 - 36 percent over Bush to 61 - 28 percent over Christie. Florida voters give Clinton a 58 - 38 percent favorability rating, compared to 48 - 37 percent for Bush, 43 - 35 percent for Rubio, 32 - 28 percent for Paul, 35 - 36 percent for Christie and 33 - 30 percent for Ryan. "Secretary Clinton leads the Republicans against whom she is matched by double digits with the exception of former Gov. Bush who trails her by 7 points," Brown said. "Inside the Beltway they may be talking about Mrs. Clinton's potential weaknesses should she run in 2016. But at this point in Florida, the nation's largest presidential swing state, her assets overwhelm any vulnerabilities." President Obama's Approval Florida voters give President Obama a negative 44 - 52 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 46 - 50 percent May 1. Negative ratings are 7 - 92 percent among Republicans and 40 - 54 percent among independent voters, while Democrats approve 84 - 13 percent. Men give a negative 38 - 59 percent rating, compared to women's slightly positive 49 - 46 percent. Voters approve 49 - 37 percent of the job Rubio is doing and give U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson a 45 - 32 percent score. From July 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,251 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 451 Republicans and 457 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1a. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, John Kasich and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Bush 21% 23% 19% Christie 6 5 6 Cruz 10 11 9 Huckabee 7 5 10 Jindal 1 2 1 Paul 8 13 3 Rubio 18 14 22 Ryan 2 2 1 Walker 2 3 2 Perry 5 4 5 Kasich 1 1 1 Santorum 1 2 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 DK/NA 13 11 15 TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, John Kasich and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........ Jul 24 May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2014 2013 Bush 21 27 25 22 Christie 6 7 9 14 Cruz 10 6 9 12 Huckabee 7 6 na na Jindal 1 1 3 3 Paul 8 14 11 9 Rubio 18 11 16 18 Ryan 2 6 5 6 Walker 2 4 5 2 Perry 5 na na na Kasich 1 na na na Santorum 1 na na na SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 1 DK/NA 13 16 14 12 1b. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer and Elizabeth Warren, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Biden 8% 7% 9% Clinton 67 67 67 Cuomo 1 1 1 O'Malley - 1 - Schweitzer - 1 - Warren 8 11 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 DK/NA 11 9 12 TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, Brian Schweitzer and Elizabeth Warren, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......... Jul 24 May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2014 2013 Biden 8 11 9 9 Clinton 67 64 64 70 Cuomo 1 1 1 2 O'Malley - 1 1 1 Schweitzer - 1 na na Warren 8 6 5 4 Warner na na 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 11 13 16 10 9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 49% 9% 90% 45% 41% 56% 57% 52% 46% 44% Bush 42 86 5 41 49 36 32 40 44 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 - 5 4 2 2 3 4 1 DK/NA 5 1 5 8 4 6 8 4 5 6 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 24 May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 Jun 19 Mar 21 2014 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 Clinton 49 49 49 47 50 51 Bush 42 41 43 45 43 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 5 5 4 4 4 5 10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 53% 12% 91% 52% 47% 58% 56% 57% 50% 49% Rubio 39 82 4 34 45 33 35 35 41 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 - 4 3 2 5 2 2 2 DK/NA 5 2 4 9 4 6 3 5 5 6 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 24 May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 Jun 19 Mar 21 2014 2014 2014 2013 2013 2013 Clinton 53 52 51 50 53 52 Rubio 39 40 41 43 41 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 1 1 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 4 6 11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 53% 14% 93% 51% 44% 61% 54% 55% 50% 53% Paul 37 77 3 35 46 29 35 35 40 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 - 4 4 2 5 3 3 1 DK/NA 6 4 3 9 4 7 5 6 5 6 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 24 May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2014 2013 Clinton 53 55 53 51 Paul 37 37 38 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 6 5 5 6 12. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 54% 14% 92% 51% 45% 61% 62% 57% 51% 49% Christie 33 73 2 31 41 28 25 32 35 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 4 1 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 6 1 6 6 3 6 3 6 3 DK/NA 6 4 5 10 5 7 7 5 6 7 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Chris Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 24 May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2014 2013 Clinton 54 52 51 45 Christie 33 34 35 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 4 4 DK/NA 6 7 7 8 13. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 51% 11% 91% 50% 44% 58% 53% 53% 49% 51% Ryan 38 82 3 33 44 32 30 35 40 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 5 4 2 4 4 4 1 DK/NA 7 3 4 11 6 8 11 7 6 5 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Paul Ryan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 24 May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 2014 2014 2014 2013 Clinton 51 56 52 50 Ryan 38 36 39 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 DK/NA 7 5 6 4 14. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 58% 21% 95% 57% 49% 66% 65% 62% 55% 54% Unfavorable 38 77 3 36 46 31 31 35 41 42 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 2 6 4 2 4 3 3 2 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 1 - 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (*Low also 44% Jun 2007) FAVORABLE..... High Low Jul 24 May 01 Jun 19 Mar 21 May 22 Mar 21 Apr 02 2014 2014 2013 2013 2008 2013 2008* Favorable 58 58 57 62 48 62 44 Unfavorable 38 37 38 33 43 33 45 Hvn't hrd enough 3 4 4 4 5 4 8 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 4 2 4 15. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 48% 77% 21% 51% 51% 46% 37% 45% 49% 57% Unfavorable 37 14 62 33 35 39 44 36 39 31 Hvn't hrd enough 13 8 14 13 13 13 18 16 11 9 REFUSED 2 1 3 2 2 2 1 3 - 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 24 May 01 Jun 19 Mar 21 2014 2014 2013 2013 Favorable 48 53 54 50 Unfavorable 37 35 33 35 Hvn't hrd enough 13 11 11 13 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 16. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 43% 79% 13% 41% 49% 37% 36% 40% 43% 49% Unfavorable 35 10 57 35 34 36 31 33 38 36 Hvn't hrd enough 21 10 28 23 16 25 33 26 18 13 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2 - 1 1 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 44% May 2012) FAVORABLE..... High Low Jul 24 May 01 Jun 19 Mar 21 May 23 Jun 19 Apr 16 2014 2014 2013 2013 2012 2013* 2009 Favorable 43 43 44 41 44 44 10 Unfavorable 35 36 33 34 24 33 11 Hvn't hrd enough 21 19 22 24 31 22 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 17. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 32% 58% 9% 31% 41% 24% 25% 30% 37% 33% Unfavorable 28 12 41 32 29 27 22 25 28 34 Hvn't hrd enough 39 29 49 36 29 47 53 44 33 32 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 24 May 01 2014 2014 Favorable 32 34 Unfavorable 28 31 Hvn't hrd enough 39 35 REFUSED 1 1 18. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 35% 54% 22% 32% 38% 32% 22% 36% 37% 38% Unfavorable 36 26 44 38 37 35 25 36 41 37 Hvn't hrd enough 28 19 32 28 24 32 51 28 22 23 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 24 May 01 2014 2014 Favorable 35 37 Unfavorable 36 35 Hvn't hrd enough 28 26 REFUSED 2 2 19. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 33% 65% 6% 31% 39% 28% 26% 31% 37% 36% Unfavorable 30 7 50 34 32 29 28 28 32 32 Hvn't hrd enough 36 27 44 34 29 42 47 40 31 31 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 24 May 01 2014 2014 Favorable 33 33 Unfavorable 30 36 Hvn't hrd enough 36 30 REFUSED 1 1 22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 49% 82% 24% 47% 55% 44% 42% 49% 49% 54% Disapprove 37 10 58 38 34 39 35 36 39 35 DK/NA 14 7 18 15 11 17 23 16 12 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Jul 24 May 01 Jan 30 Nov 22 Jun 19 May 23 Feb 03 2014 2014 2014 2013 2013 2012 2011 Approve 49 47 52 48 51 54 42 Disapprove 37 39 37 39 35 27 20 DK/NA 14 14 11 13 14 19 37 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 45% 34% 58% 48% 43% 47% 39% 49% 44% 46% Disapprove 32 47 16 31 39 26 37 24 36 32 DK/NA 23 19 26 21 18 27 24 27 20 22 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004) APPROVE....... High Low Jul 24 May 01 Jan 30 Nov 22 Jun 19 Feb 06 Aug 04 2014 2014 2014 2013 2013 2007 2011* Approve 45 46 48 43 51 54 42 Disapprove 32 32 30 37 29 18 35 DK/NA 23 22 21 21 20 28 23 24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve 44% 7% 84% 40% 38% 49% 46% 47% 46% 36% Disapprove 52 92 13 54 59 46 46 49 51 61 DK/NA 4 1 3 6 3 5 9 4 3 3 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Jul 24 May 01 Jan 31 Nov 22 Jun 19 Feb 19 Sep 22 2014 2014 2014 2013 2013 2009 2011 Approve 44 46 42 40 47 64 39 Disapprove 52 50 53 57 48 23 57 DK/NA 4 4 5 3 5 13 5 Demographic Summary Additional Crosstabs
