October 30, 2014 - Independent Voters Boost Crist In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Like Republican Turned Dem A Little More jangalla.com PDF format A jump in support from independent likely voters in the Florida governor's race leaves Democrat Charlie Crist with 43 percent, inches ahead of Republican incumbent Gov. Rick Scott with 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie has 8 percent, with 9 percent undecided. This compares to results of an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Gov. Scott and Crist tied 42 - 42 percent, with Wyllie at 7 percent. With Wyllie out of the race, Crist gets 45 percent to Scott's 42 percent. Men and women remain divided in the three-way matchup. Scott leads Crist among men 47 - 37 percent, with 9 percent for Wyllie, while Crist leads Scott 49 - 35 percent among women, with 6 percent for Wyllie. Independent voters go to Crist over Scott 47 - 29 percent, with 16 percent for Wyllie. This compares to last week's result, showing Crist taking 41 percent of independent voters, to Scott's 38 percent, with 11 percent for Wyllie. Republicans back Scott over Crist 81 - 8 percent, with 4 percent for Wyllie. Democrats go to Crist over Scott 83 - 7 percent, with 3 percent for Wyllie. Among those who already have voted, Crist gets 40 percent to Scott's 39 percent. "Independent voters are often the difference in swing states like Florida, but the size of former Gov. Charlie Crist's lead among them is truly remarkable," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Crist, who always has sought to portray himself as a pragmatist rather than an ideologue, seems to have sold that message to independents who historically have favored problem-solvers who are less politicaI," Brown added. "It may turn out that Crist's change from Republican to independent to Democrat branded him as the kind of less political politician with the most important voter group. If Crist can win independents by 20 points on Election Day, he will be difficult to beat. "It would be a reasonable hypothesis that the candidates' debates made a big difference in this race. Scott was ahead going into them and behind after them. It could be a coincidence, but it would be a pretty large coincidence. Crist has long been thought of as an excellent campaigner and he used those skills to his advantage. "Wyllie is holding on to his 8 percent and if those voters decide to leave him for a major party candidate they could also make a difference." Just five days before Election Day, 90 percent of voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 10 percent say they might change their mind. Their mind is made up, say 91 percent of Crist voters, 92 percent of Scott supporters and 67 percent of Wyllie backers. Florida likely voters give Crist a split 45 - 45 percent favorability rating, compared to Scott's negative 41 - 46 percent, while 81 percent of likely voters still do not know enough about Wyllie to form an opinion of him. From October 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 817 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Crist 43% 8% 83% 47% 37% 49% 40% Scott 40 81 7 29 47 35 39 Wyllie 8 4 3 16 9 6 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 7 7 7 8 10 17 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 Crist 43 42 42 Scott 40 42 44 Wyllie 8 7 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 DK/NA 9 8 5 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Crist Scott Wyllie Mind made up 90% 91% 92% 67% Might change 10 8 8 32 DK/NA - - - 1 TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 Mind made up 90 90 81 Might change 10 10 17 DK/NA - - 1 2. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING WYLLIE VOTERS: Who is your second choice? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT WYLLIE........................ Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Crist 45% 9% 84% 53% 39% 51% 41% Scott 42 83 8 33 49 37 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 DK/NA 11 7 7 11 11 11 18 TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING WYLLIE VOTERS: Who is your second choice? LIKELY VOTERS......... MATCHUP WITHOUT WYLLIE Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 Crist 45 44 44 Scott 42 44 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 11 11 7 3. Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Favorable 45% 10% 84% 49% 36% 53% 50% Unfavorable 45 79 12 44 53 38 41 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 3 4 7 3 3 REFUSED 5 5 1 3 4 6 6 TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 Favorable 45 42 41 Unfavorable 45 47 49 Hvn't hrd enough 5 6 8 REFUSED 5 5 3 4. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Favorable 41% 74% 14% 36% 45% 38% 40% Unfavorable 46 15 74 56 45 48 50 Hvn't hrd enough 7 4 10 5 6 9 3 REFUSED 5 6 2 2 5 5 8 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 Favorable 41 40 42 Unfavorable 46 48 48 Hvn't hrd enough 7 7 7 REFUSED 5 5 3 5. Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Favorable 10% 8% 8% 15% 11% 10% 10% Unfavorable 5 5 7 3 6 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 81 83 82 80 80 83 79 REFUSED 3 4 2 2 3 4 6 TREND: Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 Favorable 10 8 8 Unfavorable 5 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 81 83 86 REFUSED 3 3 2 Demographic Summary
