November 3, 2014 - Crist 42%, Scott 41% In Florida Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Wyllie's 7% And 9% Undecided Are Keys To Outcome PDF format The Florida governor's race goes down to the wire, with Democrat Charlie Crist at 42 percent of likely voters to Republican incumbent Gov. Rick Scott's 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie has 7 percent, with 9 percent undecided the day before election. This compares to results of an October 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Crist with 43 percent of likely voters to Gov. Scott's 40 percent, with Wyllie at 8 percent. With Wyllie out of the race, Crist gets 44 percent to Scott's 42 percent. Scott leads Crist among men 47 - 34 percent, with 8 percent for Wyllie, while Crist leads Scott 50 - 35 percent among women, with 6 percent for Wyllie. Independent voters go to Crist 39 - 32 percent, with 16 percent for Wyllie. Republicans back Scott 81 - 8 percent, with 4 percent for Wyllie. Democrats go to Crist 84 - 6 percent, with 2 percent for Wyllie. Among those who already have voted, Crist gets 44 percent to Scott's 40 percent. "After an incredibly expensive, extremely nasty campaign, the Florida governor's race is too close to call. The winner will be the candidate best able to get his voters to the polls. Turnout, turnout, turnout," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. One day before Election Day, 95 percent of voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 5 percent say they might change their mind. Florida likely voters give Crist a negative 43 - 50 percent favorability rating, compared to Scott's negative 42 - 49 percent, while 83 percent of likely voters still do not know enough about Wyllie to form an opinion of him. From October 28 - November 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 817 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Crist 42% 8% 84% 39% 34% 50% 44% Scott 41 81 6 32 47 35 40 Wyllie 7 4 2 16 8 6 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 1 1 DK/NA 9 6 8 10 9 9 12 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican, and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Crist, Scott, or Wyllie? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS................. Nov 03 Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 2014 Crist 42 43 42 42 Scott 41 40 42 44 Wyllie 7 8 7 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 9 9 8 5 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Crist Scott Wyllie Mind made up 95% 96% 96% 78% Might change 5 4 3 22 DK/NA 1 - 2 - TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN.............. Nov 03 Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 2014 Mind made up 95 90 90 81 Might change 5 10 10 17 DK/NA 1 - - 1 2. RECALCULATED MATCHUP Q1 ASKING WYLLIE VOTERS: Who is your second choice? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... MATCHUP Q1 WITHOUT WYLLIE........................ Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Crist 44% 10% 85% 41% 35% 52% 45% Scott 42 82 6 34 50 36 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 9 4 2 2 DK/NA 11 7 8 15 12 10 13 TREND: RECALCULATED MATCHUP ASKING WYLLIE VOTERS: Who is your second choice? LIKELY VOTERS................. MATCHUP WITHOUT WYLLIE........ Nov 03 Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 2014 Crist 44 45 44 44 Scott 42 42 44 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 11 11 11 7 3. Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Favorable 43% 11% 82% 38% 37% 48% 46% Unfavorable 50 85 13 51 56 44 47 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 3 6 3 4 3 REFUSED 4 2 2 4 5 3 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................. Nov 03 Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 2014 Favorable 43 45 42 41 Unfavorable 50 45 47 49 Hvn't hrd enough 4 5 6 8 REFUSED 4 5 5 3 4. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Favorable 42% 80% 10% 31% 46% 38% 40% Unfavorable 49 15 85 53 44 54 51 Hvn't hrd enough 5 2 3 11 5 4 3 REFUSED 5 3 2 6 5 4 6 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................. Nov 03 Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 2014 Favorable 42 41 40 42 Unfavorable 49 46 48 48 Hvn't hrd enough 5 7 7 7 REFUSED 5 5 5 3 5. Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Favorable 9% 8% 4% 16% 11% 7% 7% Unfavorable 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 Hvn't hrd enough 83 85 89 76 81 85 86 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Adrian Wyllie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................. Nov 03 Oct 30 Oct 22 Sep 24 2014 2014 2014 2014 Favorable 9 10 8 8 Unfavorable 5 5 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 83 81 83 86 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 Demographic Summary
