August 8, 2007 - Clinton Leads Or Ties In Three Swing States, Gay Support Costs Votes, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds --- FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Giuliani 44; OHIO: Clinton 43 - Giuliani 43; PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 45 - Giuliani 44 Quinnipiac University Polling Logo

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New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has inched ahead of her top Republican foe, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in Florida and Pennsylvania, and ties Giuliani in Ohio, her best showing so far in the three states as many voters re-evaluate their previous negative impression of her, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.

Sen. Clinton has increased her substantial Democratic primary lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to 25 points in Ohio, 16 points in Pennsylvania and 30 points in Florida, the first big state to hold a primary, scheduled for January 29, 2008, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Giuliani is treading water in the Republican primary, holding leads over Arizona Sen. John McCain or former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson of seven points in Florida, 18 points in Ohio and 13 points in Pennsylvania.

Head to head matchups show:
  • Florida - Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 44 percent, flipping a 46 - 44 percent Giuliani lead July 23;
  • Ohio - Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43 percent, compared to a 44 - 42 percent Clinton lead July 12;
  • Pennsylvania - Clinton edges Giuliani 45 - 44 percent, compared to a 45 - 45 percent tie June 27.



"Sen. Clinton is inching ahead. Not only does she lead by a nose in two of the most important swing states in the Electoral College, but she is turning around independent and Republican voters who previously viewed her negatively," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In the last two months the share of voters who view her favorably has increased to about 50 percent - an important milestone - while the numbers who view her unfavorably has dropped. It is not huge movement, but it is consistent across all three states," Brown added.

"Mayor Giuliani's lead remains solid among Republicans. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson's surge in the polls has stalled, perhaps because he has yet to announce. Meanwhile, Arizona Sen. John McCain, whose numbers have been going down in most recent polls, is showing new signs of life in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains largely unknown."

On the eve of the first debate for the Democratic candidates before homosexual rights activists, the poll shows backing from gay rights groups has no effect on most voters. But among the roughly 40 percent who say it might have an impact on their decision, support of a gay rights group, depending on the state, turns off from two to almost four times as many voters as it attracts. On a net basis it makes more independents less likely to vote for such a candidate.

Endorsements from business groups and abortion rights groups also make voters less likely than more likely to back a candidate. The backing of labor groups is a big plus for candidates.

Florida Findings

Looking at other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Florida, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds:
  • Giuliani tops Obama 44 - 41 percent;
  • Obama defeats Thompson 43 - 37 percent;
  • Clinton defeats Thompson 49 - 40 percent.
In a Democratic primary match up, Clinton gets 43 percent, followed by 13 percent for Obama, 11 percent for Gore and 8 percent for John Edwards.

Among Republicans, Giuliani gets 26 percent, with 19 percent for Thompson, 11 percent for McCain, 9 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and 6 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

By a 50 - 42 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. On June 27 it was 47 - 47 percent. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 53 - 26 percent for Giuliani;
  • 34 - 39 percent for McCain;
  • 44 - 26 percent for Obama;
  • 42 - 46 percent for former Vice President Al Gore;
  • 42 - 32 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards;
  • 33 - 17 percent for Thompson;
  • 54 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.
Ohio Results

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Ohio:
  • Giuliani defeats Obama 42 - 39 percent;
  • Clinton bests Thompson 47 - 36 percent;
  • Obama tops Thompson 44 - 32 percent;
Clinton leads in a Democratic primary matchup with 41 percent, followed by 16 percent for Obama, 11 percent for Edwards and 8 percent for Gore.

In a Republican primary race, Giuliani gets 29 percent, with 11 percent each for Thompson and McCain and 8 percent each for Romney and Gingrich.

Ohio voters give Clinton a 49 - 41 percent favorability rating. In June it was 47 - 44 percent. For other contenders, favorability ratings are:
  • 48 - 29 percent for Giuliani;
  • 37 - 50 percent for Gore;
  • 33 - 35 percent for McCain;
  • 44 - 25 percent for Obama;
  • 46 - 29 percent for Edwards;
  • 55 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion.
  • 60 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion. Pennsylvania Results
In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Pennsylvania:
  • Giuliani defeats Obama 45 - 39 percent;
  • Clinton tops Thompson 50 - 38 percent;
  • Obama beats Thompson 44 - 36 percent;
In a Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 35 percent, with 19 percent for Obama, 12 percent for Gore and 10 percent for Edwards.

Giuliani leads Republicans with 29 percent, followed by 16 percent for McCain, 14 percent for Thompson, 9 percent for Gingrich and 3 percent for Romney.

Clinton gets a 51 - 40 percent favorability rating from Pennsylvania voters. On May 31 it was 50 - 44 percent. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 54 - 25 percent for Giuliani;
  • 44 - 42 percent for Gore;
  • 37 - 34 percent for McCain;
  • 47 - 23 percent for Obama;
  • 45 - 29 percent for Edwards;
  • 55 percent haven't heard enough about Thompson to form an opinion;
  • 63 percent haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion.



Special Interest Endorsements

In an effort to see the potential political advantages and liabilities of endorsements from various interest groups, voters were asked whether the backing of abortion rights groups, business groups, Christian conservatives, gay rights groups, gun rights groups and labor groups made them more likely or less likely to support a candidate. For a plurality of voters, these endorsements don't affect their decisions.

In Ohio, 10 percent say the endorsement of a gay rights group would make them more likely to support a candidate while 34 percent say less likely and 54 percent say it would make no difference. In Pennsylvania, 11 percent say it would make them more likely, with 28 percent saying less likely and 59 percent saying it would make no difference. Among Florida voters, 10 percent say more likely, while 28 percent are less likely and 60 percent say it would make no difference.

Conversely, a labor endorsement is the biggest plus, although its support is more useful in Ohio and Pennsylvania than it is in Florida. But a business group endorsement is a negative. The backing of abortion rights groups is also an overall negative in all three states.

The backing of conservative Christian groups is a plus in Ohio, a negative in Florida and a virtual wash in Pennsylvania.

"Being perceived as the candidate of gay rights turns off more voters than it attracts, although in general being considered the candidate of a special interest group seems to be a political loser overall," said Brown.

From July 30 - August 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 962 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent, including 366 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent, and 380 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent;
  • 974 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 344 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent, and 366 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent;
  • 1,011 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 434 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent and 419 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Biden                    2%      3       2%
Clinton                 43      41%     35 
Dodd                     -       -       - 
Edwards                  8      11      10 
Gore                    11       8      12 
Gravel                   -       -       - 
Kucinich                 1       2       1 
Obama                   13      16      19 
Richardson               2       1       2 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          4       3       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       2 
DK/NA                   15      14      15 
 
 
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Brownback                2%      -       1%
Gilmore                  -       -       - 
Gingrich                 6       8       9 
Giuliani                26      29      29 
Huckabee                 2       1       1 
Hunter                   -       1       1 
McCain                  11      11      16 
Paul                     -       1       3 
Romney                   9       8       3 
Tancredo                 -       -       - 
Thompson, F.            19      11      14 
Thompson, T.             1       2       1 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       4 
DK/NA                   18      22      16 
 
 
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..........
                                                Jul 23
                        Tot     Men     Wom     2007  
FL
Biden                    2%      4%      1%      2%
Clinton                 43      35      48      36
Dodd                     -       -       1       1
Edwards                  8      10       7       9
Gore                    11      12      11      14
Gravel                   -       -       -       -
Kucinich                 1       2       1       2
Obama                   13      11      14      14
Richardson               2       3       -       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          4       4       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       2       3
DK/NA                   15      17      13      14
 
 
                                                Jul 12
                        Tot     Men     Wom     2007
OH 
Biden                    3%      6%      1%      1%
Clinton                 41      37      44      35
Dodd                     -       -       -       -
Edwards                 11      15       9      13
Gore                     8       8       7      12
Gravel                   -       1       -       -
Kucinich                 2       1       2       3
Obama                   16      15      16      17
Bill Richardson          1       1       1       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       3       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       2       1       1
DK/NA                   14      11      16      15
 
 
                                                Jun 27
                        Tot     Men     Wom     2007
PA 
Biden                    2%      4%      1%      5%
Clinton                 35      26      41      32
Dodd                     -       -       -       1
Edwards                 10      13       8       7
Gore                    12      15      10      16
Gravel                   -       -       -       -
Kucinich                 1       2       -       1
Obama                   19      19      19      18
Richardson               2       2       2       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       4       -       2
DK/NA                   15      12      16      15
 
 
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS..................
                                                WtBrnAgn  Jul 23
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl   2007
FL 
Brownback                2%      4%      -       5%        -
Gilmore                  -       -       1       -         -
Gingrich                 6      10       2       9         5
Giuliani                26      20      32      17        30
Huckabee                 2       3       -       3         1
Hunter                   -       -       -       -         -
McCain                  11      13       9       9        10
Paul                     -       -       1       -         1
Romney                   9       8      11       8         9
Tancredo                 -       1       -       -         1
Thompson, F.            19      26      10      18        18
Thompson, T.             1       -       1       1         1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       3       2         2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       3       1         2
DK/NA                   18       9      28      26        19
 
 
                                                WtBrnAgn  Jul 12
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl   2007
OH 
Brownback                -       1%      -       -         1%
Gilmore                  -       -       -       -         1
Gingrich                 8      11       6      10         5
Giuliani                29      26      32      27        24
Huckabee                 1       1       -       1         2
Hunter                   1       1       -       -         -
McCain                  11      16       8       8        14
Paul                     1       2       -       2         1
Romney                   8       6      10       8         8
Tancredo                 -       -       -       -         -
Thompson, F.            11      15       7       9        18
Thompson, T.             2       3       -       1         1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       1         3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       6       4         2
DK/NA                   22      14      30      27        20
 
 
                                                WtBrnAgn  Jun 27
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Evnglcl   2007
PA 
Brownback                1%      1%      -       1%        1%
Gilmore                  -       -       -       -         1
Gingrich                 9      11       6       8         5
Giuliani                29      28      32      24        29
Huckabee                 1       -       1       2         1
Hunter                   1       1       -       -         -
McCain                  16      14      19      15        15
Paul                     3       2       4       3         -
Romney                   3       3       3       2         3
Tancredo                 -       1       -       -         -
Thompson, F.            14      20       6      12        15
Thompson, T.             1       1       -       1         1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2       2         3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       5       4         3
DK/NA                   16      13      21      25        24
 
 
3-6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- the Democrat and -- the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
Clinton                 46%     43%    45%
Giuliani                44      43     44 
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Clinton                 46%      9%     87%     38%     41%     50%     26%
Giuliani                44      84       8      45      50      38      63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       -       4       3       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       1       5       3       4       4
DK/NA                    5       3       3       7       4       7       5
 
OH
Clinton                 43%      5%     82%     33%     39%     47%     28%
Giuliani                43      88      11      44      46      40      58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       3       3       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       2       8       4       4       4
DK/NA                    8       4       5      12       7       8       7
 
PA
Clinton                 45%     12%     79%     43%     35%     54%     28%
Giuliani                44      82      15      40      52      36      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       2       4       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       1       6       5       1       2
DK/NA                    6       4       4       6       5       7       9
 
 
                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
Obama                   41%     39%    39%
Giuliani                44      42     45 
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Obama                   41%      9%     76%     36%     36%     44%     19%
Giuliani                44      82       9      47      52      38      65
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2       5       3       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       4       4       4       4       6
DK/NA                    8       4       8       8       5      11       7
 
OH
Obama                   39%      7%     64%     39%     37%     40%     27%
Giuliani                42      82      19      35      44      40      54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       1       4       1       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       2       5       7       5       5       6
DK/NA                   12       8       8      18      11      13      11
 
PA
Obama                   39%      8%     67%     38%     33%     44%     22%
Giuliani                45      82      20      38      52      38      60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       1       3       5       3       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       2       7       4       3       1
DK/NA                   10       7       8      12       7      13      14
 
 
3-6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- the Democrat and -- the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH     PA 
 
Clinton                 49%     47%    50%
Thompson                40      36     38 
                                
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Clinton                 49%     11%     87%     46%     44%     55%     28%
Thompson                40      81       7      37      47      32      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       3       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2       1       4       2       3       3
DK/NA                    7       4       4      10       5       9       8
 
OH
Clinton                 47%      8%     83%     39%     42%     52%     31%
Thompson                36      80       8      36      42      32      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       1       5       4       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       2       7       5       4       5
DK/NA                    9       6       6      13       8      10       6
 
PA
Clinton                 50%     17%     82%     48%     40%     58%     34%
Thompson                38      74      10      35      47      29      51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       2       4       2       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       1       4       3       3       3
DK/NA                    8       6       5       8       7       9      11
 
 
                        FL      OH      PA 
 
Obama                   43%     44%     44%
Thompson                37      32      36 
                                
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Obama                   43%     11%     73%     42%     40%     45%     22%
Thompson                37      75       8      34      42      32      58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       4       4       3       4       4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       2       3       7       6       4       4
DK/NA                   12       9      11      13       9      15      12
 
OH
Obama                   44%     14%     69%     41%     40%     47%     30%
Thompson                32      69      10      28      36      28      45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          4       2       5       4       4       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         6       2       5       8       6       5       6
DK/NA                   15      12      11      19      13      17      17
 
PA
Obama                   44%     18%     69%     47%     40%     48%     29%
Thompson                36      70      13      30      42      29      46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       1       4       3       4       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       3       3       2       4       3
DK/NA                   14       9      12      17      11      17      18
 
 
7-14. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
                        FL      OH     PA 
- Hillary Clinton
Favorable               50%     49%    51%
Unfavorable             42      41     40 
Hvn't hrd enough         5       8      5 
REFUSED                  2       3      3 
 
- John Edwards
Favorable               42%     46%     45%
Unfavorable             32      29      29 
Hvn't hrd enough        24      21      24 
REFUSED                  3       3       2 
                                
- Rudy Giuliani
Favorable               53%     48%    54%    
Unfavorable             26      29     25     
Hvn't hrd enough        19      20     17     
REFUSED                  2       3      3     
 
- Al Gore
Favorable               42%     37%    44%    
Unfavorable             46      50     42     
Hvn't hrd enough         9      10     10     
REFUSED                  3       3      3     
 
- John McCain
Favorable               34%     33%    37%    
Unfavorable             39      35     34     
Hvn't hrd enough        24      28     25     
REFUSED                  3       4      3     
 
- Barack Obama
Favorable               44%     44%    47% 
Unfavorable             26      25     23  
Hvn't hrd enough        27      29     27  
REFUSED                  3       2      2  
 
- Mitt Romney
Favorable               21%     17%    17%
Unfavorable             22      21     19 
Hvn't hrd enough        54      60     63 
REFUSED                  3       3      1 
 
- Fred Thompson
Favorable               33%     27%    28%
Unfavorable             17      15     15 
Hvn't hrd enough        48      55     55 
REFUSED                  3       2      2 
 
 
7-14. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- Hillary Clinton       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Favorable               50%     14%     85%     47%     44%     56%     32%
Unfavorable             42      79       9      45      49      36      63
Hvn't hrd enough         5       6       5       4       5       6       3
REFUSED                  2       1       1       4       2       3       3
 
OH
Favorable               49%     11%     81%     41%     44%     52%     34%
Unfavorable             41      82       8      47      44      38      58
Hvn't hrd enough         8       5       8       8       9       7       5
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       3       2       3
 
PA
Favorable               51%     21%     81%     50%     41%     61%     37%
Unfavorable             40      75      13      37      50      32      55
Hvn't hrd enough         5       4       5       6       6       5       5
REFUSED                  3       1       1       7       3       3       3
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- John Edwards          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Favorable               42%     26%     61%     38%     37%     46%     30%
Unfavorable             32      52      13      33      39      24      40
Hvn't hrd enough        24      20      23      25      21      27      26
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       3       3       4
 
OH
Favorable               46%     26%     63%     46%     46%     47%     43%
Unfavorable             29      54      13      27      35      24      40
Hvn't hrd enough        21      15      21      25      16      25      15
REFUSED                  3       5       3       2       3       4       3
 
PA
Favorable               45%     29%     58%     48%     42%     47%     35%
Unfavorable             29      49      11      30      37      22      40
Hvn't hrd enough        24      21      28      19      18      28      23
REFUSED                  2       2       3       3       3       2       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- Rudy Giuliani         Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL  
Favorable               53%     79%     27%     58%     57%     48%     64%
Unfavorable             26       8      46      26      28      25      15
Hvn't hrd enough        19      11      25      14      12      24      17
REFUSED                  2       2       2       2       2       2       3
 
OH
Favorable               48%     73%     30%     48%     45%     51%     52%
Unfavorable             29      11      45      26      33      26      27
Hvn't hrd enough        20      14      22      23      20      21      18
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       3       3       3
 
PA
Favorable               54%     78%     39%     51%     59%     51%     62%
Unfavorable             25       6      40      28      26      25      15
Hvn't hrd enough        17      14      20      17      12      22      22
REFUSED                  3       2       2       4       3       2       1
 
 
7-14. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- Al Gore               Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Favorable               42%     16%     66%     41%     41%     42%     28%
Unfavorable             46      77      20      48      51      42      62
Hvn't hrd enough         9       5      11       8       7      11       8
REFUSED                  3       1       3       4       1       4       2
 
OH
Favorable               37%     10%     59%     35%     37%     37%     20%
Unfavorable             50      83      24      53      53      48      72
Hvn't hrd enough        10       6      14       9       8      12       6
REFUSED                  3       1       3       3       2       3       1
 
PA
Favorable               44%     21%     68%     43%     40%     48%     33%
Unfavorable             42      72      16      43      48      37      56
Hvn't hrd enough        10       6      13      10       8      12      10
REFUSED                  3       1       2       4       3       3       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- John McCain           Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL  
Favorable               34%     46%     20%     40%     38%     30%     40%
Unfavorable             39      32      50      34      42      36      30
Hvn't hrd enough        24      19      28      24      17      31      27
REFUSED                  3       3       2       2       3       3       3
 
OH
Favorable               33%     50%     20%     36%     36%     30%     37%
Unfavorable             35      28      46      29      38      33      36
Hvn't hrd enough        28      17      31      31      21      34      21
REFUSED                  4       6       3       4       4       4       5
 
PA
Favorable               37%     51%     28%     35%     43%     32%     41%
Unfavorable             34      23      39      40      36      32      27
Hvn't hrd enough        25      21      31      20      17      33      30
REFUSED                  3       4       2       4       4       3       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- Barack Obama          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Favorable               44%     26%     63%     45%     44%     44%     32%
Unfavorable             26      46      11      26      30      22      34
Hvn't hrd enough        27      26      24      25      22      31      29
REFUSED                  3       3       2       4       3       3       6
 
OH
Favorable               44%     31%     56%     44%     41%     47%     30%
Unfavorable             25      44      15      21      29      21      35
Hvn't hrd enough        29      24      28      32      28      29      32
REFUSED                  2       1       1       3       2       2       3
 
PA
Favorable               47%     29%     62%     49%     43%     51%     35%
Unfavorable             23      37      13      21      28      19      28
Hvn't hrd enough        27      32      24      28      27      27      35
REFUSED                  2       2       2       2       2       3       2
7-14. Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- Mitt Romney           Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Favorable               21%     37%      8%     21%     26%     16%     26%
Unfavorable             22      14      31      21      24      19      16
Hvn't hrd enough        54      47      58      54      47      61      55
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       3       3       3
 
OH
Favorable               17%     29%      9%     18%     19%     15%     21%
Unfavorable             21      14      27      16      24      18      20
Hvn't hrd enough        60      54      61      64      54      65      57
REFUSED                  3       4       2       2       3       2       2
 
PA
Favorable               17%     29%      8%     16%     22%     12%     18%
Unfavorable             19      10      24      20      20      17      11
Hvn't hrd enough        63      60      67      62      56      70      70
REFUSED                  1       1       1       2       2       1       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
- Fred Thompson         Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Favorable               33%     55%     13%     35%     43%     23%     45%
Unfavorable             17       5      30      15      16      17       8
Hvn't hrd enough        48      38      55      47      39      56      45
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       2       3       2
 
OH
Favorable               27%     47%     13%     28%     31%     23%     32%
Unfavorable             15       6      22      15      17      14      13
Hvn't hrd enough        55      45      62      56      50      60      53
REFUSED                  2       2       3       1       2       2       2
 
PA
Favorable               28%     46%     14%     30%     35%     22%     28%
Unfavorable             15       5      24      14      17      14       8
Hvn't hrd enough        55      48      61      54      46      63      64
REFUSED                  2       1       1       2       2       1       1
 
 
15. If a presidential candidate is supported by - abortion rights groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
More likely             20%     19%    18%
Less likely             32      31     30 
Doesn't make a diff     46      47     48 
DK/NA                    3       3      4 
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
More likely             20%     13%     27%     21%     18%     22%     13%
Less likely             32      45      24      26      32      31      49
Doesn't make a diff     46      39      46      51      46      45      35
DK/NA                    3       2       3       3       3       3       3
 
OH
More likely             19%     10%     25%     18%     19%     18%     12%
Less likely             31      52      24      27      31      32      51
Doesn't make a diff     47      35      47      52      49      45      32
DK/NA                    3       3       4       3       1       5       5
 
PA
More likely             18%      9%     26%     20%     15%     21%     11%
Less likely             30      45      23      22      29      31      52
Doesn't make a diff     48      44      47      55      52      45      33
DK/NA                    4       2       4       3       4       4       4
 
 
16. If a presidential candidate is supported by - business groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
More likely             15%     15%    12%
Less likely             24      23     26 
Doesn't make a diff     56      56     57 
DK/NA                    5       6      5 
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
More likely             15%     22%     10%     12%     17%     14%     19%
Less likely             24      16      27      28      25      23      21
Doesn't make a diff     56      58      56      56      53      58      55
DK/NA                    5       4       6       4       5       5       5
 
OH
More likely             15%     21%     14%     14%     17%     14%     19%
Less likely             23      13      28      24      26      19      19
Doesn't make a diff     56      58      53      55      52      60      53
DK/NA                    6       7       5       7       5       7       9
 
PA
More likely             12%     20%     10%      8%     13%     12%     12%
Less likely             26      15      27      38      30      22      22
Doesn't make a diff     57      61      57      51      54      59      60
DK/NA                    5       4       6       4       4       6       6
 
 
17. If a presidential candidate is supported by - conservative Christian groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
More likely             24%     29%    25%
Less likely             28      23     26 
Doesn't make a diff     46      45     46 
DK/NA                    2       3      3 
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
More likely             24%     42%     17%     14%     21%     26%     51%
Less likely             28      13      41      30      29      28       7
Doesn't make a diff     46      44      39      55      47      44      39
DK/NA                    2       1       3       2       2       2       3
 
OH
More likely             29%     51%     21%     24%     29%     30%     54%
Less likely             23       9      30      26      25      20       9
Doesn't make a diff     45      37      45      47      43      47      33
DK/NA                    3       3       3       2       3       3       4
 
PA
More likely             25%     40%     19%     18%     24%     27%     56%
Less likely             26      10      35      34      31      22       9
Doesn't make a diff     46      46      44      47      42      49      33
DK/NA                    3       3       2       1       3       2       2
 
 
18. If a presidential candidate is supported by - gay rights groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                        FL      OH     PA 
 
More likely             10%     10%    11%
Less likely             28      34     28 
Doesn't make a diff     60      54     59 
DK/NA                    2       2      2 
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
More likely             10%      3%     18%      9%     10%     10%      5%
Less likely             28      46      21      18      33      23      47
Doesn't make a diff     60      50      58      72      55      65      46
DK/NA                    2       1       2       1       2       2       2
 
OH
More likely             10%      2%     13%     12%      8%     11%      4%
Less likely             34      57      26      28      41      29      58
Doesn't make a diff     54      39      60      57      50      58      35
DK/NA                    2       2       2       3       2       2       2
 
PA
More likely             11%      3%     16%     14%      8%     13%      5%
Less likely             28      45      18      19      32      23      52
Doesn't make a diff     59      51      63      65      57      61      42
DK/NA                    2       1       3       2       3       2       1
 
 
19. If a presidential candidate is supported by - gun rights groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                        FL      OH     PA 
                                          
More likely             20%     24%    27%
Less likely             31      24     29 
Doesn't make a diff     46      49     42 
DK/NA                    4       4      2 
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
More likely             20%     33%      9%     21%     28%     13%     33%
Less likely             31      18      46      27      25      36      18
Doesn't make a diff     46      48      40      51      44      48      46
DK/NA                    4       1       6       1       3       4       4
 
OH
More likely             24%     37%     17%     20%     33%     16%     36%
Less likely             24      10      33      23      17      29      13
Doesn't make a diff     49      50      45      54      48      50      47
DK/NA                    4       3       5       3       2       5       4
 
PA
More likely             27%     43%     19%     21%     35%     20%     38%
Less likely             29      12      39      34      22      35      20
Doesn't make a diff     42      42      39      45      41      43      39
DK/NA                    2       3       2       1       2       2       3
 
 
20. If a presidential candidate is supported by - labor groups, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                        FL      OH     PA 
 
More likely             26%     36%    35%
Less likely             20      15     15 
Doesn't make a diff     51      44     46 
DK/NA                    3       5      4 
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
More likely             26%     14%     40%     25%     25%     28%     19%
Less likely             20      36       8      17      23      16      26
Doesn't make a diff     51      48      49      56      50      52      50
DK/NA                    3       2       3       2       2       4       4
 
OH
More likely             36%     21%     52%     33%     37%     35%     38%
Less likely             15      28       7      13      17      14      19
Doesn't make a diff     44      44      36      51      43      45      34
DK/NA                    5       7       4       3       3       6       8
 
PA
More likely             35%     22%     49%     35%     37%     34%     29%
Less likely             15      29       5      11      18      12      23
Doesn't make a diff     46      43      44      51      41      50      42
DK/NA                    4       6       3       3       4       4       6
 
 
21. Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed legally to marry, should be allowed legally to form civil unions, but not marry, or should not be allowed to obtain legal recognition of their relationships?
                        FL      OH     PA  
 
Marry                   27%     23%    26% 
Civil unions            29      29     32  
No recognition          35      37     33  
DK/NA                    9      11      9  
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Marry                   27%     11%     36%     35%     25%     30%     13%
Civil unions            29      33      24      32      27      31      22
No recognition          35      50      29      25      39      31      59
DK/NA                    9       6      12       8       9       9       6
 
OH
Marry                   23%      9%     31%     27%     20%     25%     10%
Civil unions            29      30      25      31      25      32      24
No recognition          37      54      31      32      43      32      60
DK/NA                   11       8      13      10      12      11       6
 
PA
Marry                   26%     10%     33%     34%     21%     30%      8%
Civil unions            32      35      29      33      31      33      30
No recognition          33      48      25      26      37      29      53
DK/NA                    9       6      13       7      11       8       9
 
 
22. In general, do you personally believe that homosexual behavior is morally acceptable or morally wrong?
                        FL      OH     PA 
 
Acceptable              35%     30%    34%
Wrong                   51      55     53 
DK/NA                   14      15     13 
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
FL
Acceptable              35%     20%     44%     43%     28%     41%     15%
Wrong                   51      69      42      40      58      44      73
DK/NA                   14      11      14      17      13      15      11
 
OH
Acceptable              30%     17%     34%     36%     24%     35%     13%
Wrong                   55      74      49      49      63      49      80
DK/NA                   15       8      17      15      13      16       7
 
PA
Acceptable              34%     16%     44%     43%     31%     36%     13%
Wrong                   53      73      42      44      57      49      77
DK/NA                   13      12      14      13      12      15       9