December 5, 2007 - Clinton Ends '07 In A Good Spot In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds --- FLORIDA: Clinton 53 - Obama 17; Giuliani 30 - Romney 12; OHIO: Clinton 45 - Obama 19; Giuliani 29 - McCain 13; PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 - Obama 15; Giuliani 27 - Huckabee, McCain 13 Quinnipiac University Polling Logo

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Despite Oprah Winfrey's support for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has overwhelming leads, especially among women, in Democratic primaries in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads the Republican pack in each state, but with a lackluster 30-percent support, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is gaining, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

In each state, Clinton is seen as the best candidate in either party to handle the immigration issue. By substantial majorities, almost 4 - 1 in Ohio and Pennsylvania, voters favor immigration reform that emphasizes stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigrants rather than integrating illegal immigrants into American society.

And 20 to 25 percent of voters in each state would vote against a presidential candidate who disagreed with them on immigration policy, even if they agreed on everything else.

"These Democratic primary numbers are a good indication that despite the tight three-way race in Iowa, the fight for the nomination is not very close and that Sen. Clinton's lead remains very large and deep," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The Republican primary race remains as muddled as the Democratic side seems clear in these three big states. Mayor Giuliani carries double-digit leads in all three states, but Republicans overall say they are much more likely to change their minds."

"The vast majority of voters think the primary focus of immigration reform is about stricter enforcement rather than integrating illegal immigrants into American society - although that is slightly less true among Democrats than voters overall," Brown added.

"There are also a significant number of voters who say immigration could be a deal-breaker in their presidential vote."

A look at the primaries shows:
  • Florida: Clinton tops Obama 53 - 17 percent among all Democrats and 56 - 13 percent among women. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gets 7 percent. Giuliani gets 30 percent of Republican votes, with 12 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 11 percent for Huckabee, 10 percent for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and 9 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain.
  • Ohio: Clinton leads Obama 45 - 19 among Democrats and 53 - 15 percent among women, with 13 percent for Edwards. Giuliani leads McCain 29 - 13 percent, with 10 percent for Huckabee and 7 percent each for Thompson and Romney.
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton beats Obama 43 - 15 percent among Democrats, with 47 - 11 percent among women, while Edwards gets 9 percent. Giuliani gets 27 percent of Republicans, with Huckabee and McCain at 13 percent each, and Romney and Thompson at 6 percent each. General election matchups in these swing states show:
  • Florida: Clinton tops Giuliani 48 - 41 percent; Giuliani led 46 - 43 percent October 25;
  • Ohio: Clinton leads Giuliani 45 - 41 percent compared to 44 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Giuliani November 14;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton and Giuliani are tied 44 - 44 percent, compared to a 45 - 43 percent Clinton lead November 8.
"Sen. John McCain and Gov. Mike Huckabee are doing slightly better and Sen. Fred Thompson worse in terms of the GOP primaries," Brown added.

"The matchups between Sen. Clinton and Mayor Giuliani have gone back and forth, and the year closes with Clinton holding a small to medium lead in two of the big three and tied in the third. Sen. McCain also has improved his numbers when matched against Sen. Clinton, which reflects the general sense nationally that those who had predicted his political demise may have been speaking too soon."

Florida Findings

Looking at other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Florida, the Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds:
  • Clinton tops McCain 47 - 40 percent, Thompson 52 - 36 percent, Romney 50 - 36 percent and Huckabee 50 - 35 percent;
  • Giuliani bests Obama 45 - 37 percent and Edwards 43 - 39 percent.
By a 52 - 41 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 48 - 34 percent for Giuliani;
  • 44 - 28 percent for McCain;
  • 43 - 31 percent for Obama;
  • 42 - 35 percent for Edwards;
  • Negative 25 - 28 percent for Thompson;
  • 29 - 27 percent for Romney;
  • 56 percent don't know enough about Huckabee to form an opinion.
Clinton would do the best job handling immigration, 18 percent of Florida voters say, while 10 percent name Giuliani and 7 percent cite Obama. No other candidate scores above 6 percent.

By a 66 - 24 percent margin, Florida voters favor enforcement over integration in immigration reform. And 25 percent of Florida voters say they would vote against a presidential candidate who disagreed on integration policy, even if they agreed on everything else.

"Sen. Clinton is over 50 percent in the Democratic primary, an enviable place to be with less than two months before the voting," Brown said.

Ohio Results

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Ohio:
  • Clinton edges McCain 44 - 42 percent and beats Thompson 47 -38 percent, Romney 47 - 37 percent and Huckabee 45 - 38 percent.
  • Edwards bests Giuliani 45 - 38 percent and Obama tops Giuliani 42 - 38 percent. Clinton gets a split 46 - 45 percent favorability rating. Other favorability ratings are:
  • 43 - 34 percent for Giuliani;
  • 44 - 27 percent for McCain;
  • 44 - 28 percent for Obama;
  • 48 - 29 percent for Edwards;
  • 23 - 22 percent for Thompson;
  • 24 - 23 percent for Romney;
  • 63 percent haven't heard enough about Huckabee to form an opinion.
Clinton would do the best job on immigration, 18 percent of Ohio voters say, with 9 percent each for Giuliani and Obama and 8 percent who name McCain. Ohio voters prefer strict enforcement over integration of illegal immigrants 71 - 20 percent and 22 percent say they would vote against a candidate who disagrees with them only on the immigration issue.

"Ohio is a good example that the immigration issue plays far from the border and how important it could be. Among independents there, 27 percent say that they would not vote for a candidate they generally agreed with if they completely disagreed with the candidate on immigration," Brown said.

Pennsylvania Results

In other possible 2008 presidential matchups in Pennsylvania:
  • Clinton ties McCain 43 - 43 percent and beats Thompson 49 - 37 percent, Romney 49 - 37 percent and Huckabee 48 - 37 percent;
  • Giuliani ties Obama 41 - 41 percent and beats Edwards 44 - 40 percent.
Clinton gets a 49 - 43 percent favorability rating from Pennsylvania voters. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
  • 49 - 33 percent for Giuliani;
  • 45 - 27 percent for McCain;
  • 47 - 23 percent for Obama;
  • 46 - 28 percent for Edwards;
  • 24 - 23 percent for Thompson;
  • 23 - 23 percent for Romney;
  • 63 percent don't know enough about Huckabee to form an opinion.
Clinton is the best candidate on the immigration issue, 16 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, while 12 percent name Giuliani, 7 percent name Obama and 6 percent name McCain.

Pennsylvania voters favor enforcement over integration of illegal immigrants 72 - 19 percent and 20 percent say they will not vote for a candidate who disagrees with them on immigration alone.

"Pennsylvania is still Clinton and Giuliani country. But watch out if Giuliani falters, because Sen. McCain has topped or tied Clinton in four of the last six general election match ups there," said Clay Richards, Assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University polling institute. "Gov. Huckabee has come from nowhere to 13 points to tie McCain, but 13 percent doesn't win a nomination, just puts him on the platform to move up if Rudy falls.

"On immigration, the voters have no clear idea who the best candidate is, but want one who favors stricter enforcement." From November 26 - December 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 1,124 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent, including 440 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent, and 424 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent;
  • 1,178 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent, including 418 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent, and 436 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percent;
  • 1,092 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, including 483 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent and 462 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Biden                    2%      3%      5%
Clinton                 53      45      43 
Dodd                     -       1       1 
Edwards                  7      13       9 
Gravel                   -       -       -
Kucinich                 1       2       3 
Obama                   17      19      15 
Richardson               1       1       2 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       2 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       1       2 
DK/NA                   15      13      18 
 
........................FL      Men     Wom
 
Biden                    2%      1%      3%
Clinton                 53      49      56
Dodd                     -       -       -
Edwards                  7      10       5
Gravel                   -       -       -
Kucinich                 1       1       1
Obama                   17      22      13
Richardson               1       2       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       3       2
DK/NA                   15      10      19
 
........................OH      Men     Wom
 
Biden                    3%      5%      2%
Clinton                 45      34      53
Dodd                     1       1       1
Edwards                 13      16      12
Gravel                   -       -       -
Kucinich                 2       2       2
Obama                   19      25      15
Richardson               1       2       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       3       -
DK/NA                   13      12      14
 
........................PA      Men     Wom
 
Biden                    5%      9%      2%
Clinton                 43      38      47
Dodd                     1       -       1
Edwards                  9       9       9
Gravel                   -       -       -
Kucinich                 3       5       2
Obama                   15      20      11
Richardson               2       3       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       1       3
DK/NA                   18      12      23
 
 
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson for whom would you vote?
                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.........
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Giuliani                30%     29%     27%
Huckabee                11      10      13 
Hunter                   1       1       1 
McCain                   9      13      13 
Paul                     4       4       4 
Romney                  12       7       6 
Tancredo                 1       -       - 
Thompson                10       7       6 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       4       3 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3 
DK/NA                   17      21      23 
 
                                                WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Giuliani                30%     29%     32%     22%
Huckabee                11      11      10      15
Hunter                   1       2       1       3
McCain                   9      10       8      10
Paul                     4       6       2       6
Romney                  12      11      12      10
Tancredo                 1       1       1       1
Thompson                10      12       7      12
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       1
DK/NA                   17      12      23      18
 
........................OH      Men     Wom     WBAEvnglcl
 
Rudy Giuliani           29%     32%     27%     24%
Mike Huckabee           10      13       8      14
Duncan Hunter            1       1       1       -
John McCain             13      12      15      11
Ron Paul                 4       7       1       6
Mitt Romney              7       6       7       7
Tom Tancredo             -       -       -       -
Fred Thompson            7       7       7       6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          4       4       4       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       4       3
DK/NA                   21      16      26      25
 
........................PA      Men     Wom     WBAEvnglcl
 
Giuliani                27%     28%     26%     18%
Huckabee                13      17      10      23
Hunter                   1       -       2       -
McCain                  13      15      11       8
Paul                     4       4       4       5
Romney                   6       7       6       7
Tancredo                 -       -       -       -
Thompson                 6       8       5       5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       1       4       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3       2
DK/NA                   23      16      30      32
 
 
1a. (If express choice Democratic Primary) How likely is it that you could change your mind -- Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
                        REG DEMS EXPRESSING CHOICE Q1
........................FL      Men     Wom
 
Very likely              6%      8%      5%
Smwht likely            38      41      36
Not too likely          17      15      18
Not likely at all       38      35      40
DK/NA                    1       1       -
 
........................OH      Men     Wom
 
Very likely             11%      9%     12%
Smwht likely            34      36      32
Not too likely          21      21      21
Not likely at all       32      30      34
DK/NA                    2       3       1
 
........................PA      Men     Wom
 
Very likely             10%     15%      6%
Smwht likely            40      37      42
Not too likely          21      20      21
Not likely at all       29      28      29
DK/NA                    -       -       1
 
 
2a. (If express choice Republican Primary) How likely is it that you could change your mind -- Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
                        REG REPS EXPRESSING CHOICE Q2..
                                                WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Very likely             10%      9%     11%     10%
Smwht likely            49      45      53      48
Not too likely          20      22      18      17
Not likely at all       20      23      17      24
DK/NA                    2       2       2       1
 
                                                WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Very likely             15%     13%     18%     19%
Smwht likely            57      58      55      55
Not too likely          15      16      15      16
Not likely at all       11      12       9       8
DK/NA                    2       1       3       1
 
                                                WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Very likely             21%     23%     17%     16%
Smwht likely            54      48      61      57
Not too likely          13      16       9      15
Not likely at all       13      13      13      12
DK/NA                    -       -       -       -
 
 
3-14. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were -- the Democrat and -- the Republican,for whom would you vote?
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Clinton                 48%     45%     44%
Giuliani                41      41      44 
 
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Obama                   37%     42%     41%
Giuliani                45      38      41 
 
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Edwards                 39%     45%     40%
Giuliani                43      38      44 
 
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Clinton                 47%     44%     43%
McCain                  40      42      43 
 
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Clinton                 52%     47%     49%
Thompson                36      38      37 
 
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Clinton                 50%     47%     49%
Romney                  36      37      37 
 
                        FL      OH      PA 
                                           
Clinton                 50%     45%     48%
Huckabee                35      38      37 
 
 
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican,for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 48%      8%     87%     43%     43%     52%     30%
Giuliani                41      87       7      38      45      38      58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       4       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       2       6       5       3       4
DK/NA                    5       2       3       9       6       5       5
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 45%      4%     81%     43%     37%     52%     36%
Giuliani                41      86      10      36      47      36      52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       3       1       4       4       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       4       4       6       7       3       3
DK/NA                    7       4       3      10       6       8       6
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 44%      9%     79%     44%     41%     47%     23%
Giuliani                44      81      12      41      47      41      62
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       -       4       3       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3       5       3       3       4
DK/NA                    7       6       6       6       7       8       8
 
 
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   37%     10%     64%     36%     36%     38%     19%
Giuliani                45      81      17      41      47      42      61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       3       4       2       3       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         7       4       8       9       7       7       7
DK/NA                    9       6       9      10       8      10      10
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   42%     11%     74%     37%     39%     45%     29%
Giuliani                38      75      10      35      41      35      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       3       2       4       3       2       5
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       5       6       5       4       4
DK/NA                   13       9       8      18      11      14      13
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Obama                   41%     14%     68%     45%     43%     39%     18%
Giuliani                41      70      18      34      42      40      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       3       2       2       4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       4       6       3       5       5
DK/NA                   12      12       9      12      10      14      18
 
 
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Edwards                 39%      9%     70%     38%     38%     41%     33%
Giuliani                43      82      13      42      47      41      51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       4       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       4       6       6       6       5       2
DK/NA                    9       5       9      10       7      11      13
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Edwards                 45%     12%     75%     44%     41%     49%     35%
Giuliani                38      73      14      33      43      32      48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       1       2       2       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       2       3       7       5       3       4
DK/NA                   11      10       6      14       8      13      11
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Edwards                 40%     15%     68%     39%     41%     40%     26%
Giuliani                44      71      20      42      44      43      56
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2       3       3       2       4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       2       3       4       3       3       2
DK/NA                   10      10       6      12       8      12      12
 
 
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 47%     11%     86%     41%     39%     54%     29%
McCain                  40      80       6      42      46      35      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       3       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3       4       5       2       2
DK/NA                    7       5       4      10       7       7       8
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 44%      7%     81%     39%     38%     51%     33%
McCain                  42      86      11      41      48      37      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       2       3       4       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       3       6       5       3       4
DK/NA                    7       3       4      11       6       9       6
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 43%      7%     79%     42%     36%     49%     21%
McCain                  43      78      12      43      51      37      65
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       -       4       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       4       2       3       3       3       2
DK/NA                    8       8       7       6       7       9      10
 
 
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 52%     11%     90%     51%     47%     57%     32%
Thompson                36      77       4      34      40      32      56
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       3       3       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       4       4       2       3
DK/NA                    7       7       4       7       6       7       7
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 47%      6%     84%     42%     38%     54%     35%
Thompson                38      83       9      33      45      32      53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2       4       3       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       3       3       7       5       3       4
DK/NA                    9       7       2      14       8       9       6
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 49%     13%     86%     50%     46%     52%     27%
Thompson                37      74       6      34      41      34      60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       -       2       1       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       3       4       4       3       2
DK/NA                    8       9       4       9       7       9      10
 
 
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 50%     11%     88%     45%     44%     55%     29%
Romney                  36      77       3      37      41      32      53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       3       2       2       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       3       6       6       3       4
DK/NA                    7       6       5       9       6       8      10
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 47%      6%     84%     44%     40%     53%     35%
Romney                  37      83       8      30      42      32      50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2       3       4       1       3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       4       3       8       6       3       5
DK/NA                    9       5       4      15       8      10       7
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 49%     11%     86%     50%     45%     52%     26%
Romney                  37      73       7      35      43      32      59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       -       2       1       3       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       3       6       5       3       3
DK/NA                    8       9       4       7       6      10      10
 
 
9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 50%     12%     88%     47%     45%     55%     30%
Huckabee                35      73       5      34      40      31      54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       3       2       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       4       2       6       5       3       4
DK/NA                    8       9       4      10       8       9      11
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 45%      7%     81%     41%     39%     52%     33%
Huckabee                38      82       8      34      43      33      51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       1       3       3       4       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         4       5       3       6       6       3       5
DK/NA                   10       6       5      16       9      10       9
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Clinton                 48%     11%     88%     48%     45%     52%     26%
Huckabee                37      73       5      34      42      32      61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       3       -       3       2       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       3       2       5       4       2       1
DK/NA                    9      10       4      10       8      11      10
 
 
10. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               52%     15%     87%     48%     46%     57%     34%
Unfavorable             41      81       8      40      46      36      59
Hvn't hrd enough         5       2       3       9       6       4       5
REFUSED                  3       3       2       3       2       3       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               46%      8%     81%     40%     38%     52%     31%
Unfavorable             45      87      12      45      53      37      60
Hvn't hrd enough         6       4       6       8       6       6       6
REFUSED                  3       1       2       6       2       4       3
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               49%     13%     85%     49%     45%     53%     28%
Unfavorable             43      79      10      41      48      39      65
Hvn't hrd enough         6       6       4       6       6       6       6
REFUSED                  2       2       2       3       1       2       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               48%     77%     29%     43%     51%     46%     53%
Unfavorable             34      13      50      37      35      33      29
Hvn't hrd enough        15       8      18      15      11      18      17
REFUSED                  3       2       3       4       2       4       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               43%     66%     27%     41%     46%     40%     44%
Unfavorable             34      14      47      37      36      31      30
Hvn't hrd enough        21      16      25      19      16      25      23
REFUSED                  3       3       2       3       2       4       3
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               49%     67%     34%     51%     51%     48%     50%
Unfavorable             33      17      49      35      36      31      27
Hvn't hrd enough        14      13      14      12      10      19      20
REFUSED                  3       3       3       3       3       3       3
 
 
12. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               44%     62%     32%     42%     50%     39%     50%
Unfavorable             28      20      33      30      29      28      25
Hvn't hrd enough        24      15      32      22      19      29      23
REFUSED                  4       3       2       6       2       5       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               44%     61%     34%     42%     49%     39%     42%
Unfavorable             27      15      36      27      29      25      26
Hvn't hrd enough        26      22      29      26      19      32      29
REFUSED                  3       2       1       5       2       4       3
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               45%     60%     32%     47%     51%     40%     47%
Unfavorable             27      17      37      25      30      24      20
Hvn't hrd enough        25      21      27      26      17      32      30
REFUSED                  3       2       3       2       2       3       3
 
 
13. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               43%     26%     61%     43%     47%     40%     29%
Unfavorable             31      45      19      28      28      33      43
Hvn't hrd enough        22      25      18      24      23      22      27
REFUSED                  4       4       2       5       2       5       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               44%     24%     64%     40%     42%     45%     31%
Unfavorable             28      49      13      25      31      25      38
Hvn't hrd enough        25      24      21      30      23      27      30
REFUSED                  3       3       1       4       4       2       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               47%     29%     60%     55%     49%     44%     30%
Unfavorable             23      32      19      17      24      22      33
Hvn't hrd enough        27      36      18      23      23      31      33
REFUSED                  3       2       3       5       4       3       4
 
 
14. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               29%     51%     11%     32%     35%     25%     39%
Unfavorable             27      11      37      30      29      26      22
Hvn't hrd enough        41      37      50      35      35      46      38
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       2       3       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               24%     45%     14%     18%     29%     19%     29%
Unfavorable             23      11      33      22      24      21      20
Hvn't hrd enough        51      41      52      57      44      58      48
REFUSED                  3       2       1       4       3       2       3
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               23%     38%     10%     21%     28%     17%     29%
Unfavorable             23      11      35      22      24      21      13
Hvn't hrd enough        53      50      55      55      45      61      56
REFUSED                  1       1       1       2       2       1       2
 
 
15. Is your opinion of -- Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               25%     49%     10%     22%     29%     22%     35%
Unfavorable             28      10      41      33      30      27      20
Hvn't hrd enough        43      38      47      42      39      47      45
REFUSED                  3       4       2       3       3       3       -
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               23%     42%      9%     22%     30%     17%     25%
Unfavorable             22       7      35      22      24      20      18
Hvn't hrd enough        53      49      56      53      45      61      56
REFUSED                  2       2       1       2       2       2       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               24%     40%     11%     20%     26%     21%     29%
Unfavorable             23       8      38      25      27      20       9
Hvn't hrd enough        52      51      50      52      45      58      60
REFUSED                  2       1       1       3       2       1       2
 
 
16. Is your opinion of -- Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               26%     40%     14%     27%     29%     23%     39%
Unfavorable             16       8      22      17      16      15      12
Hvn't hrd enough        56      51      62      52      52      59      48
REFUSED                  3       2       2       4       2       3       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               22%     36%     14%     21%     28%     17%     28%
Unfavorable             13       7      21       9      15      11      11
Hvn't hrd enough        63      55      65      69      56      70      60
REFUSED                  1       1       1       2       1       2       2
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               22%     36%     10%     20%     26%     18%     34%
Unfavorable             14       6      20      13      16      12       6
Hvn't hrd enough        63      56      68      66      57      68      59
REFUSED                  2       2       2       -       1       2       1
 
 
17. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               42%     24%     61%     41%     43%     41%     39%
Unfavorable             35      53      19      34      38      33      40
Hvn't hrd enough        20      20      19      22      16      24      21
REFUSED                  3       3       1       3       3       3       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               48%     26%     69%     47%     47%     50%     40%
Unfavorable             29      53      11      27      34      24      36
Hvn't hrd enough        21      20      18      24      18      24      23
REFUSED                  2       1       1       2       2       2       1
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Favorable               46%     29%     63%     49%     46%     47%     39%
Unfavorable             28      44      12      25      30      25      34
Hvn't hrd enough        23      24      23      22      21      25      25
REFUSED                  3       2       3       4       2       3       2
 
 
18. Regardless of who you're going to vote for, which presidential candidate do you think would do the best job on the issue of illegal immigration as president?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Biden                    1%      -       1%      2%      1%      1%      1%
Clinton                 18       6      36      13      14      21      15
Dodd                     -       -       1       -       -       -       -
Edwards                  2       1       4       1       2       2       3
Giuliani                10      18       2      11      10      10       9
Gravel                   -       -       -       -       -       -       -
Huckabee                 4       7       1       5       4       4       6
Hunter                   1       1       -       1       1       -       2
Kucinich                 1       -       -       1       -       1       -
McCain                   6       9       3       8      10       3       5
Obama                    7       2      13       5       8       6       4
Paul                     2       1       1       3       4       1       3
Richardson               1       -       3       1       2       1       1
Romney                   5       8       1       6       6       3       4
Tancredo                 2       4       -       2       2       1       2
Thompson                 4      10       1       3       5       3       6
SMONE ELSE               1       1       1       1       2       -       2
DK/NA                   35      32      32      37      27      42      37
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Biden                    -%      -       1%      -       -%      -%      -
Clinton                 18       2      33      16      12      23      17
Dodd                     -       -       -       -       -       -       -
Edwards                  4       1       6       4       5       3       2
Giuliani                 9      20       3       6      12       7       9
Gravel                   -       -       -       -       -       -       -
Huckabee                 3       5       1       5       5       2       5
Hunter                   1       1       -       1       1       -       1
Kucinich                 -       -       -       1       -       -       -
McCain                   8      13       2       9      11       5       7
Obama                    9       1      17       7       9       9       4
Paul                     1       2       -       2       2       1       2
Richardson               1       -       3       1       2       1       1
Romney                   2       5       1       2       3       2       3
Tancredo                 1       2       -       1       1       1       1
Thompson                 4      10       1       1       5       3       5
SMONE ELSE               1       -       -       1       1       -       1
DK/NA                   38      37      31      43      32      43      41
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Biden                    2%      -       2%      4%      2%      1%      1%
Clinton                 16       5      35       8      14      18       9
Dodd                     -       -       -       -       -       -       -
Edwards                  2       1       3       3       1       3       2
Giuliani                12      20       6      13      16      10      10
Gravel                   -       -       -       -       -       -       -
Huckabee                 3       8       -       3       5       2       7
Hunter                   1       1       -       1       1       1       1
Kucinich                 1       -       1       -       1       -       -
McCain                   6       9       2       8       8       4       8
Obama                    7       2      13       6       6       7       5
Paul                     1       1       1       1       2       1       1
Richardson               2       -       3       3       3       1       1
Romney                   2       5       1       1       3       2       5
Tancredo                 1       1       -       1       1       1       -
Thompson                 2       5       1       1       3       2       4
SMONE ELSE               1       1       -       1       1       1       1
DK/NA                   41      41      31      46      34      47      44
 
 
19. Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Intg immigrants         24%     15%     34%     23%     22%     26%     13%
Enforcement             66      76      56      67      69      63      78
DK/NA                   10       9      11      10       9      11       8
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Intg immigrants         20%     11%     28%     20%     21%     18%     12%
Enforcement             71      83      64      68      73      70      80
DK/NA                    9       6       8      12       6      12       8
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Intg immigrants         19%      9%     26%     25%     19%     20%     15%
Enforcement             72      82      64      68      73      70      78
DK/NA                    9       9      11       7       8      10       8
 
 
20. If you agreed with a presidential candidate on other issues, but completely disagreed on the issue of illegal immigration, do you think you could still vote for that candidate or not?
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................FL      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Yes                     63%     67%     69%     57%     67%     60%     60%
No                      25      21      21      32      25      24      30
DK/NA                   12      13      11      11       8      15      10
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................OH      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Yes                     66%     65%     73%     62%     64%     67%     63%
No                      22      24      16      27      26      19      26
DK/NA                   12      12      11      10      10      14      11
 
                                                                        WtBrnAgn
........................PA      Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Evnglcl
 
Yes                     67%     66%     73%     66%     72%     63%     63%
No                      20      22      15      22      20      21      24
DK/NA                   12      12      12      12       8      16      12