April 12, 2016 - Black Votes Matter For Clinton In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Trump Sweeps All Groups Against Cruz Or Kasich Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With a 65 - 28 percent lead among black voters, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tops Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 53 - 40 percent among New York State likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Donald Trump has 55 percent of New York likely Republican primary voters, followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 20 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 19 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Today's results show little movement from a March 31 survey showing Clinton over Sanders 54 - 42 percent and Trump with 56 percent, followed by Cruz at 20 percent and Kasich at 19 percent.

In today's survey, 6 percent of Republican likely primary voters are undecided, but 22 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind. Among Democratic likely primary voters, 7 percent are undecided and 18 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

"Black voters matter for Secretary Hillary Clinton in the New York Democratic primary," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Maurice Carroll.

"She leads Sen. Bernie Sanders in many New York demographic groups except the young folks and very liberal voters, but it's a huge lead among black voters that gives her a comfortable double-digit margin."

"Gender counts, too. New York women like the idea of nominating the first woman president.

"At this sort-of-late stage in the primary marathon, voters' minds are pretty well made up. Four out of five supporters of each Democrat say they won't switch," Carroll added.

"So, for aficionados of political geography, we might note that the transplanted New Yorker from Chappaqua beats the Brooklyn guy who made his political career in Vermont.

There are some gaps among New York likely Democratic primary voters as voters 18 to 44 years old back Sanders over Clinton 55 - 36 percent, while older voters back Clinton.

Self-described "very liberal" Democrats back Sanders 55 - 41 percent, while Clinton takes "somewhat liberal" and "moderate to conservative" Democrats.

She leads 55 - 38 percent among women, while men are divided, with 48 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Sanders, shrinking the gender gap which appears in Quinnipiac University surveys in other states.

White voters are divided, with 50 percent for Clinton and 45 percent for Sanders.

Clinton leads 53 - 37 percent in New York City and 55 - 40 percent in the suburbs. Upstate Democrats are divided with 50 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Sanders.

"Remember, there's a Republican primary, too, and Donald Trump is big in his home state," Carroll said.

Among likely Republican primary voters, Trump leads among every group, from Tea Party members to moderate to liberal Republicans, among men and women and voters of every age group and in every region of the state.

White born-again Evangelical Christians are more closely divided, with 41 percent for Trump, 37 percent for Cruz and 16 percent for Kasich.

From April 6 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 550 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points and 860 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cruz, Kasich, or Trump?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cruz                 19%    32%    37%    31%    18%    12%    16%    23%    18%    19%
Kasich               20      8     16      8     20     26     21     18     28     15
Trump                55     58     41     58     57     52     57     53     50     58
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      2      6      2      5     10      7      6      4      8
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    AREA.............
                     18-44  45-64  65+    UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Cruz                 17%    19%    20%    26%    19%     7%
Kasich               18     22     17     22      9     25
Trump                58     55     57     47     63     63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      5      6      6      9      6
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS......................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Kasich        Trump
 
Made up              78%           73%           63%           84%
Might change         22            25            36            16
DK/NA                 -             1             1             -
 
 
2. If the Democratic primary were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Clinton or Sanders?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              53%    41%    56%    58%    48%    55%    52%    53%
Sanders              40     55     42     33     43     38     40     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      4      2      9      9      6      8      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    AREA.............
                     18-44  45-64  65+    UpStat NYC    Sub    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              36%    62%    62%    50%    53%    55%    50%    65%
Sanders              55     33     30     46     37     40     45     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      5      7      4     10      5      5      7
 
 
2A. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS...........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot           Clinton       Sanders
 
Made up              81%           80%           83%
Might change         18            19            16
DK/NA                 1             1             -
 
 

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