August 23, 2012 - Ryan Micro-Bump In Florida, Wisconsin, But Not Ohio, Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll Finds Word format Crosstabs and Trends by State FLORIDA: Obama 49 - Romney 46, compared to Obama 51 - 45 percent August 1 OHIO: Obama 50 - Romney 44, unchanged from August 1 WISCONSIN: Obama 49 - Romney 47, compared to Obama 51 - 45 August 8 Gov. Mitt Romney seems to get a tiny bounce from his choice of U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan as running mate, as President Barack Obama has a 6-point likely voter lead in Ohio and stays on the upside of too-close-to-call races in Florida and Wisconsin, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today. Congressman Ryan does have slightly better net favorability ratings than Vice President Joseph Biden in each state. By narrow margins, more likely voters in Florida and Ohio think Biden is qualified to serve as president, while more Wisconsin voters say Ryan is qualified. Matching Obama against Romney among likely voters in each of these key states shows: Florida: Obama at 49 percent to Romney's 46 percent, compared to Obama's 51 - 45 percent lead August 1; Ohio: Obama edges Romney 50 - 44 percent, unchanged from August 1; Wisconsin: Obama at 49 percent to Romney's 47 percent, compared to Obama's 51 - 45 percent lead August 8. Voters in each state say Obama would do a better job on Medicare and reject by wide margins a voucher-type Medicare system: 62 - 28 percent in Florida, 64 - 27 percent in Ohio and 59 - 32 percent in Wisconsin, the survey by Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times finds. "Gov. Mitt Romney's pick of U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate has made some small difference in Florida and Wisconsin, at least at this point, when voters in these three key states are asked about their presidential vote," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Voters, however, see Ryan in a more favorable light than they do Vice President Joseph Biden. And when voters assess the two running mates' qualifications to become president, Biden is only slightly ahead in Florida and Ohio and slightly behind the seven-term congressman in Wisconsin. In fact, Ryan's qualified/unqualified ratio is better than Biden's. "Solid majorities in each state agree with Romney that government - presumably the Obama administration - is doing too many things that should be left to the private sector," said Brown. "Wisconsin voters say Romney is better handling the economy while Ohio and Florida voter see little difference. Obama is the clear favorite in handling health care and Medicare. "By more than 4-1 margins, voters in each state say the health care program for the elderly is worth the cost and six in 10 say they favor keeping the current Medicare model. But 10 percent of voters in each state would support 'major reductions' in Medicare to reduce the deficit and almost 50 percent would support 'minor reductions.'" Florida Florida likely voters 50 to 64 years old go 50 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney. Voters over 65 back Romney 55 - 42 percent. The gender gap remains wide as women back Obama 53 - 41 percent while men back Romney 51 - 45 percent. Independent voters back the Republican by a narrow 48 - 44 percent. Florida voters give Obama a 50 - 45 percent favorability rating, compared to Romney's 45 - 42 percent score. Ryan gets a 35 - 29 percent favorability, while Biden has a negative 37 - 44 percent score. Biden is qualified to be president, voters say 41 - 36 percent, compared to 37 - 23 percent for Ryan, with 39 percent who don't know enough about him. The economy will be "extremely important" in their presidential vote, 60 percent of Florida voters say, more than any other issue. Medicare will be "extremely important" to 50 percent of voters, including 60 percent of voters over 65. Romney will do a better job on the economy, 48 percent of voters say, while 45 percent pick Obama. The president will do a better job on Medicare, voters say 50 - 42 percent. Florida's efforts to remove people from the voter rolls will prevent ineligible people from voting, 65 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say it will suppress voting. In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, his Republican challenger, 50 - 41 percent. Independent voters split with 45 percent for Nelson and 43 percent for Mack. Voters disapprove 47 - 41 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing. "Florida voters disagree with the claim that the state's efforts to look for those who are not American citizens and on voter rolls is aimed at suppressing minority turnout on Election Day," Brown said. "By more than 2-1 they see the effort as one aimed at stopping those who are ineligible to vote from casting a ballot." Ohio Obama leads 50 - 44 percent among Ohio likely voters 50 - 64 years old while Romney leads 52 - 44 percent among voters over 65. Women back Obama 54 - 41 percent while men are divided with 48 percent for Romney and 46 percent for the president. Independent voters tip to Romney 48 - 43 percent. Obama gets a 51 - 45 percent favorability rating from Ohio voters, while Romney gets a negative 39 - 45 percent score. Ryan gets a 32 - 27 percent favorability, while Biden has a split 40 - 40 percent score. Biden is qualified to be president, voters say 43 - 34 percent. Ryan is qualified, voters say 32 - 22 percent, with 45 percent who don't know enough about him. The economy will be "extremely important" in their presidential vote, 59 percent of Ohio voters say, more than any other issue. Medicare will be "extremely important" to 45 percent of voters, including 57 percent of voters over 65. Ohio voters split 47 - 47 percent on whether Obama or Romney will do a better job on the economy. The president will do a better job on Medicare, voters say 51 - 41 percent. Ohio voters support 75 - 23 percent efforts in some states to require voters to show photo identification cards, seeing these measures as a way to prevent ineligible people from voting rather than a measure to suppress voter turnout. In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandell, his Republican challenger, 48 - 41 percent. Independent voters split with 43 percent for the Republican and 42 percent for the Democrat. Voters approve 45 - 40 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing. "Ohio voters see no difference between Obama or Romney on handling the economy. On every other issue but one, reducing the budget deficit, voters give the president the edge," Brown said. "Be it the taxes, foreign policy or Medicare and health care, they see Obama as preferable." Wisconsin Wisconsin likely voters 50 - 64 years old give Obama a 50 - 46 percent edge while voters over 65 are divided with 49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Women back the president 52 - 43 percent while men back Romney 51 - 46 percent. Independent voters back the Republican 48 - 43 percent. Obama gets a 51 - 45 percent favorability rating from Wisconsin voters, compared to Romney's split 44 - 43 percent score. Native son Ryan gets a 44 - 35 percent favorability, while Biden has a negative 35 - 42 percent score. Biden is qualified to be president, voters say 41 - 33 percent. Ryan is qualified, voters say 44 - 29 percent. Wisconsin voters approve 52 - 33 percent of the job Ryan is doing as a member of Congress. The economy will be "extremely important" in their presidential vote, 54 percent of Wisconsin voters say, more than any other issue. Medicare will be "extremely important" to 42 percent of voters, including 57 percent of voters over 65. Romney will do a better job on the economy, 49 percent of voters say, while 43 percent pick Obama. The president will do a better job on Medicare, voters say 51 - 42 percent. Wisconsin voters support 66 - 32 percent efforts in some states to require voters to show photo identification cards, seeing these measures as a way to prevent ineligible people from voting rather than a measure to suppress voter turnout. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican former Gov. Tommy Thompson leads Democratic U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin by a narrow 50 - 44 percent, including 54 - 39 percent among independent voters. Voters approve 53 - 43 percent of the job Gov. Scott Walker is doing. "Gov. Tommy Thompson has a big name-recognition advantage over U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin, and after a bruising GOP primary he begins the campaign 6 points ahead," Brown said. From August 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with CBS News and The New York Times, surveyed: 1,241 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,253 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,190 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends click: Crosstabs and Trends by State or visit - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml or call (203) 582-5201 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Obama 49% 50% 49% Romney 46 44 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 DK/NA 5 4 3 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS...... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 FL OH WI Mind made up 89% 88% 90% Might change 9 11 9 DK/NA 1 1 1 1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS.... OBAMA Q1......... FL OH WI Mind made up 89% 89% 89% Might change 10 11 10 DK/NA 1 1 1 1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS.... ROMNEY Q1........ FL OH WI Mind made up 90% 88% 91% Might change 9 12 8 DK/NA 1 1 1 2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Favorable 45% 39% 44% Unfavorable 42 45 43 Hvn't hrd enough 11 12 11 REFUSED 2 3 2 3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Favorable 50% 51% 51% Unfavorable 45 45 45 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 2 REFUSED 2 3 2 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson(FL)/Sherrod Brown(OH)/Tammy Baldwin(WI) the Democrat and Connie Mack(FL)/Josh Mandel(OH)/Tommy Thompson(WI) the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson(FL)/Brown(OH)/Baldwin(WI) or Mack(FL)/Mandel(OH)/Thompson(WI)? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Democrat 50% 48% 44% Republican 41 41 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 DK/NA 9 10 4 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott(FL)/John Kasich(OH)/Scott Walker(WI) is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Approve 41% 45% 53% Disapprove 47 40 43 DK/NA 13 16 4 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Approve 47% 49% 46% Disapprove 48 48 49 DK/NA 5 2 4 7. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI More 42% 33% 36% Less 16 22 14 About the same 42 44 50 DK/NA - 1 - 8. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Favorable 37% 40% 35% Unfavorable 44 40 42 Hvn't hrd enough 18 19 22 REFUSED 2 1 2 9. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Favorable 35% 32% 44% Unfavorable 29 27 35 Hvn't hrd enough 36 40 20 REFUSED 1 1 1 10. Does Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Obama for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI More likely 14% 10% 10% Less likely 16 11 15 No difference 69 78 74 DK/NA 1 1 1 11. Does Mitt Romney's choice of Paul Ryan for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Romney for President, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI More likely 20% 21% 31% Less likely 19 20 22 No difference 58 56 45 DK/NA 2 2 2 12. Do you think - Joe Biden is or is not qualified to serve as President if it becomes necessary, or don't you know enough about Joe Biden to say? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Qualified 41% 43% 41% Not qualified 36 34 33 Don't know enough 21 22 24 DK/NA 2 1 2 13. Do you think - Paul Ryan is or is not qualified to serve as President if it becomes necessary, or don't you know enough about Paul Ryan to say? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Qualified 37% 32% 44% Not qualified 23 22 29 Don't know enough 39 45 26 DK/NA 1 1 1 13a. (Asked in Wisconsin only) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Paul Ryan is handling his job as a U.S. Congressman from Wisconsin? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Approve - - 52% Disapprove - - 33 DK/NA - - 15 14. Will - health care be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Extremely important 56% 52% 50% Very important 33 35 36 Somewhat important 8 11 11 Not important 2 2 2 DK/NA - - 1 15. Will - taxes be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Extremely important 39% 34% 33% Very important 42 43 36 Somewhat important 16 19 25 Not important 3 4 6 DK/NA - 1 1 16. Will - the economy be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Extremely important 60% 59% 54% Very important 31 31 36 Somewhat important 7 8 8 Not important 2 1 2 DK/NA - - - 17. Will - the budget deficit be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Extremely important 47% 41% 43% Very important 30 34 30 Somewhat important 17 20 20 Not important 5 4 6 DK/NA 1 - 1 18. Will - foreign policy be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Extremely important 31% 25% 24% Very important 40 39 37 Somewhat important 24 29 32 Not important 5 5 6 DK/NA 1 1 1 19. Will - the housing market and foreclosures be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Extremely important 22% 16% 17% Very important 33 34 28 Somewhat important 32 37 41 Not important 12 12 13 DK/NA 1 - 1 20. Will - Medicare, which is the government program which pays for health care for seniors be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Extremely important 50% 45% 42% Very important 31 37 35 Somewhat important 16 16 20 Not important 3 2 3 DK/NA - - - 21. Would you say that - Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Yes 57% 59% 58% No 40 39 40 DK/NA 3 3 3 22. Would you say that - Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Yes 44% 41% 44% No 48 53 48 DK/NA 8 6 8 23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS............................................. HEALTH CARE EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q14 FL OH WI FL OH WI Obama 51% 51% 50% 53% 53% 52% Romney 43 43 44 41 43 45 DK/NA 6 6 6 6 4 3 24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... TAXES EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q15 FL OH WI FL OH WI Obama 48% 51% 46% 47% 44% 35% Romney 44 41 47 49 51 57 DK/NA 8 8 8 4 6 7 25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS......................................... ECONOMY EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q16 FL OH WI FL OH WI Obama 45% 47% 43% 35% 38% 35% Romney 48 47 49 59 56 59 DK/NA 7 6 8 6 6 6 26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the budget deficit, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS......................................... DEFICIT EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q17 FL OH WI FL OH WI Obama 37% 40% 37% 24% 24% 21% Romney 53 50 54 72 70 74 DK/NA 9 9 9 5 6 5 27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - foreign policy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS............................................. FOREIGN POL EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q18 FL OH WI FL OH WI Obama 50% 50% 49% 44% 41% 52% Romney 42 40 41 51 51 43 DK/NA 8 10 10 5 8 6 28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the housing market and foreclosures, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS............................................. HOUSING MKT EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q19 FL OH WI FL OH WI Obama 42% 46% 42% 52% 44% 39% Romney 45 42 44 42 49 51 DK/NA 13 12 14 7 7 10 29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - Medicare, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... MEDICARE EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q20 FL OH WI FL OH WI Obama 50% 51% 51% 57% 57% 62% Romney 42 41 42 37 37 33 DK/NA 8 7 7 6 6 5 30. Which comes closer to your view, Government should do more to solve national problems or government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Should do more 37% 39% 37% Doing too much 56 54 56 DK/NA 7 7 8 31. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Support 60% 65% 65% Oppose 34 31 30 DK/NA 5 4 5 32. From what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the health care law that was enacted in 2010? IF APPROVE, ASK: Do you strongly approve or somewhat approve? IF DISAPPROVE, ASK: Do you somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Strongly approve 26% 25% 27% Somewhat approve 16 19 17 Somewhat disapprove 8 8 9 Strongly disapprove 40 38 37 DK/NA 10 10 9 33. From what you've heard or read, do you think the 2010 health care law will mostly help you personally, will mostly hurt you personally, or don't you think it will have much of an effect on you personally? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Help 22% 21% 22% Hurt 35 37 35 No effect 37 36 39 DK/NA 6 5 5 34. Overall, do you think the benefits from Medicare are worth the cost of the program for taxpayers, or are they not worth the cost? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Worth the cost 76% 75% 74% Not worth the cost 15 16 17 DK/NA 9 10 9 35. Which of these two descriptions comes closer to your view of what Medicare should look like for people who are now under 55 who would be eligible for Medicare coverage in about 10 years? Medicare should continue as it is today, with the government providing seniors with health insurance, or Medicare should be changed to a system in which the government would provide seniors with a fixed amount of money toward purchasing private health insurance or Medicare insurance? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Continue/Provide ins 62% 64% 59% Change/Money toward insurance 28 27 32 DK/NA 10 9 9 36. To reduce the federal budget deficit, would you support major reductions, minor reductions, or no reductions to spending on Medicare? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Major reductions 11% 10% 11% Minor reductions 48 48 47 No reductions 35 36 34 DK/NA 6 6 7 37. Do you think changes in your state's voting and registration rules might make it harder for you to vote this year, easier for you to vote this year, or don't you think changes in your state's voting and registration rules will make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Harder to vote 11% 12% 11% Easier to vote 7 5 4 No diff 77 78 82 DK/NA 5 5 3 38. As you may know, there have been efforts in some states to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote. Some people say this is needed to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to vote. Other people say such efforts are designed to suppress voting by low-income people and minorities. What do you think, do you support or oppose efforts to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote? LIKELY VOTERS.... FL OH WI Support 78% 75% 66% Oppose 20 23 32 DK/NA 2 2 2 38a. (Asked in Florida only) As you may know, there has been an effort by the state of Florida to remove people from the state's voter rolls who may not be U.S. citizens and, therefore, are not eligible to vote. Which comes closer to your view about this effort? This is being done mostly to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to do so, or This is being done mostly to suppress voting by certain demographic groups who are eligible to vote? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH WI Prevent ineligible 65% - - Suppress voting 28 - - DK/NA 7 - - Additional info by state: Florida: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary Ohio: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary Wisconsin: Crosstabs/Trends Demographic Summary
