September 26, 2012 - Obama Has Big Leads In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll Finds Word format Crosstabs by State Watch Video: Assistant Director Tim Malloy discusses poll results Clip Information and Download: FLV File - For Website (1920x1080 / 61.7MB) Original .MP4 File - For Broadcast (1920x1080 / 75.2MB) --- FLORIDA: Obama 53 - Romney 44 OHIO: Obama 53 - Romney 43 PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54 - Romney 42 President Barack Obama is over the magic 50 percent mark and tops Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters by 9 to 12 percentage points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today. Voters in each state see President Obama as better than Gov. Romney to handle the economy, health care, Medicare, national security, an international crisis and immigration. Romney ties or inches ahead of the president on handling the budget deficit. Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them - shows: Florida: Obama leads Romney 53 - 44 percent, compared to 49 - 46 percent August 23; Ohio: Obama over Romney 53 - 43 percent, compared to 50 - 44 percent August 23; Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 54 - 42 percent, unchanged from 53 - 42 percent August 1. Likely voters say Obama can better handle the economy, the top issue listed by voters, 51 - 46 percent in Florida, 51 - 45 percent in Ohio and 51 - 45 percent in Pennsylvania. "Gov. Mitt Romney had a bad week in the media and it shows in these key swing states," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The furor over his 47 percent remark almost certainly is a major factor in the roughly double-digit leads President Barack Obama has in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The debates may be Romney's best chance to reverse the trend in his favor." "The wide difference between the two candidates is not just a result of Romney's bad week. In Ohio and Florida votes are basically split down the middle on whether the county and they and their families are worse or better off than they were four years ago. If voters don't think they are worse off, it is difficult to see them throwing out an incumbent whose personal ratings with voters remains quite high," Brown added. "The president's strength results from the fact that for the first time in the entire campaign, he is seen as better able to fix the economy than is Romney, the issue that has been the Republican's calling card since the general election campaign began. And the economy remains the overwhelming choice as the most important issue to voters' presidential choice." Florida Women likely voters back Obama 58 - 39 percent while men are divided with 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Hispanic voters go Democratic 55 - 41 percent while independent voters are split with 49 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama. The economy is the most important issue for 47 percent of Florida voters, while 20 percent list health care; 10 percent list the budget deficit and 8 percent list national security. The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 - 41 percent and do a better job on Medicare, voters say 55 - 40 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 52 - 42 percent and back the president 53 - 45 percent. Voters tip to Romney 48 - 46 percent on who would do a better job on the budget deficit. A total of 53 percent of Florida voters are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" in Obama's ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 46 percent for Romney. Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 57 - 40 percent, while Romney doesn't care, voters say 55 - 41 percent. In Florida's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the Republican challenger, 53 - 39 percent. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets a 47 - 27 percent favorability while former Gov. Charlie Crist gets a split 40 - 40 percent favorability. Florida voters disapprove 48 - 38 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing. "If Gov. Charlie Crist is contemplating a political comeback, he is neither in great or terrible shape. Overall voters are split on whether they view him favorably or unfavorably," Brown said. "If Crist is planning a run as a Democrat, he would enter a primary with almost four times as many party members seeing him favorably as unfavorably," said Brown. Ohio Obama leads 60 - 35 percent among Ohio women likely voters, while men support Romney 52 - 44 percent. White voters back Romney by a narrow 49 - 46 percent, while 98 percent of black voters back the president. Independent voters are split with 47 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama. The economy is the most important issue for 49 percent of Ohio voters, while 21 percent list health care; 12 percent list the budget deficit and 5 percent list national security. The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 - 40 percent and do a better job on Medicare, voters say 55 - 39 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 54 - 41 percent and back the president 52 - 44 percent. Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 49 - 45. A total of 55 percent of Ohio voters are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" in Obama's ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 46 percent for Romney. Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 59 - 38 percent, while Romney doesn't care, voters say 57 - 38 percent. If reelected, Obama policies would treat everyone the same, 31 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say he would favor the middle class; 25 percent say he would favor the poor and 8 percent say he would favor the rich. Romney policies would favor the rich, 58 percent of voters say; 29 percent say he would treat all the same, while 9 percent say he would favor the middle class and 1 percent say he would favor the poor. In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger, 50 - 40 percent. Ohio voters approve 48 - 35 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing. "Mitt Romney may not be doing well in Ohio, but his fellow Republican, Gov. John Kasich, seems to have resurrected his political standing in the Buckeye State," said Brown. "Kasich finds himself with a mid-teens double digit positive approval margin." Pennsylvania Pennsylvania women likely voters back Obama 58 - 37 percent, while men split with 49 percent for Romney and 48 percent for the president. Independent voters are split 48 - 48 percent. The economy is the most important issue for 48 percent of Pennsylvania voters, while 20 percent list health care; 11 percent list the budget deficit and 7 percent list national security. The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 - 41 percent and do a better job on Medicare, voters say 55 - 39 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 52 - 43 percent and back the president 50 - 46 percent. Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 48 - 45. A total of 57 percent of Pennsylvania voters are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" in Obama's ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 44 percent for Romney. Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 60 - 37 percent, while Romney doesn't care, voters say 57 - 38 percent. If reelected, Obama policies would treat everyone the same, 29 percent of voters say, while 30 percent say he would favor the middle class; 26 percent say he would favor the poor and 9 percent say he would favor the rich. Romney policies would favor the rich, 59 percent of voters say; 29 percent say he would treat all the same, while 9 percent say he would favor the middle class and less than 1 percent say he would favor the poor. In Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Robert Casey Jr. leads businessman Tom Smith, the Republican challenger, 49 - 43 percent. Pennsylvania voters disapprove 47 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Tom Corbett is doing. "While judges and politicians debate Pennsylvania's voter ID measure, voters are solidly in support of the measure, 62 - 35 percent," Brown said. And 99 percent of voters say they believe they have the necessary documents to cast a ballot." From September 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with CBS News and The New York Times, surveyed: 1,196 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,162 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent; 1,180 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. For individual statewide crosstabs and trends visit - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml or call (203) 582-5201. For individual statewide crosstabs call (203) 582-5201 or click: Crosstabs by State 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 53% 53% 54% Romney 44 43 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 3 3 2 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS...... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 FL OH PA Mind made up 92% 92% 92% Might change 7 7 7 DK/NA 1 1 1 1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS... OBAMA Q1........ FL OH PA Mind made up 91% 91% 91% Might change 8 8 8 DK/NA 1 - 1 1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS... ROMNEY Q1....... FL OH PA Mind made up 92% 92% 92% Might change 7 6 7 DK/NA 1 2 1 2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favorable 41% 41% 41% Unfavorable 48 49 50 Hvn't hrd enough 9 8 8 REFUSED 2 2 2 3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favorable 54% 54% 54% Unfavorable 42 43 43 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 REFUSED 2 2 2 4. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... OBAMA Q1........ FL OH PA Strongly favor 73% 66% 66% Like/Reservations 20 25 25 Dislike Romney 6 8 7 DK/NA 1 1 2 5. (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama? LIKELY VOTERS... ROMNEY Q1....... FL OH PA Strongly favor 57% 51% 52% Like/Reservations 22 30 28 Dislike Obama 20 18 19 DK/NA 1 1 1 6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson(FL)/Sherrod Brown(OH)/Bob Casey Jr.(PA) the Democrat and Connie Mack(FL)/Josh Mandel(OH)/Tom Smith(PA) the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson(FL)/Brown(OH)/Casey Jr.(PA) or Mack(FL)/Mandel(OH)/Smith(PA)? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Democrat 53% 50% 49% Republican 39 40 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 8 9 8 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott(FL)/John Kasich(OH)/Tom Corbett(PA) is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Approve 38% 48% 36% Disapprove 48 35 47 DK/NA 14 18 17 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Approve 50% 50% 51% Disapprove 47 47 45 DK/NA 3 3 3 9. (FL & OH) Do you think you'll vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot or will you vote at an early voting location? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Election day 58% 67% 94% Mail/Absentee 18 23 5 Early voting locatn 21 8 na DK/NA 3 2 1 10. Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favorable 49% 48% 50% Unfavorable 43 40 40 Hvn't hrd enough 5 7 6 REFUSED 3 4 4 11. Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favorable 38% 37% 37% Unfavorable 50 49 51 Hvn't hrd enough 8 9 8 REFUSED 4 4 3 12. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favorable 43% 38% 45% Unfavorable 41 40 40 Hvn't hrd enough 15 21 14 REFUSED 1 1 1 13. Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favorable 36% 34% 33% Unfavorable 36 33 36 Hvn't hrd enough 26 32 31 REFUSED 1 - 1 14. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favorable 68% 66% 67% Unfavorable 28 30 27 Hvn't hrd enough 2 3 2 REFUSED 2 2 3 14a. (FL) Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS FL OH PA Favorable 40% - - Unfavorable 40 - - Hvn't hrd enough 17 - - REFUSED 2 - - 14b. (FL) Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS FL OH PA Favorable 47% - - Unfavorable 27 - - Hvn't hrd enough 25 - - REFUSED 1 - - 15. In general which comes closest to your feelings about the Obama presidency so far? Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat disappointed or very disappointed? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Very satisfied 20% 16% 15% Somewhat satisfied 29 33 34 Somewht disappointed 13 17 16 Very disappointed 37 34 34 DK/NA 1 1 1 16. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you, national security, the economy, health care, the budget deficit, taxes, immigration, or something else? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA National security 8% 5% 7% The economy 47 49 48 Health care 20 21 20 The budget deficit 10 12 11 Taxes 4 4 4 Immigration 2 - 1 Something else 7 6 7 DK/NA 2 2 2 17. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA More 47% 35% 32% Less 14 17 18 About the same 39 48 50 DK/NA - 1 - 18. Would you say that - Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Yes 57% 59% 60% No 40 38 37 DK/NA 3 3 3 19. Would you say that - Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Yes 41% 38% 38% No 55 57 57 DK/NA 4 5 5 20. How confident are you in - Barack Obama's ability to be an effective Commander-in-Chief of the nation's military; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Very confident 37% 35% 36% Somewhat confident 18 23 24 Not too confident 13 14 12 Not at all confident 31 27 27 DK/NA 1 1 - 21. How confident are you in - Mitt Romney's ability to be an effective Commander-in-Chief of the nation's military; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Very confident 23% 20% 19% Somewhat confident 26 32 31 Not too confident 18 17 21 Not at all confident 31 28 27 DK/NA 2 3 2 22. How confident are you in - Barack Obama's ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Very confident 30% 27% 27% Somewhat confident 23 28 30 Not too confident 10 13 12 Not at all confident 36 31 31 DK/NA 1 - - 23. How confident are you in - Mitt Romney's ability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East; are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Very confident 20% 17% 18% Somewhat confident 26 29 26 Not too confident 18 19 23 Not at all confident 33 33 31 DK/NA 2 2 2 24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 51% 51% 51% Romney 46 45 45 DK/NA 4 3 4 25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 54% 54% 54% Romney 41 40 41 DK/NA 5 5 4 26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - national security, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 52% 53% 55% Romney 44 41 40 DK/NA 5 6 5 27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - Medicare, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 55% 55% 55% Romney 40 39 39 DK/NA 5 5 6 28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 52% 53% 53% Romney 43 43 42 DK/NA 5 4 5 29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - women's reproductive health issues, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 60% 59% 58% Romney 32 30 32 DK/NA 9 11 9 30. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling an international crisis, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 53% 54% 56% Romney 42 39 39 DK/NA 5 7 5 31. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - foreign policy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 52% 54% 56% Romney 42 41 40 DK/NA 5 6 4 32. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the budget deficit, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 46% 45% 45% Romney 48 49 48 DK/NA 6 6 7 33. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - immigration, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Obama 51% 48% 51% Romney 42 43 41 DK/NA 7 9 8 34. Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies, A) They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, or B) They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, or C) They are not improving the economy and probably never will. LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA A)Improving now 34% 33% 27% B)Will improve 22 25 30 C)Will never improve 43 41 42 ECONOMY WORSE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 1 1 1 35. If Barack Obama is re-elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favor the rich 7% 8% 9% Favor middle class 26 28 30 Favor the poor 29 25 26 Treat all the same 31 31 29 DK/NA 7 7 6 36. If Mitt Romney is elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Favor the rich 56% 58% 59% Favor middle class 8 9 9 Favor the poor - 1 - Treat all the same 31 29 29 DK/NA 4 2 3 37. Compared with four years ago, is the United States better off today, worse off today, or about the same? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Better off 40% 39% 35% Worse off 43 39 41 About the same 16 22 24 DK/NA 1 1 1 38. Compared with four years ago, are you and your family better off today, worse off today, or about the same? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Better off 28% 29% 23% Worse off 32 29 30 About the same 40 41 46 DK/NA 1 - - 39. Which of these comes closer to your opinion, The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes self-reliance and individual responsibility, or The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes community and shared responsibility. LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Self-reliance 45% 47% 47% Community 47 44 45 BOTH (VOL) 2 2 3 DK/NA 6 6 5 40. In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas in offshore waters? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Support 62% 68% 65% Oppose 32 26 27 DK/NA 6 6 7 41. In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas on federally owned land? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Support 70% 69% 69% Oppose 23 24 25 DK/NA 7 7 7 42. Which comes closer to your view, Government should do more to solve national problems or government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Should do more 42% 40% 42% Doing too much 49 54 51 DK/NA 9 6 7 43. Do you think the - Obama campaign is saying things it believes to be true, or is it deliberately misleading people? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Saying true things 53% 53% 55% Misleading people 43 42 39 DK/NA 5 5 6 44. Do you think the - Romney campaign is saying things it believes to be true, or is it deliberately misleading people? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Saying true things 43% 40% 45% Misleading people 49 54 49 DK/NA 7 7 6 45. Have you seen any commercials on television for - Mitt Romney, or not? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Yes 94% 95% 84% No/Haven't seen 6 5 16 DK/NA - - 1 46. Have you seen any commercials on television for - Barack Obama, or not? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Yes 94% 95% 83% No/Haven't seen 5 4 17 DK/NA - - 1 47. Do you plan on watching any of the upcoming presidential debates between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Yes 91% 87% 86% No 7 10 12 DK/NA 3 3 2 47a. (FL) As you may know, the Obama administration has announced a new policy in which young illegal immigrants who came to the country as children will be able to obtain work permits and will not face deportation. Do you support or oppose this new policy? FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS FL OH PA Support 66% - - Oppose 28 - - DK/NA 6 - - 47b. (OH) Do you think the government loans to the American auto industry were mostly a success or mostly a failure? OHIO LIKELY VOTERS FL OH PA Mostly a success - 62% - Mostly a failure - 30 - DK/NA - 8 - 47c. (PA) As you may know, there have been efforts in some states to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote. Some people say this is needed to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to vote. Other people say such efforts are designed to suppress voting by minorities. What do you think, do you support or oppose efforts to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote? PENNSYLVANIA LIKELY VOTERS FL OH PA Support - - 62% Oppose - - 35 DK/NA - - 2 47d. (PA) Do you currently have government-issued photo identification such as a driver's license or U.S. passport, or not? PENNSYLVANIA LIKELY VOTERS FL OH PA Yes - - 99% No - - 1 DK/NA - - - 48. From what you've read and heard, do you think Barack Obama is removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan too quickly, not quickly enough, or is he handling this about right? LIKELY VOTERS... FL OH PA Too quickly 19% 19% 15% Not quickly enough 34 27 32 About right 42 47 43 DK/NA 5 7 9 Additional info by state: Florida: Crosstabs Demographic Summary Ohio: Crosstabs Demographic Summary Pennsylvania: Crosstabs Demographic Summary
