September 30, 2010 - Angry Voters Push Rubio To Top In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Republican Most Shares Their Values Word format Republican Marco Rubio holds a solid 46 - 33 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent in the race for Florida's U.S. Senate seat, with Democrat U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek at 18 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Rubio, a former speaker of the Florida House of Representatives and a favorite of the Tea Party movement, is benefitting from strong voter anger at the federal government, likely voters tell the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers. This first likely voter survey in Florida in this election cycle can not be compared with earlier samples of registered voters. Asked to evaluate their feelings toward the federal government: 48 percent say they are angry; 29 percent say dissatisfied; 19 percent say satisfied; 3 percent say enthusiastic. "It is no coincidence that Rubio is getting 46 percent of the vote and 48 percent of the electorate is angry at Washington," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Rubio's double-digit lead in the horse race is confirmed by a 53 - 41 percent margin for a senator who will oppose President Barack Obama's policies and a 47 - 38 percent preference that the Republicans rather than the Democrats control the U.S. Senate. "Not only does Marco Rubio have a double-digit lead in the U.S. Senate race, but more of his supporters say their mind is made up than those backing Gov. Charlie Crist and Congressman Kendrick Meek," said Brown. "Almost half of Florida's likely voters are angry at the federal government, and Rubio gets 68 percent of these angry voters. Moreover, with only 3 percent of voters undecided, Rubio just needs to hold onto what he's got, while Crist and Meek, especially, have their work cut out for them if they want to pass the leader," Brown added. "If Gov. Crist winds up losing the race, he may kick himself for giving up his day job in Tallahassee. Even though he gets only 33 percent of the vote in the three-way race for senator, voters still give him a healthy 51 - 43 percent approval rating for his job as governor. Usually, approval for one office translates into support for another, but this is not the typical political year," said Brown. "The biggest imbalance is among Democrats, 72 percent of whom approve of his job performance, but only 46 percent of whom say they will vote for him for the Senate." Rubio is getting 83 percent of the Republicans, 40 percent of independents and 8 percent of Democrats. Crist gets just 13 percent of Republicans, but 46 percent of Democrats and 45 percent of independents. Meek gets 43 percent of Democrats, but just 12 percent of independent voters and 1 percent of Republicans. While only 10 percent of Rubio voters say they might change their minds, 29 percent of Crist voters say they might change, as do 38 percent of Meek voters. "The real threat to Rubio is that somehow the Meek and Crist voters get together and decide to support one of the two," said Brown. Florida likely voters, by a 49 - 35 percent margin, have a favorable opinion of Rubio. Crist gets a split 45 - 47 percent favorability and Meek gets a negative 29 - 39 percent score. Rubio fares best when voters are asked who most shares their values, with 44 percent, almost the same number who support his candidacy. Crist's 27 percent "shares your values" mark is below his 33 percent in the horse race. Meek's 20 percent on shared values is statistically the same as his share of the horse race. From September 23 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,151 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Meek, Rubio, or Crist? (This table includes Leaners.) LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 18% 1% 43% 12% 13% 23% 9% Rubio 46 83 8 40 48 42 69 Crist 33 13 46 45 36 31 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 2 3 3 2 4 2 PartOf ANGRY WITH TeaPartyQ25 FederalGovQ27 Meek 3% 6% Rubio 81 68 Crist 13 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 2 2 6a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................................ CAND CHOICE Q6... Tot Rep Dem Ind KM MR CC Made up 78% 88% 71% 74% 62% 90% 70% Might change 22 12 28 25 38 10 29 DK/NA - - 1 - - - 1 7. (If Meek voter) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Meek or against the other candidates? (*subgroups not large enough to report) LIKELY MEEK VOTERS................................ WtBrnAgn Tot *Rep Dem *Ind Men Wom *Evnglcl For Meek 71% 73% 69% 72% Against other cand 23 20 29 19 DK/NA 6 7 2 9 8. (If Rubio voter) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Rubio or against the other candidates? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY RUBIO VOTERS............................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep *Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl For Rubio 84% 86% 82% 84% 85% 85% Against other cand 13 11 16 13 14 14 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 1 1 8a. (If Crist voter) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Crist or against the other candidates? (*subgroups not large enough to report) LIKELY CRIST VOTERS............................... WtBrnAgn Tot *Rep Dem Ind Men Wom *Evnglcl For Crist 73% 73% 73% 71% 76% Against other cand 24 25 23 26 21 DK/NA 3 2 4 3 3 9. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 29% 11% 58% 24% 27% 32% 15% Unfavorable 39 54 16 42 46 30 47 Hvn't hrd enough 31 32 25 34 26 36 35 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 PartOf ANGRY WITH TeaPartyQ25 FederalGovQ27 Favorable 10% 16% Unfavorable 60 54 Hvn't hrd enough 29 29 REFUSED 1 1 10. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 49% 83% 13% 45% 50% 47% 71% Unfavorable 35 6 63 41 39 31 17 Hvn't hrd enough 14 10 22 12 10 20 12 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 PartOf ANGRY WITH TeaPartyQ25 FederalGovQ27 Favorable 84% 69% Unfavorable 9 21 Hvn't hrd enough 7 10 REFUSED - 1 11. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 45% 21% 67% 50% 44% 45% 31% Unfavorable 47 70 23 43 50 43 61 Hvn't hrd enough 5 6 5 4 3 7 7 REFUSED 3 3 5 3 3 4 1 PartOf ANGRY WITH TeaPartyQ25 FederalGovQ27 Favorable 17% 28% Unfavorable 76 66 Hvn't hrd enough 6 5 REFUSED 1 1 19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values; Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, or Charlie Crist? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 20% 2% 50% 12% 16% 25% 9% Rubio 44 80 9 38 49 39 67 Crist 27 12 33 40 29 25 16 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 1 3 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 6 4 5 8 4 9 6 20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign; Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, or Charlie Crist? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 18% 2% 41% 12% 15% 20% 10% Rubio 44 77 9 40 48 39 64 Crist 27 12 37 35 29 25 15 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 6 6 6 5 7 5 DK/NA 5 3 7 6 3 9 6 21. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Florida generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 41% 4% 83% 41% 38% 44% 15% Oppose 53 91 12 51 56 49 80 DK/NA 6 5 5 8 6 7 5 PartOf ANGRY WITH TeaPartyQ25 FederalGovQ27 Support 6% 16% Oppose 93 80 DK/NA 1 4 22. Would you prefer to have the Democrats or the Republicans control the U.S. Senate next year or doesn't it matter to you? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Democrats 38% 2% 86% 32% 36% 39% 16% Republicans 47 90 6 40 49 43 73 Doesn't matter 12 5 6 23 10 14 9 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 ANGRY WITH FederalGovQ27 Democrats 16% Republicans 70 Doesn't matter 11 DK/NA 3 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 31% 72% 54% 51% 51% 40% Disapprove 43 63 24 37 43 42 56 DK/NA 6 6 4 9 5 7 4 25. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 20% 37% 4% 14% 19% 21% 37% No 76 58 91 81 79 71 58 DK/NA 5 5 4 5 2 7 5 27. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Enthusiastic, 3% 1% 7% 1% 3% 3% 2% Satisfied 19 5 39 16 16 23 9 Dissatisfied 29 26 31 31 27 32 29 Angry 48 67 21 51 54 40 60 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 2 0 PartOf TeaPartyQ25 Enthusiastic, - Satisfied 6 Dissatisfied 18 Angry 76 DK/NA 1 28. Does the way you feel about the way the federal government works make you more likely to vote in this year's election, less like to vote, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 60% 66% 58% 58% 57% 63% 62% Less likely - - - 1 - 1 - Doesn't make diff 38 32 41 41 42 35 37 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 - ANGRY WITH FederalGovQ27 More likely 64% Less likely - Doesn't make diff 35 DK/NA -
