October 25, 2011 - Opposition To Ohio's SB 5 Grows, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women, Union Members Push Kasich Deeper In Hole Word format Ohio voters support 57 - 32 percent the repeal of SB 5, the centerpiece of Gov. John Kasich's legislative program, as the margin against the governor's measure has almost doubled in the last month, from 51 - 38 percent for repeal September 27, a 13-point margin, to a 25-point margin in today's Quinnipiac University poll. Gov. Kasich's standing is in the same negative neighborhood as SB 5, with Ohio voters disapproving of his job performance 52 - 36 percent, down from 49 - 40 percent disapproval in September's survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. "With two weeks until Election Day, the opponents of SB 5 have strong reason to be optimistic," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The opponents had seen their 24-point margin in July close over the summer and early autumn. As we enter the home stretch, however, they have once again taken a commanding lead. Except for Republicans, just about every demographic group favors repealing the law." While Republicans oppose repeal 59 - 32 percent, their votes are buried under by Democrats who support repeal 77 - 13 percent and independent voters who agree 56 - 32 percent. Support for repeal is strong across gender, racial, income and education groups: Men, 54 - 38 percent, and women, 58 - 27 percent; Those without college degrees, 56 - 30 percent, and those with degrees, 57 - 37 percent; Whites, 54 - 35 percent, and blacks, 76 - 15 percent; Voters making over $100,000, 52 - 42 percent, those who earn less, 59 - 30 percent; Voters in union households, 70 - 24 percent, non-union households, 52 - 35 percent. "Anything is possible in politics, but with such across-the-board support for repealing SB 5, the governor and his team can't be optimistic about the fate of their law," said Brown. "Although the parts of the law that require public workers to contribute to their retirement and health care costs are popular with voters, the strong opposition to curtailing collective bargaining and seniority rights apparently is what seems to be carrying the day for the law's opponents. In the end, voters disagree 57 - 34 percent with Kasich's argument that the limits on union power are needed to balance the budget," Brown added. Ohio voter opinions on public employee issues are: Oppose 61 - 32 percent a ban on public employee strikes; Oppose 56 - 36 percent limits on public employee unions from bargaining over health care; Support 49 - 40 percent merit-based pay increases rather than seniority-base increases; Oppose 51 - 42 eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs; Support 60 - 33 percent requiring public workers to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums; Support 57 - 34 percent requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Voter opinion about the governor tracks the feelings about SB 5. Republicans give Kasich a thumbs up 71 - 23 percent, not hugely different than the 75 - 14 percent margin by which Democrats disapprove of his job performance. The difference is independent voters, who Kasich carried in his election victory in 2010, but who now give him a negative job approval rating 54 - 30 percent. Men disapprove 50 - 41 percent, while women give him a 54 - 31 percent thumbs down, compared to 51 - 35 percent last month. "The good news, if there is good news in this survey, for Gov. Kasich is that he has another three years until he faces re-election, which gives him a lot more time to change voter attitudes than he has about SB 5," said Brown. At least one Republican in Ohio, however, gets a thumbs up from voters. Sen. Rob Portman has a 38 - 26 percent approval rating. From October 17 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,668 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 36% 71% 14% 30% 41% 31% 23% 40% Disapprove 52 23 75 54 50 54 67 47 DK/NA 12 7 10 16 10 15 10 13 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Approve 38% 18% 32% 37% 36% 44% Disapprove 51 65 47 52 55 46 DK/NA 11 16 21 11 9 10 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Approve 35% 37% 34% 41% Disapprove 51 54 53 53 DK/NA 14 9 13 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 Jan 19 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 36 40 35 38 30 30 Disapprove 52 49 50 49 46 22 DK/NA 12 11 15 13 23 48 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 38% 58% 25% 35% 40% 36% 33% 39% Disapprove 26 10 39 25 29 23 33 24 DK/NA 36 32 36 40 31 41 35 37 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Approve 39% 23% 37% 34% 40% 42% Disapprove 24 46 27 28 25 22 DK/NA 37 32 35 38 35 36 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Approve 36% 42% 37% 45% Disapprove 27 25 28 25 DK/NA 37 34 35 30 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rob Portman is handling his job as United States Senator? Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 21 May 19 Mar 24 Jan 20 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 38 41 40 38 30 34 Disapprove 26 23 21 21 25 16 DK/NA 36 35 39 41 45 51 16. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very satisfied 3% 7% 1% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied 26 46 17 21 28 23 20 27 Smwht dissatisfied 34 27 36 36 33 35 31 35 Very dissatisfied 37 19 47 40 34 39 46 34 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Very satisfied 3% 2% 1% 2% 4% 3% Smwht satisfied 26 19 28 21 27 28 Smwht dissatisfied 33 38 38 37 30 35 Very dissatisfied 36 41 32 39 38 33 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Very satisfied 3% 2% 3% 4% Smwht satisfied 25 27 25 33 Smwht dissatisfied 32 38 35 32 Very dissatisfied 39 32 37 30 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*Low also 29% Mar 2011) VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 Mar 21 Oct 25 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2007 2011* Very satisfied 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 Smwht satisfied 26 31 31 30 26 49 26 Smwht dissatisfied 34 32 32 32 34 28 34 Very dissatisfied 37 32 32 35 36 16 37 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17. As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 33% 58% 15% 32% 39% 28% 25% 35% Oppose 56 33 76 55 52 59 68 52 DK/NA 11 9 9 12 9 13 7 13 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Support 35% 14% 26% 33% 36% 38% Oppose 54 75 57 57 55 51 DK/NA 11 11 17 10 9 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Support 31% 37% 29% 45% Oppose 55 58 59 51 DK/NA 14 5 12 4 TREND: As you may know, there is a new law in Ohio that would limit collective bargaining for public employees. Do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining for public employees? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law) Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011* Support 33 40 34 38 41 Oppose 56 50 52 50 48 DK/NA 11 11 14 12 10 18. As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Kept 32% 59% 13% 32% 38% 27% 24% 35% Repealed 57 32 77 56 54 58 70 52 DK/NA 11 9 9 12 7 15 7 13 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Kept 35% 15% 30% 29% 35% 36% Repealed 54 76 55 61 55 51 DK/NA 11 10 15 10 10 13 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Kept 30% 37% 30% 42% Repealed 56 57 59 52 DK/NA 14 5 11 5 TREND: As you may know there is a proposed referendum to repeal this new law. Do you think this new law which limits collective bargaining for public employees should be kept or repealed? Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 2011 2011 Kept 32 38 32 36 Repealed 57 51 56 54 DK/NA 11 11 12 10 19. Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 34% 59% 18% 31% 38% 30% 21% 38% No 57 32 75 59 56 58 73 52 DK/NA 9 9 7 10 6 13 6 11 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Yes 36% 18% 31% 33% 35% 37% No 55 70 56 59 56 52 DK/NA 9 12 13 8 9 10 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Yes 33% 36% 32% 43% No 56 58 58 53 DK/NA 11 5 9 3 TREND: Do you think limiting collective bargaining for public employees is necessary to help balance the state budget or not? Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes 34 41 38 38 37 No 57 50 50 52 55 DK/NA 9 9 11 10 8 20. The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample) UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 32% 50% 16% 36% 37% 29% 29% 33% Oppose 61 43 79 58 59 63 64 60 DK/NA 7 7 6 6 4 9 7 6 TREND: The new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees would ban all public employee strikes. Do you support or oppose banning all public employee strikes? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law) Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011* Support 32 36 36 35 35 Oppose 61 58 56 58 58 DK/NA 7 5 8 7 7 21. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample) UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 60% 81% 46% 59% 61% 58% 48% 64% Oppose 33 14 49 32 33 34 47 29 DK/NA 7 5 5 10 6 8 5 8 TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums. Do you support or oppose requiring public employees to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums? (*Mar 2011 "proposed" law) Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011* Support 60 59 60 59 66 Oppose 33 35 33 34 27 DK/NA 7 7 7 7 8 22. The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample) UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 36% 55% 23% 36% 40% 33% 30% 39% Oppose 56 34 73 56 55 57 65 53 DK/NA 7 11 4 8 5 10 5 9 TREND: The new law would prevent the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans. Do you support or oppose preventing the public employee unions from bargaining over their health insurance plans? (*May 2011 "bargaining over health insurance plans for public employees") Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 2011 2011* Support 36 39 36 38 Oppose 56 54 58 54 DK/NA 7 7 6 8 23. The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample) UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 57% 73% 47% 55% 65% 50% 50% 60% Oppose 34 20 46 34 28 39 39 32 DK/NA 9 7 7 11 7 10 10 8 TREND: The new law would require public employees to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions. Do you support or oppose requiring public workers to pay at least 10 percent of their wages for their pensions? Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 2011 2011 Support 57 56 58 58 Oppose 34 33 33 34 DK/NA 9 11 9 9 24. The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample) UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 49% 65% 40% 48% 52% 47% 43% 51% Oppose 40 26 49 42 40 40 48 37 DK/NA 11 9 11 10 8 13 8 11 TREND: The new law would replace automatic pay increases based on length of service with increases based on merit. Do you support or oppose replacing automatic pay increases based on longevity with merit pay for public employees? Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 2011 2011 Support 49 60 56 57 Oppose 40 31 35 35 DK/NA 11 8 9 7 25. The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs? (Q20-Q25 rotated and asked of half the sample) UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 42% 57% 25% 49% 49% 36% 29% 46% Oppose 51 34 66 47 46 55 63 47 DK/NA 7 9 8 4 5 9 7 7 TREND: The new law would eliminate seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs. Do you support or oppose eliminating seniority as the sole factor when determining layoffs? Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 2011 2011 2011 2011 Support 42 41 45 45 Oppose 51 53 49 50 DK/NA 7 6 6 5 26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 34% 67% 12% 30% 41% 27% 23% 37% Disapprove 55 24 78 58 51 59 70 50 DK/NA 11 8 10 12 8 14 7 12 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Approve 37% 12% 29% 35% 35% 41% Disapprove 52 74 56 54 56 47 DK/NA 11 14 15 12 9 12 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Approve 32% 38% 32% 43% Disapprove 56 54 57 51 DK/NA 12 9 11 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling the state budget? Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 May 18 Mar 23 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 34 35 32 35 31 Disapprove 55 53 54 53 51 DK/NA 11 12 14 12 18 27. Do you think that the budget approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Kasich is fair or unfair to people like you? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Fair 32% 62% 12% 28% 38% 26% 22% 35% Unfair 52 24 75 51 48 55 68 47 DK/NA 16 14 13 21 13 19 10 18 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Fair 34% 9% 25% 33% 34% 34% Unfair 48 79 51 54 52 47 DK/NA 17 12 24 13 14 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Fair 28% 41% 30% 45% Unfair 54 48 54 46 DK/NA 18 11 16 9 TREND: Do you think that the budget approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Kasich is fair or unfair to people like you? Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 2011 2011 2011 Fair 32 36 32 Unfair 52 49 50 DK/NA 16 15 18 28. What do you think about the cuts in state spending used to balance the state budget? Do you think the cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right? UNION HSHLD Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Too far 36% 16% 56% 36% 34% 39% 47% 33% Not far enough 22 31 12 23 25 19 17 24 About right 28 41 20 25 32 24 23 29 DK/NA 14 11 12 17 9 19 13 15 AGE IN YEARS..... WhtBrnAgn White Black 18-34 35-54 55+ Evnglcl Too far 34% 57% 40% 35% 35% 30% Not far enough 22 18 23 27 18 26 About right 29 15 21 23 34 31 DK/NA 15 11 16 14 13 13 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME No Yes <100K >100K Too far 35% 40% 37% 34% Not far enough 22 22 21 30 About right 27 28 28 27 DK/NA 16 11 14 9 TREND: What do you think about the cuts in state spending used to balance the state budget? Do you think the cuts in state spending go too far, not far enough or are they about right? Oct 25 Sep 27 Jul 20 2011 2011 2011 Too far 36 35 34 Not far enough 22 26 25 About right 28 29 30 DK/NA 14 11 11 Demographic Summary
