March 20, 2012 - Obama Back On Top In Virginia Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; McDonnell On Ticket Doesn't Help GOP Word format President Barack Obama leads all the Republican presidential candidates in Virginia, with his 50 - 42 percent margin over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney his biggest lead over Romney in this election cycle, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Putting Gov. Bob McDonnell on the ticket as the GOP vice-presidential nominee does not help the Republicans carry the state, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In a matchup of President Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden against Romney and McDonnell, the Democrats win 50 - 43 percent. Obama wins head to head against other Republican contenders: 54 - 35 percent over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich; 49 - 40 percent over former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum; 49 - 39 percent over Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul. In Virginia's U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine has 47 percent to Republican George Allen's 44 percent, too close to call. "President Barack Obama has opened up some daylight in Virginia against his Republican challengers," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "His margin over Romney, in the state where Obama has been struggling after his win in 2008, compares to a slight 47 - 43 percent lead in February." "The president's lead over Romney in Virginia is due mainly to his strong margin among women, 52 - 39 percent, but he also wins 48 percent of men to Romney's 45 percent." Obama leads 97 - 2 percent among Democrats and gets 46 percent of independent voters to Romney's 43 percent. Romney is ahead among Republicans 84 - 6 percent. With McDonnell on the GOP ticket, women still vote Democratic 51 - 40 percent while men split with 48 percent for the Democrats and 46 percent for the Republicans. Independent voters go 45 percent Democrat to 43 percent Republican, a statistical tie. "There has been speculation about Gov. Bob McDonnell being a possible choice for vice president by the eventual GOP nominee," Brown said. "What this Quinnipiac University survey finds is that despite the governor's approval ratings with Virginia voters, he does not appear to help give the GOP the state's electoral votes." Overall, Obama is seen most positively by Virginia registered voters when they are asked to rate the candidates favorably or unfavorably. The president gets a 51 - 44 percent favorability. Romney gets a negative 36 - 43 percent favorability rating, his first negative in Virginia, while Santorum gets a negative 33 - 39 percent score. Virginia voters approve 49 - 47 percent of the job the president is doing, Obama's best score in almost a year, and say 49 - 47 percent he deserves to be reelected, also his best score. "These numbers don't constitute a mandate, but they are an improvement," Brown said. U.S. Senate Race Both candidates in the Senate race get positive favorability ratings, 48 - 29 percent for Kaine and 41 - 26 percent for Allen. In the matchup, women back Kaine 49 - 40 percent while men go 48 percent for Allen and 46 percent for Kaine. Independent voters also are in a statistical tie, with 45 percent for Allen and 43 percent for Kaine. "Virginia's U.S. Senate race has been too-close-to-call from the get-go," said Brown. "It remains a squeaker and is likely to remain that way until the November election. An Obama victory in the presidential race would help Kaine, while if the Republican carries the state in November that would help Allen." From March 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,034 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Newt Gingrich the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 54% 10% 97% 53% 52% 55% 40% 94% Gingrich 35 73 2 34 37 34 45 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 3 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 9 1 5 4 5 7 - DK/NA 4 6 1 5 4 5 6 - WHITE................................ COLLEGE DEG COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Yes No Men Wom Yes No Obama 56% 52% 49% 34% 39% 41% 24% 46% Gingrich 35 35 41 48 47 44 59 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 4 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 6 4 8 6 7 7 4 DK/NA 3 5 3 8 4 7 8 4 Miltry ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... HsHold <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 44% 60% 50% 55% 51% 59% 53% 50% Gingrich 45 26 37 35 39 28 36 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 3 2 4 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 8 4 3 4 6 4 5 DK/NA 3 5 5 4 3 3 5 4 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Newt Gingrich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 2012 2012 2011 Obama 54 51 46 Gingrich 35 37 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 4 DK/NA 4 5 6 2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 49% 6% 95% 46% 48% 51% 36% 95% Santorum 40 82 2 40 42 39 52 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 3 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 - 4 3 2 4 - DK/NA 6 7 3 6 4 7 6 - WHITE................................ COLLEGE DEG COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Yes No Men Wom Yes No Obama 53% 47% 47% 29% 34% 37% 17% 42% Santorum 38 42 45 56 53 51 72 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 3 5 5 3 1 3 DK/NA 4 7 3 8 4 8 9 5 Miltry ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... HsHold <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 43% 57% 44% 47% 51% 55% 48% 47% Santorum 46 32 41 44 41 34 41 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 2 4 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 4 1 2 3 3 3 DK/NA 5 6 8 6 4 5 6 5 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Mar 20 Feb 08 2012 2012 Obama 49 49 Santorum 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 DK/NA 6 5 3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Ron Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 49% 9% 91% 46% 47% 50% 35% 90% Paul 39 70 5 41 42 36 49 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 11 - 5 5 5 7 - DK/NA 6 7 4 6 4 8 7 2 WHITE................................ COLLEGE DEG COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Yes No Men Wom Yes No Obama 53% 46% 46% 28% 34% 37% 21% 41% Paul 37 39 45 52 51 47 59 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 6 5 9 8 6 9 4 DK/NA 4 8 3 10 5 8 8 5 Miltry ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... HsHold <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 41% 51% 43% 49% 50% 51% 48% 48% Paul 48 33 43 37 41 41 40 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 7 DK/NA 4 9 8 6 3 3 6 6 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Ron Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote? Mar 20 Feb 08 2012 2012 Obama 49 47 Paul 39 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 6 DK/NA 6 6 4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 6% 97% 46% 48% 52% 36% 95% Romney 42 84 2 43 45 39 54 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 - 5 3 4 5 - DK/NA 3 5 - 4 2 4 4 - WHITE................................ COLLEGE DEG COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Yes No Men Wom Yes No Obama 50% 50% 42% 32% 36% 37% 23% 40% Romney 44 41 51 55 55 52 66 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 2 1 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 2 7 4 6 6 3 DK/NA 2 4 2 5 3 5 5 3 Miltry ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... HsHold <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 41% 58% 50% 48% 46% 51% 52% 46% Romney 53 29 42 47 47 39 40 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 6 4 - 4 5 4 3 DK/NA 2 5 3 2 3 2 3 4 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 Sep 15 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 Obama 50 47 42 44 42 Romney 42 43 44 45 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 3 5 7 7 9 5. Let's say the Democratic ticket is Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president and the Republican ticket is Mitt Romney for president and Bob McDonnell for vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama/Biden 50% 7% 96% 45% 48% 51% 37% 93% Romney/McDonnell 43 85 2 43 46 40 55 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 - 6 3 3 4 - DK/NA 3 3 1 4 2 4 3 2 WHITE................................ COLLEGE DEG COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Yes No Men Wom Yes No Obama/Biden 50% 49% 43% 33% 36% 37% 23% 41% Romney/McDonnell 43 42 51 57 56 53 70 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 - 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 2 5 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 2 4 2 4 2 4 3 3 Miltry ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... HsHold <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama/Biden 41% 59% 50% 48% 46% 51% 52% 46% Romney/McDonnell 55 32 42 46 47 41 41 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 4 1 4 3 4 4 DK/NA 2 4 3 4 1 3 2 4 6. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 36% 66% 6% 39% 40% 32% 43% 8% Unfavorable 43 17 69 41 45 41 39 60 Hvn't hrd enough 18 14 21 16 13 22 15 29 REFUSED 3 2 4 3 2 4 3 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 2012 2012 2011 2011 Favorable 36 43 37 38 Unfavorable 43 39 27 29 Hvn't hrd enough 18 15 33 31 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 7. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 33% 66% 8% 32% 38% 28% 39% 11% Unfavorable 39 10 59 45 43 36 36 54 Hvn't hrd enough 27 24 32 22 18 34 23 35 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 20 Feb 08 2012 2012 Favorable 33 32 Unfavorable 39 28 Hvn't hrd enough 27 38 REFUSED 1 1 8. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 51% 8% 93% 50% 49% 53% 39% 93% Unfavorable 44 87 3 44 47 41 56 4 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 3 4 2 4 3 2 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 2012 2012 2011 2011 Favorable 51 50 45 45 Unfavorable 44 47 47 49 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 3 2 REFUSED 2 2 4 3 9. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More 33% 41% 33% 29% 39% 28% 32% 39% Less 25 26 14 35 20 30 28 7 About the same 41 33 53 35 40 42 39 54 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - WHITE................................ COLLEGE DEG COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Yes No Men Wom Yes No More 36% 31% 35% 30% 40% 24% 33% 32% Less 22 27 22 32 22 34 29 28 About the same 41 41 41 37 36 41 37 40 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 - Miltry ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... HsHold <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ More 35% 30% 29% 33% 36% 34% 31% 34% Less 21 26 22 26 27 24 30 21 About the same 43 44 46 41 37 42 39 43 DK/NA 1 - 3 - - 1 - 1 TREND: Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 2012 2012 2011 2011 More 33 31 30 35 Less 25 23 23 20 About the same 41 46 46 44 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 10. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were George Allen the Republican and Tim Kaine the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Allen 44% 87% 4% 45% 48% 40% 53% 6% Kaine 47 8 90 43 46 49 38 83 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 8 4 6 11 4 11 7 11 East West ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... North SthEst Rchmnd Shnd <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K Allen 42% 39% 43% 54% 39% 40% 43% 46% Kaine 48 52 49 37 45 49 50 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 2 - 1 DK/NA 8 8 7 8 14 9 7 5 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were George Allen the Republican and Tim Kaine the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 Sep 15 Jun 30 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Allen 44 44 44 44 45 42 Kaine 47 45 42 45 44 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 2 DK/NA(VOL) 8 9 12 9 9 11 11. Is your opinion of George Allen favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 41% 75% 15% 40% 43% 39% 47% 19% Unfavorable 26 5 49 24 29 23 24 35 Hvn't hrd enough 32 19 35 34 26 36 27 45 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of George Allen favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 2012 2012 2011 2011 Favorable 41 42 41 45 Unfavorable 26 29 27 28 Hvn't hrd enough 32 27 30 26 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 12. Is your opinion of Tim Kaine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 48% 19% 79% 46% 47% 48% 44% 68% Unfavorable 29 54 3 32 33 25 34 6 Hvn't hrd enough 23 26 19 21 18 27 21 26 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Tim Kaine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 2012 2012 2011 2011 Favorable 48 46 42 47 Unfavorable 29 29 27 29 Hvn't hrd enough 23 25 28 23 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 49% 10% 92% 46% 47% 52% 36% 92% Disapprove 47 86 4 49 50 43 59 5 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 3 5 4 3 WHITE................................ COLLEGE DEG COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Yes No Men Wom Yes No Approve 51% 48% 44% 32% 35% 37% 23% 41% Disapprove 47 46 54 63 62 57 70 57 DK/NA 2 6 2 5 3 5 7 2 Miltry ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... HsHold <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 41% 59% 50% 43% 48% 53% 51% 46% Disapprove 55 38 44 50 49 43 45 51 DK/NA 4 3 6 6 2 4 4 3 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 Sep 15 Jun 30 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 49 46 42 45 40 48 Disapprove 47 49 51 52 54 48 DK/NA 4 5 7 3 6 4 20. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 49% 9% 95% 45% 48% 51% 36% 95% No/Does not 47 89 3 49 50 44 60 5 DK/NA 4 2 2 6 3 5 4 1 WHITE................................ COLLEGE DEG COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Yes No Men Wom Yes No Yes/Deserves 51% 49% 42% 32% 35% 37% 22% 39% No/Does not 46 47 55 64 62 59 74 58 DK/NA 3 4 3 5 3 5 4 4 Miltry ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... HsHold <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes/Deserves 41% 58% 49% 47% 47% 54% 50% 46% No/Does not 55 38 44 50 50 42 46 50 DK/NA 4 4 7 3 3 4 4 4 TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 Oct 11 Sep 15 Jun 30 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 49 46 41 44 41 47 No/Does not 47 48 53 51 51 47 DK/NA 4 5 6 5 8 6 21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 47% 7% 89% 44% 45% 49% 34% 89% Romney 45 86 6 47 49 42 58 7 DK/NA 8 7 5 9 6 9 8 4 WHITE................................ COLLEGE DEG COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Yes No Men Wom Yes No Obama 47% 48% 38% 31% 34% 34% 21% 37% Romney 47 44 55 60 60 56 70 55 DK/NA 7 8 7 9 6 10 8 8 Miltry ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... HsHold <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 42% 56% 50% 46% 42% 55% 47% 44% Romney 53 38 43 48 52 41 45 48 DK/NA 5 6 7 6 7 4 8 8 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Mar 20 Feb 08 Dec 21 2012 2012 2011 Obama 47 44 41 Romney 45 47 46 DK/NA 8 9 13 Demographic Summary
