October 16, 2012 - Romney Closing In On Obama In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Casey-Smith Senate Race Too Close To Call Word format Watch Video: Assistant Director Tim Malloy discusses poll results Clip Information and Download: FLV File - For Website (1920x1080 / 50.8MB) Original .MP4 File - For Broadcast (1920x1080 / 315.7MB) Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed a 12-point gap with President Barack Obama and now trails the president 50 - 46 percent among Pennsylvania likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 54 - 42 percent Obama lead in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's survey, men back Romney 54 - 43 percent, compared to a 49 - 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 - 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 - 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 - 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 - 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 - 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney. Only 7 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say they might change their mind in the next 21 days. "Gov. Mitt Romney is coming on strong in the Keystone State, especially among white Catholics," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Pennsylvania voters say Vice President Joseph Biden, a native son and a Catholic, won the debate and is more qualified than U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan to be president. But that doesn't seem to be lifting the top of the ticket." Pennsylvania likely voters say 42 - 37 percent that Pennsylvania-born Vice President Joseph Biden beat U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan in last week's debate. Independent voters say 41 - 35 percent that Biden won. But more than 60 percent of voters say the debate does not affect their presidential vote. Biden is more qualified than Ryan to serve as president, voters say 50 - 42 percent. By a 52 - 45 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Romney gets a divided 46 - 44 percent favorability rating. U.S. Senate Race Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Casey Jr. has 48 percent in his reelection bid to 45 percent for businessman Tom Smith, his Republican challenger. In this Senate race, men go Republican 53 - 42 percent, while women back the Democrat 53 - 38 percent. Independent voters are divided 44 - 44 percent. "Tom Smith's relentless TV ad barrage has lifted him out of the coal mine to give Sen. Robert Casey a run for his money," Malloy said. "Casey had a 55 - 37 percent lead in Quinnipiac University's August 1 survey. Now this race is too close to call." Pennsylvania voters disapprove of the job Gov. Tom Corbett is doing by a narrow 42 - 38 percent, compared to a 47 - 36 percent disapproval September 26. From October 12 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,519 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 5% 89% 50% 43% 57% 43% 97% Romney 46 93 9 43 54 39 53 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 3 2 - 1 - DK/NA 3 1 2 3 2 4 2 3 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 49% 41% 35% 43% 37% 50% 26% 44% Romney 49 55 61 56 60 46 70 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 - 2 1 1 - DK/NA 1 3 3 1 1 3 4 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 54% 49% 58% 49% 51% 49% 59% 50% 48% Romney 43 47 37 46 48 48 36 47 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 - 2 3 1 - DK/NA 1 3 4 4 1 1 1 2 3 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Obama 50 54 53 Romney 46 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 3 2 4 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS....... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 Tot Obama Romney Mind made up 92% 91% 93% Might change 7 8 6 DK/NA 1 1 - TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOSEN...... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Mind made up 92 92 87 Might change 7 7 12 DK/NA 1 1 1 2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 46% 90% 10% 45% 53% 40% 53% - Unfavorable 44 6 78 45 39 50 39 86 Hvn't hrd enough 7 4 9 8 7 7 6 10 REFUSED 2 - 4 3 1 4 2 3 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 50% 54% 62% 55% 58% 47% 67% 55% Unfavorable 44 36 28 38 34 44 22 38 Hvn't hrd enough 4 7 8 5 7 6 8 6 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 1 3 3 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 47% 46% 36% 44% 47% 51% 40% 45% 48% Unfavorable 47 43 51 46 46 42 52 45 42 Hvn't hrd enough 5 8 9 7 5 5 7 8 7 REFUSED 2 3 4 3 1 1 - 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 46 41 39 Unfavorable 44 50 47 Hvn't hrd enough 7 8 11 REFUSED 2 2 3 3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 52% 8% 88% 54% 45% 59% 46% 98% Unfavorable 45 89 9 44 54 37 52 - Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 - REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 50% 44% 37% 45% 40% 52% 28% 47% Unfavorable 47 54 60 52 59 44 70 51 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 1 1 - 2 - 1 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 56% 51% 58% 52% 53% 51% 64% 51% 49% Unfavorable 42 46 39 46 44 48 34 46 48 Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 - - 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 52 54 53 Unfavorable 45 43 42 Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 2 REFUSED 1 2 3 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Tom Smith the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey Jr. or Smith? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Casey Jr. 48% 10% 83% 44% 42% 53% 43% 86% Smith 45 88 12 44 53 38 51 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 2 5 11 5 9 6 9 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Casey Jr. 49% 40% 35% 45% 37% 49% 25% 47% Smith 46 53 60 49 58 43 70 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 6 6 4 9 5 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Casey Jr. 52% 46% 56% 50% 46% 47% 50% 49% 47% Smith 41 47 37 43 49 47 37 44 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 7 7 7 5 6 12 6 5 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Tom Smith the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey Jr. or Smith? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Casey Jr. 48 49 55 Smith 45 43 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 7 8 8 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 38% 66% 17% 35% 48% 29% 42% 12% Disapprove 42 21 57 47 40 44 41 50 DK/NA 20 13 26 18 12 27 16 39 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve 39% 44% 46% 47% 52% 33% 49% 44% Disapprove 46 39 37 39 38 45 32 42 DK/NA 15 17 17 14 11 22 18 14 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 36% 39% 33% 35% 43% 40% 30% 41% 39% Disapprove 48 40 43 42 42 47 38 41 44 DK/NA 16 21 24 23 15 13 31 18 17 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Approve 38 36 38 Disapprove 42 47 45 DK/NA 20 17 17 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 50% 7% 87% 50% 44% 56% 43% 97% Disapprove 48 91 10 48 55 41 55 2 DK/NA 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve 47% 40% 34% 43% 38% 48% 27% 43% Disapprove 51 57 63 55 61 49 71 54 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 53% 48% 56% 52% 48% 47% 61% 47% 48% Disapprove 46 49 40 47 48 53 37 49 50 DK/NA 2 3 3 1 4 1 1 3 2 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Approve 50 51 49 Disapprove 48 45 46 DK/NA 2 3 4 7. Which candidate do you think did the best job, or won, Thursday night's vice presidential debate Paul Ryan or Joe Biden? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Ryan 37% 74% 7% 35% 42% 34% 43% 2% Biden 42 7 73 41 40 45 37 79 TIE (VOL) 5 5 4 6 6 4 5 2 DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) 11 8 13 13 7 14 10 15 DK/NA 4 5 3 5 5 4 5 3 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Ryan 38% 45% 50% 46% 46% 40% 58% 43% Biden 40 35 29 37 35 39 23 38 TIE (VOL) 7 5 4 6 6 5 4 6 DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) 11 10 10 8 8 13 9 9 DK/NA 3 5 6 3 5 4 6 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Ryan 35% 39% 34% 37% 39% 37% 28% 37% 41% Biden 45 41 49 44 39 42 50 41 42 TIE (VOL) 6 4 4 3 7 7 2 6 5 DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) 11 11 9 11 12 8 13 13 8 DK/NA 3 5 4 5 3 5 6 3 5 8. Did you watch or listen to the vice presidential debate between Paul Ryan and Joe Biden, or not? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 81% 85% 77% 81% 84% 77% 82% 69% No 18 15 21 18 15 21 17 27 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Yes 85% 81% 82% 86% 85% 80% 82% 84% No 15 18 18 14 15 19 17 15 DK/NA - 1 1 - - 1 1 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes 86% 78% 80% 77% 82% 88% 74% 80% 83% No 14 20 20 21 17 12 24 18 16 DK/NA - 1 - 2 1 1 1 2 1 9. Did the vice presidential debate make you more likely to vote for - Barack Obama, less likely, or did it have no effect on your vote choice? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 17% 2% 35% 12% 15% 20% 14% 39% Less likely 18 36 3 18 19 17 20 - Had no effect 62 59 59 69 65 60 63 57 DK/NA 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No More likely 12% 15% 11% 14% 12% 16% 9% 13% Less likely 18 22 24 22 21 20 31 20 Had no effect 70 59 62 63 66 60 55 65 DK/NA - 4 3 1 2 4 5 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ More likely 14% 19% 22% 17% 16% 13% 15% 16% 20% Less likely 16 18 13 21 17 16 11 16 21 Had no effect 69 59 62 59 66 70 73 65 56 DK/NA - 4 3 3 1 - 1 3 3 10. Did the vice presidential debate make you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, less likely, or did it have no effect on your vote choice? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 19% 40% 4% 17% 20% 19% 22% 3% Less likely 15 2 29 13 14 17 13 29 Had no effect 63 56 64 68 64 61 62 64 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No More likely 20% 23% 25% 25% 22% 22% 30% 22% Less likely 11 14 11 12 12 14 9 12 Had no effect 68 59 61 63 64 60 57 65 DK/NA - 4 3 1 2 4 3 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ More likely 18% 20% 16% 20% 21% 16% 13% 18% 21% Less likely 13 17 22 13 14 14 16 15 16 Had no effect 69 60 57 64 65 70 69 64 60 DK/NA - 4 5 3 1 - 3 3 3 11. Who do you think is best qualified to serve as president if it becomes necessary Paul Ryan or Joe Biden? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Ryan 42% 86% 9% 38% 49% 36% 48% - Biden 50 8 84 53 44 55 44 90 DK/NA 8 5 7 10 6 9 8 9 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Ryan 45% 50% 57% 50% 55% 41% 65% 48% Biden 49 41 34 45 39 49 28 45 DK/NA 5 9 9 5 6 9 8 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Ryan 41% 43% 37% 39% 45% 43% 34% 43% 45% Biden 55 47 56 49 50 51 56 49 48 DK/NA 5 9 7 12 5 6 10 8 7 Demographic Summary
