March 31, 2016 - Clinton, Trump Have Big Leads In New York Primaries, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Adopted Daughter Thumps Native Son, Edges Kasich Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have the home-court advantage in New York State's Democratic and Republican primaries as Clinton tops Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 54 - 42 percent while Trump leads among Republicans with 56 percent, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 20 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 19 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

New York remains solidly blue as either Clinton or Sanders top any Republican in the head-to-head general election matchups, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds, with some margins approaching 2-1. November matchups show:
  • Clinton beating Trump 53 - 33 percent;
  • Clinton over Cruz 53 - 32 percent;
  • Clinton edging Kasich 46 - 41 percent;
  • Sanders topping Trump 56 - 32 percent;
  • Sanders beating Cruz 56 - 28 percent;
  • Sanders besting Kasich 47 - 37 percent.
Only 4 percent of Republican likely primary voters are undecided in the primary, but 23 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind. Among Democratic likely primary voters, 4 percent are undecided and 21 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

"The home-court advantage helps both party's front-runners in the presidential primaries in New York," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Maurice Carroll.

"Donald Trump, whose name is emblazoned all over New York City buildings, trounces the other two Republicans, while Hillary Clinton, the adopted daughter from Chappaqua leads Sanders in double digits on the Democratic side.

"In the general election match-up Clinton wipes out Sen. Ted Cruz or Trump, but there's some sentiment for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who trails Clinton by 5 points," Carrol added.

"When she was New York's junior senator, Clinton worked hard to woo upstaters, but it's only astronomical leads in New York City that build her big overall margins. She trails Kasich and only edges Cruz and Trump upstate and in suburbia."

In New York State's GOP primary, men go 63 percent for Trump, 18 percent for Kasich and 16 percent for Cruz. Women go 48 percent for Trump, 25 percent for Cruz and 21 percent for Kasich. Trump leads among Tea Party members and conservative voters of every stripe. He also leads among Republicans of all ages.

There are gender and racial gaps in the Democratic primary as women pick Clinton over Sanders 59 - 37 percent, while men go 49 percent for Sanders and 46 percent for Clinton. White Democrats are divided with 48 percent for Clinton and 47 percent for Sanders, while black Democrats back Clinton 66 - 31 percent.

Sanders leads 57 - 43 percent among self-described "very liberal" Democrats, while Clinton leads among "somewhat liberal" and "moderate to liberal" Democrats. Sanders also leads 63 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 44 years old, while Clinton takes older voters.

The gender gap carries into the Clinton-Trump matchup as women back Clinton 60 - 27 percent while men go 45 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Trump. She tops Trump 44 - 37 percent among independent voters. New York City gives Clinton her margin of victory, 68 - 22 percent. She edges Trump 44 - 40 percent upstate and 46 - 41 percent among suburban voters.

Trump, Cruz and Clinton all get negative favorability ratings, 30 - 65 percent for Trump; 26 - 57 percent for Cruz and 45 - 49 percent for Clinton. Sanders gets a positive 54 - 30 percent favorability, with 43 - 18 percent favorable for Kasich.

From March 22 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,667 New York State voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 457 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 693 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cruz, Kasich, or Trump?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS...................................
                                   POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cruz                 20%    31%    38%    17%    12%    16%    25%    18%    21%
Kasich               19      -      8     13     31     18     21     26     15
Trump                56     68     53     64     51     63     48     50     60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      1      -      6      6      4      5      5      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......
                     18-44  45-64  65+
 
Cruz                 24%    21%    18%
Kasich               26     14     21
Trump                50     59     57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      6      4
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS......................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Kasich        Trump
 
Made up              75%           57%           78%           80%
Might change         23            43            21            17
DK/NA                 2             -             1             3
 
 
2. If the Democratic primary were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Clinton or Sanders?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              54%    43%    51%    61%    46%    59%    54%    54%
Sanders              42     57     48     32     49     37     42     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      -      2      6      4      4      4      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......
                     18-44  45-64  65+    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              36%    60%    73%    48%    66%
Sanders              63     35     22     47     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      5      5      4      3
 
 
2A. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS...........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot           Clinton       Sanders
 
Made up              78%           80%           76%
Might change         21            20            23
DK/NA                 1             1             1
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              53%    10%    87%    44%    47%    59%    55%    57%    50%    54%
Cruz                 32     71      5     38     39     26     32     32     32     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      1      2      2      2      2      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7     12      4      8      8      6      7      5      9      9
DK/NA                 5      4      3      7      4      7      4      5      8      3
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Clinton              43%    67%    48%
Cruz                 41     20     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      8      7      8
DK/NA                 5      6      7
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              46%     4%    82%    33%    40%    52%    50%    49%    41%    49%
Kasich               41     83     11     51     47     35     37     41     44     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      2      2      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      9      4      4      7      5      6      4      6      5
DK/NA                 6      3      3     10      4      7      7      5      8      4
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Clinton              38%    61%    38%
Kasich               50     28     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      5      7
DK/NA                 4      6      8
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Clinton              53%    10%    88%    44%    45%    60%    58%    57%    48%    53%
Trump                33     78      5     37     41     27     25     31     38     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      2      2      2      1      3      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      6      4      9      7      5     11      4      5      5
DK/NA                 5      4      2      9      4      6      5      4      7      5
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Clinton              44%    68%    46%
Trump                40     22     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      8      6      4
DK/NA                 4      4      8
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Sanders              56%    14%    86%    52%    53%    60%    65%    60%    51%    53%
Cruz                 28     68      4     31     35     23     28     28     29     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      1      1      2      1      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7     11      4      7      6      7      4      3      9      8
DK/NA                 7      5      5      9      5      9      3      6     10      7
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Sanders              50%    67%    49%
Cruz                 36     17     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      8      8
DK/NA                 7      6      7
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Sanders              47%     6%    79%    38%    44%    50%    57%    53%    40%    42%
Kasich               37     79     10     43     42     32     32     32     44     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      1      1      2      1      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6     10      4      5      6      6      3      5      7      8
DK/NA                 8      4      6     14      6     10      7      8      9      9
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Sanders              42%    58%    37%
Kasich               43     25     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      7      5
DK/NA                 8      8     11
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Sanders              56%    12%    87%    53%    51%    61%    69%    61%    49%    52%
Trump                32     77      6     33     39     26     22     30     38     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      2      1      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      6      4      6      5      6      4      5      6      6
DK/NA                 5      3      3      7      3      6      5      3      7      5
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Sanders              51%    67%    49%
Trump                38     20     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      7      4
DK/NA                 5      5      5
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            45%     7%    78%    33%    39%    50%    40%    47%    45%    51%
Unfavorable          49     90     18     60     56     44     54     46     51     45
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      3      4      2      5      5      4      2      3
REFUSED               2      -      1      3      2      1      1      2      2      1
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            34%    58%    43%
Unfavorable          61     36     53
Hvn't hrd enough      3      5      3
REFUSED               2      1      1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            54%    18%    74%    56%    53%    54%    65%    59%    47%    49%
Unfavorable          30     64      9     30     34     25     20     24     35     35
Hvn't hrd enough     15     17     16     12     12     18     14     15     16     15
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      2      2      1      2      2      2
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            51%    58%    51%
Unfavorable          33     22     37
Hvn't hrd enough     14     19     11
REFUSED               2      1      2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            26%    49%    10%    30%    32%    21%    24%    30%    26%    24%
Unfavorable          57     40     68     55     55     58     56     53     58     59
Hvn't hrd enough     16     10     21     13     12     20     16     17     14     16
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      1      2      3      -      1      1
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            31%    19%    30%
Unfavorable          52     61     57
Hvn't hrd enough     15     18     13
REFUSED               2      2      1
 
 
12. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            43%    59%    31%    48%    48%    38%    27%    46%    46%    51%
Unfavorable          18     14     22     13     20     16     16     17     20     18
Hvn't hrd enough     38     27     46     38     30     45     56     37     33     30
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      2      1      1      -      1      2
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            45%    36%    50%
Unfavorable          17     19     17
Hvn't hrd enough     37     43     32
REFUSED               1      2      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               AGE IN YRS..............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-34  35-49  50-64  65+
 
Favorable            30%    68%     8%    30%    38%    23%    18%    30%    36%    30%
Unfavorable          65     27     89     63     57     71     75     69     57     63
Hvn't hrd enough      3      3      2      5      2      4      4      1      4      5
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      2      2      3      -      2      2
 
                     AREA.............
                     UpStat NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            33%    20%    40%
Unfavorable          61     74     56
Hvn't hrd enough      3      4      4
REFUSED               3      2      1
 
 

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