April 6, 2016 - Trump Leads In Pennsylvania As Clinton Edges Sanders, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Boy Next Door Kasich Runs Best In November Matchups Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Ohio Gov. John Kasich is in third place among likely Republican voters in Pennsylvania's April 26 primary, 15 percentage points behind front runner Donald Trump, but he is the only Republican who beats either Democratic candidate in head-to-head November matchups in this key swing state, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Trump leads among likely Republican primary voters with 39 percent, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 30 percent and Kasich with 24 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 50 - 44 percent among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters.

Only 7 percent of Republicans are undecided, but 27 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind by April 26. Democrats have similar numbers, 6 percent undecided and 22 percent who might change their mind.

In head-to-head general election matchups:
  • Kasich buries Clinton 51 - 35 percent;
  • Kasich tops Sanders 46 - 40 percent;
  • Clinton gets 45 percent to Trump's 42 percent;
  • Clinton ties Cruz 43 - 43 percent;
  • Sanders tops Trump 48 - 40 percent;
  • Sanders beats Cruz 46 - 38 percent.
"Can you be mired in third place among Pennsylvania Republicans and still be your party's best bet come Election Day? Welcome to Gov. John Kasich's world, where the big prize is tantalizingly close, but blocked by two candidates with the same goal," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio are critical presidential swing states. Since 1960, no one has won the White House without taking two of these three states," Malloy added. "Kasich is ahead of Clinton and Sanders in his home state, and now we see how strong he is next door, if he can jump over Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz. But he'll have to grow wings pretty soon."

There is a wide gender gap among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters as men back Sanders 53 - 40 percent, while women back Clinton 56 - 38 percent.

"Very liberal" Democrats go to Sanders 63 - 33 percent. "Somewhat liberal" Democrats back Clinton 51 - 43 percent. "Moderate/conservative" Democrats go to Clinton 55 - 38 percent. Sanders leads 67 - 27 percent among voters 18 to 44 years old, while Clinton leads among older voters.

Among Republicans, Trump gets 45 percent of men, with 32 percent for Cruz and 18 percent for Kasich. He also gets 33 percent of women, with 30 percent for Kasich and 28 percent for Cruz.

Tea Party members go 55 percent for Cruz, 34 percent for Trump and 7 percent for Kasich. Cruz also takes 49 percent of white, born again Evangelical Christians, with 29 percent for Trump and 19 percent for Kasich. "Very conservative" Republicans go 50 percent for Cruz, 29 percent for Trump and 15 percent for Kasich. "Somewhat conservative" Republicans go 44 percent for Trump and 23 percent each for Cruz and Kasich. "Moderate/liberal" Republicans go 45 percent for Trump, 35 percent for Kasich and 14 percent for Cruz.

Kasich has the best net favorability rating, 49 - 17 percent favorable, with Sanders at 49 - 37 percent favorable. Trump, Clinton and Cruz all have negative ratings, 32 - 60 percent for Trump, 35 - 59 percent for Clinton and 32 - 50 percent for Cruz.

From March 30 - April 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,737 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 578 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points and 514 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cruz, Kasich, or Trump?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS..........................................
                                   Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            Tea    BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Party  Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cruz                 30%    55%    49%    50%    23%    14%    32%    28%    33%    28%
Kasich               24      7     19     15     23     35     18     30     34     19
Trump                39     34     29     29     44     45     45     33     30     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      5      3      6     10      6      6      9      3      9
 
 
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS......................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1...........
                     Tot           Cruz          Kasich        Trump
 
Made up              70%           73%           61%           74%
Might change         27            25            38            22
DK/NA                 3             3             1             4
 
 
2. If the Democratic primary were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Clinton or Sanders?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              50%    33%    51%    55%    40%    56%    56%    46%
Sanders              44     63     43     38     53     38     41     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      4      6      7      7      6      3      8
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......
                     18-44  45-64  65+
 
Clinton              27%    56%    64%
Sanders              67     41     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      4     11
 
 
2A. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
                     LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS...........
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2
                     Tot           Clinton       Sanders
 
Made up              78%           77%           78%
Might change         22            23            22
DK/NA                 -             -             -
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              43%     8%    87%    37%    37%    48%    51%    39%
Cruz                 43     77      7     40     48     38     38     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      1      6      4      3      3      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      8      2     13      8      6      5      8
DK/NA                 4      3      3      4      3      5      2      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              56%    37%    43%    38%    30%    42%    36%    87%
Cruz                 36     45     42     47     55     43     49      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      5      4      2      3      3      3      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3     10      6      8      9      7      8      1
DK/NA                 1      4      4      5      3      5      4      3
 
 
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              35%     4%    79%    25%    29%    41%    40%    33%
Kasich               51     85     12     54     56     46     53     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      1      5      3      2      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      5      3     10      7      5      3      7
DK/NA                 5      3      5      6      4      6      3      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              48%    29%    36%    31%    23%    34%    29%    84%
Kasich               41     54     52     54     63     53     58      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      2      2      3      2      2      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      8      5      6      7      5      6      3
DK/NA                 4      5      5      6      4      6      5      3
 
 
5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Clinton              45%    11%    88%    40%    36%    53%    51%    42%
Trump                42     74      7     40     49     35     36     44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      1      5      4      3      4      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      7      3      9      6      6      6      6
DK/NA                 4      4      2      5      4      4      4      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Clinton              58%    40%    44%    39%    29%    47%    38%    89%
Trump                29     47     44     45     57     39     48      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       6      3      3      2      3      3      3      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      7      5      7      7      7      7      1
DK/NA                 1      3      4      7      4      4      4      3
 
 
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Sanders              46%    11%    85%    48%    41%    51%    53%    44%
Cruz                 38     74      6     30     43     34     36     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      1      4      4      2      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      7      7      5     10      7      7      6      8
DK/NA                 5      4      3      8      4      6      3      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Sanders              63%    45%    44%    37%    36%    46%    41%    83%
Cruz                 29     37     41     44     50     38     43      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      3      3      3      3      3      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2     10      7     10      8      8      8      4
DK/NA                 3      6      5      7      4      6      5      4
 
 
7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Sanders              40%     9%    79%    35%    36%    43%    40%    40%
Kasich               46     80     13     43     48     43     51     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      1      3      3      2      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      4      4      9      7      4      2      7
DK/NA                 6      4      4     10      5      7      5      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Sanders              63%    39%    34%    29%    30%    37%    33%    82%
Kasich               27     44     50     56     56     50     52      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      2      1      3      2      2      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      7      6      7      7      5      6      4
DK/NA                 5      6      8      5      5      7      6      4
 
 
8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Sanders              48%    14%    87%    49%    42%    54%    54%    46%
Trump                40     72      7     35     46     33     35     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      1      3      3      2      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      6      3      7      5      5      6      5
DK/NA                 4      5      2      6      4      5      3      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Sanders              68%    46%    44%    39%    35%    49%    42%    88%
Trump                24     44     43     44     54     38     45      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      2      2      2      2      3      2      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      5      6      7      6      6      6      4
DK/NA                 1      3      5      7      4      5      5      2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            35%     8%    73%    27%    28%    42%    42%    32%
Unfavorable          59     89     21     65     67     51     55     60
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      4      5      4      4      2      5
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      1      3      1      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            41%    28%    38%    35%    24%    35%    30%    67%
Unfavorable          52     66     57     57     73     57     65     21
Hvn't hrd enough      6      4      3      3      2      4      3     10
REFUSED               2      1      2      4      1      4      2      2
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            49%    22%    78%    53%    47%    51%    56%    46%
Unfavorable          37     64     10     34     42     33     36     38
Hvn't hrd enough     12     12     10     13     10     14      7     15
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      1      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            67%    49%    42%    41%    43%    46%    45%    78%
Unfavorable          20     40     42     43     47     38     42      3
Hvn't hrd enough     13     11     14     12      8     14     11     17
REFUSED               1      -      2      4      2      2      2      1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            32%    54%    13%    27%    35%    30%    28%    34%
Unfavorable          50     29     67     57     53     46     63     44
Hvn't hrd enough     17     15     18     16     11     22      7     21
REFUSED               2      2      2      -      1      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            27%    30%    34%    36%    38%    31%    35%    15%
Unfavorable          52     54     48     44     52     46     49     54
Hvn't hrd enough     21     16     16     16      9     20     15     28
REFUSED               -      1      2      3      1      2      2      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            49%    61%    42%    46%    52%    47%    62%    44%
Unfavorable          17     13     19     19     19     14     17     17
Hvn't hrd enough     33     25     38     35     27     38     20     39
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            31%    48%    53%    58%    57%    49%    53%    25%
Unfavorable          20     18     16     14     19     14     16     21
Hvn't hrd enough     48     35     29     26     23     35     29     54
REFUSED               -      -      2      2      1      1      1      -
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            32%    54%     8%    32%    40%    25%    25%    36%
Unfavorable          60     36     89     61     53     68     70     56
Hvn't hrd enough      4      6      2      4      5      4      3      5
REFUSED               3      4      1      3      2      4      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            23%    35%    36%    34%    45%    28%    36%     5%
Unfavorable          72     58     58     54     48     64     56     90
Hvn't hrd enough      4      5      4      5      5      4      4      4
REFUSED               1      2      2      6      2      4      3      -
 
 

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