June 21, 2016 - Clinton Inches Up In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • FLORIDA: Clinton 47 - Trump 39
  • OHIO: Clinton 40 - Trump 40
  • PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 42 - Trump 41

Democrat Hillary Clinton opens an 8-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, the largest of the presidential swing states, and erases a small Trump lead to create a dead heat in Ohio, while Pennsylvania remains too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a long shot for the Democratic presidential nomination, runs markedly better than Clinton in head-to-head matchups with Trump in Ohio and Pennsylvania, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

The presidential matchups show:
  • Florida - Clinton over Trump 47 - 39 percent, compared to 43 - 42 percent May 10. Sanders tops Trump 45 - 39 percent.
  • Ohio - Clinton and Trump tied 40 - 40 percent, compared to a small 43 - 39 percent Trump lead May 10. Sanders leads Trump 48 - 38 percent.
  • Pennsylvania - Clinton at 42 percent to Trump's 41 percent, virtually unchanged from the 43 - 42 percent lean to Clinton May 10. Sanders tops Trump 47 - 40 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
  • Florida - Clinton tops Trump 42 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
  • Ohio - Clinton at 38 percent, with Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at 3 percent;
  • Pennsylvania - Clinton at 39 percent to Trump's 36 percent, with 9 percent for Johnson and 4 percent for Stein.
"Secretary Hillary Clinton is pulling ahead in Florida, but the pictures in Ohio and Pennsylvania are much less clear," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"The at-times bitter verbal battles between Trump and some Republicans leaders is showing in these numbers. In these three key states, Clinton is doing better, and in the case of Florida much better, among Democrats than Trump is among Republicans. Traditionally GOP presidential candidates score better on this party loyalty test."

By wide margins, voters in each state say Clinton is better prepared than Trump to be president; that she is more intelligent than Trump and that she has higher moral standards.

Voters are divided on whether Trump is more honest and trustworthy than Clinton and voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania find him more inspiring.

Trump's comments about a judge of Mexican descent are racist, voters in each state say by wide margins.

Florida

Trump's support among men in Florida drops from 49 - 36 percent May 10 to 45 - 41 percent today. Clinton's lead among women grows from 48 - 35 percent in May to 52 - 34 percent today. Republicans back Trump 82 - 8 percent, while Clinton leads 93 - 2 among Democrats and 44 - 35 percent among independent voters. White voters back Trump 51 - 36 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 72 - 15 percent.

Florida voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 39 - 53 percent for her and 33 - 61 percent for him.

Comparing the candidates' character traits, voters say:
  • 60 - 31 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
  • 47 - 36 percent that she has higher moral standards;
  • 53 - 33 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
  • 43 percent say Trump is more honest and trustworthy and 40 percent trust Clinton;
  • 44 percent that Clinton is more inspiring, with 42 percent for Trump;
  • 46 percent that Trump is a stronger leader, with 45 percent for Clinton.
Trump would be better creating jobs, Florida voters say 49 - 41 percent. Clinton would be better on immigration, voters say 50 - 43 percent. Trump would be more effective against ISIS, voters say 48 - 42 percent, but Clinton would be better responding to an international crisis, voters say 54 - 39 percent.

Florida voters say 48 - 40 percent they would rather invite Trump to their backyard barbecue, but say 49 - 40 percent they would rather turn to Clinton during a personal crisis.

"Of the three swing states, Florida has the largest number of electoral votes. In fact, it has the most of any of the roughly dozen states around the country considered to be in play. It is Hillary Clinton's best state and perhaps Donald Trump's toughest lift. One reason might be Florida has a larger Hispanic population than the other two states, and Trump has clashed with Hispanic leaders over some of his remarks," Brown said.

Ohio

Ohio women are moving to Clinton in greater numbers, from 43 - 36 percent over Trump May 10 to 48 - 31 percent today. There is little change in Trump's support among men, 51 - 36 percent in May and 49 - 32 percent today. He leads 76 - 6 percent among Republicans and 41 - 32 percent among independent voters, while Democrats back Clinton 80 - 9 percent.

White voters back Trump 46 - 32 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 78 - 8 percent.

Ohio voters give Clinton a negative 35 - 59 percent favorability rating, and give Trump a negative 32 - 59 percent.

Comparing the candidates' character traits, voters say:
  • 57 - 33 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
  • 45 - 37 percent that she has higher moral standards;
  • 53 - 36 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
  • 44 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy;
  • 46 - 40 percent that Trump is more inspiring;
  • 49 - 41 percent that Trump is a stronger leader.
Trump would be better creating jobs, Ohio voters say 52 - 39 percent. Clinton would be better on immigration, voters say 50 - 43 percent. Trump would be more effective against ISIS, voters say 54 - 38 percent, but Clinton would be better responding to an international crisis, voters say 52 - 41 percent.

Ohio voters say 50 - 36 percent they would rather invite Trump to their backyard barbecue, but say 45 - 42 percent they would rather turn to Clinton during a personal crisis.

"One reason why Trump may be doing better in Ohio, and for that matter in Pennsylvania as well, is that both states have small Hispanic populations, compared to Florida. Given Trump's comments on immigration and descendants of immigrants, the much larger Hispanic population in Florida is obviously a boost there for Hillary Clinton," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

The gender gap remains largely unchanged in Pennsylvania, where Clinton leads 50 - 34 percent among women, while Trump leads 50 - 33 percent among men. He leads 78 - 7 percent among Republicans and 42 - 34 percent among independent voters. Clinton takes Democrats 82 - 7 percent. White voters go Republican 47 - 38 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 66 - 15 percent.

Keystone State voters give Clinton a negative 41 - 56 percent favorability rating, and give Trump a negative 35 - 60 percent.

Comparing the candidates' character traits, voters say:
  • 59 - 32 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
  • 47 - 37 percent that she has higher moral standards;
  • 54 - 33 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
  • 44 - 40 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy;
  • 45 - 41 percent that Trump is more inspiring;
  • 47 percent that Trump is a stronger leader and 46 percent that Clinton is stronger.
Trump would be better creating jobs, Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 39 percent. Clinton would be better on immigration, voters say 51 - 44 percent. Trump would be more effective against ISIS, voters say 51 - 42 percent, but Clinton would be better responding to an international crisis, voters say 54 - 38 percent.

By 52 - 36 percent, Pennsylvania voters would rather invite Trump to their barbecue, but 45 percent would turn to Clinton in a personal crisis and 44 percent would turn to Trump.

"In the Clinton-Trump acid test, Pennsylvania voters say Hillary Clinton is smarter, more morally grounded and better equipped to handle the 'what ifs,' the use of nuclear weapons and the management of an international crisis," said Tim Malloy, assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Sure Trump would be more fun at a barbecue and might crush ISIS more efficiently, but given it's a tossup on leadership, in the broad overview, Trump comes up short."

From June 8 - 19 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 975 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points;
  • 971 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points;
  • 950 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiac poll. Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              47%    40%    42%
Trump                39     40     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      6      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      8      7
DK/NA                 6      6      7
 
 
2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Sanders              45%    48%    47%
Trump                39     38     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      4      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      5      4
DK/NA                 6      6      5
 
 
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              42%    38%    39%
Trump                36     36     36
Johnson               7      8      9
Stein                 3      3      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      6      3
DK/NA                 6      7      8
 
 
4. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
More                 34%    30%    34%
Less                 37     43     36
About the same       27     25     29
DK/NA                 2      1      1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Strongly favorable   23%    20%    21%
Smwht favorable      10     12     14
Smwht unfavorable     9      9     10
Strongly unfavorable 52     50     50
Hvn't hrd enough      4      5      3
REFUSED/DK/NA         3      4      2
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Strongly favorable   23%    20%    22%
Smwht favorable      16     15     19
Smwht unfavorable     8     10      8
Strongly unfavorable 45     49     48
Hvn't hrd enough      5      4      2
REFUSED/DK/NA         3      1      2
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Strongly favorable   22%    23%    25%
Smwht favorable      22     20     24
Smwht unfavorable    10     10     11
Strongly unfavorable 28     30     26
Hvn't hrd enough     15     15     12
REFUSED/DK/NA         4      2      2
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Jill Stein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Strongly favorable    1%     1%     2%
Smwht favorable       3      2      5
Smwht unfavorable     3      3      3
Strongly unfavorable  4      4      5
Hvn't hrd enough     87     89     86
REFUSED/DK/NA         2      1      -
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Gary Johnson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Strongly favorable    2%     3%     3%
Smwht favorable      10      6      6
Smwht unfavorable     5      4      5
Strongly unfavorable  7      6      6
Hvn't hrd enough     74     81     80
REFUSED/DK/NA         3      1      1
 
 
15. If a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate endorses Donald Trump for President, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
More likely          17%    11%    12%
Less likely          38     32     36
No difference        43     56     51
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
16. If a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate endorses Hillary Clinton for President, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
More likely          20%    13%    14%
Less likely          30     28     28
No difference        47     58     57
DK/NA                 2      -      1
 
 
17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job creating jobs: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              41%    39%    39%
Trump                49     52     52
DK/NA                 9      9      9
 
 
18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling immigration issues: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              50%    50%    51%
Trump                43     43     44
DK/NA                 6      7      5
 
 
19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would be most effective against ISIS: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              42%    38%    42%
Trump                48     54     51
DK/NA                 9      8      8
 
 
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job responding to an international crisis: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              54%    52%    54%
Trump                39     41     38
DK/NA                 7      6      8
 
 
21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who would you trust more to make the right decision about sending American troops to fight overseas: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              49%    45%    47%
Trump                42     44     45
DK/NA                10     11      8
 
 
22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who would you trust more to make the right decisions about the use of nuclear weapons: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              56%    55%    55%
Trump                34     34     34
DK/NA                10     11     11
 
 
23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job getting things done in Washington: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              51%    46%    47%
Trump                40     46     45
DK/NA                 9      9      8
 
 
24. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think is more inspiring: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              44%    40%    41%
Trump                42     46     45
DK/NA                14     14     14
 
 
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think is more honest and trustworthy: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              40%    37%    40%
Trump                43     44     44
DK/NA                17     19     16
 
 
26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think is a stronger leader: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              45%    41%    46%
Trump                46     49     47
DK/NA                 8     10      7
 
 
27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think is better prepared to be President: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              60%    57%    59%
Trump                31     33     32
DK/NA                 8      9      9
 
 
28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has higher moral standards: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              47%    45%    47%
Trump                36     37     37
DK/NA                17     18     16
 
 
29. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think is more intelligent: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              53%    53%    54%
Trump                33     36     33
DK/NA                13     11     13
 
 
30. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who would you rather watch on TV for the next four years: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              43%    41%    42%
Trump                43     46     46
DK/NA                14     13     12
 
 
31. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who would you rather invite to your backyard barbecue: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              40%    36%    36%
Trump                48     50     52
DK/NA                12     14     12
 
 
32. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who would you rather come to your aid during a personal crisis: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Clinton              49%    45%    45%
Trump                40     42     44
DK/NA                12     13     11
 
 
33. Donald Trump has said he would like to build a wall along the Mexican border and have Mexico pay for it. If elected President, do you believe that he would try to do this, or not? (If yes) Do you think he would be able to do this, or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes/Try and able     30%    21%    23%
Yes/Try and not able 37     42     44
No/Not try           26     27     26
DK/NA                 7     10      7
 
 
34. Hillary Clinton has said she would like to rein in the power of Wall Street. If elected President, do you believe that she will try to do this, or not? (If yes) Do you think she would be able to do this, or not?
                     FL     OH     PA
 
Yes/Try and able     17%    17%    17%
Yes/Try and not able 20     21     19
No/Not try           49     51     54
DK/NA                14     12     11
 
 
35. As you may know, Donald Trump has asserted that an American-born judge overseeing a fraud case against Trump University should recuse himself because of his Mexican heritage. Do you think Trump's assertion is racist or is not racist?