September 22, 2016 - Trump Narrows Gap In Colorado, Virginia, Pulls Ahead In Georgia, Iowa, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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  • COLORADO: Clinton 44 - Trump 42, Johnson 10
  • GEORGIA: Trump 47 - Clinton 40, Johnson 9
  • IOWA: Trump 44 - Clinton 37, Johnson 10
  • VIRGINIA: Clinton 45 - Trump 39, Johnson 8

Republican Donald Trump narrows the gap with Democrat Hillary Clinton in Colorado and Virginia and leads in Iowa and Georgia, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

There are gender gaps and huge racial gaps, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Four-way races which list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates, except Georgia where Green Party candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot, show:
  • Colorado: Clinton with 44 percent to Trump's 42 percent, with 10 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein. Clinton topped Trump 41 - 33 percent in the four-way race in an August 17 Quinnipiac University poll;
  • Georgia: Trump leads Clinton 47 - 40 percent, with 9 percent for Johnson;
  • Iowa: Trump tops Clinton 44 - 37 percent, with 10 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein. Clinton had 41 percent to Trump's 39 percent last month;
  • Virginia: Clinton leads Trump 45 - 39 percent, with 8 percent for Johnson and 1
percent for Stein. Clinton was ahead 45 - 34 percent August 17.

Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:
  • Colorado: Clinton and Trump tied 47 - 47 percent;
  • Georgia: Trump leads Clinton 50 - 44 percent;
  • Iowa: Trump tops Clinton 50 - 44 percent;
  • Virginia: Clinton leads Trump 50 - 43 percent.
"Iowa, Virginia and Colorado are a metaphor for what is happening in the presidential race," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll

"When Quinnipiac University polled last in those states on August 17, Secretary Hillary Clinton was riding the post-convention wave that gave her double-digit leads in many polls."

"Now, the race has tightened considerably nationally and that new reality is reflected by these numbers that show the two candidates much closer," Brown added. "Leads for Donald Trump in Georgia and Iowa and a virtual tie in Colorado plus a 6-point lead for Clinton in Virginia represent a major improvement overall for him in these states.

"Another key to how the race has changed is the measure of each candidates' ability to keep their respective bases in line. Throughout the campaign, Clinton has been able to get more Democrat support than Trump's Republican support. That has now changed a bit and in Georgia and Iowa, Trump does better on that score. Worth noting is that Trump has an edge among independent voters, often the key swing constituency, in all four of these states."

Colorado

In the four-way race, there is a small gender gap among Colorado likely voters as men go 43 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Clinton. Women go 47 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Trump. The Republican leads 46 - 40 percent among white voters, as the Democrat leads 62 - 24 percent among non-white voters.

Trump takes Republicans 84 - 7 percent and independent voters 42 - 33 percent, with 16 percent for Johnson. Clinton takes Democrats 93 - 2 percent.

"Once a red state, headed towards blue, you can't get more purple than a tie and that's where Colorado is as Election Day approaches," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Georgia

Hillary Clinton's 4-percentage point edge among Georgia women likely voters can't overcome Trump's 21-point lead among men. Men go Republican 55 - 34 percent, as women go Democratic 45 - 41 percent.

The racial gap is huge among Georgia likely voters: White voters back Trump 72 - 16 percent, while non-white voters back Clinton 73 - 14 percent.

Trump gets 43 percent of independent voters, with 40 percent for Clinton and 14 percent for Johnson. Republicans back Trump 90 - 3 percent, as Democrats back Clinton 86 - 4 percent.

"Georgia is on Hillary Clinton's mind as her razor-thin edge among women is eclipsed by Donald Trump's huge lead with men," Malloy said.

Iowa

Trump also wins the gender battle among Iowa likely voters, with a 52 - 26 percent lead among men, to Clinton's 47 - 37 percent lead among women.

Johnson gets his biggest tally among Iowa independent voters, 19 percent, with 38 percent for Trump and 33 percent for Clinton. Republicans back Trump 86 - 4 percent, while Democrats back Clinton 83 - 5 percent.

"Donald Trump is running better in Iowa than other Midwestern states and that shows in his lead in this poll. He has a slight lead among independent voters, but his margin there may be heavily tied to demographics. Iowa, with a voting bloc that is overwhelmingly white, lacks the kind of large minority population that has fueled Hillary Clinton's lead in some of the large industrial states," Brown said.

Virginia

Virginia women and non-white likely voters push Clinton to her only lead in these four swing states. She leads 50 - 36 percent among women, while men back Trump 43 - 39 percent. Non-white voters go Democratic 70 - 15 percent, as white voters go Republican 51 - 32 percent.

Clinton takes Democrats 90 - 2 percent. Trump leads 78 - 7 percent among Republicans and 44 - 34 percent among independent voters, with 12 percent for Johnson.

"Virginia is a good example of how Hillary Clinton's multi-racial coalition is operating. She is ahead 45 - 39 percent in Virginia overall. She only gets 32 percent of white voters, including 23 percent of white men, but her 70 percent of non-white voters puts her ahead," Brown said.

From September 13 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 644 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points;
  • 638 Georgia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points;
  • 612 Iowa likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
  • 659 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.qu.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll

1. If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats, Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld the Libertarians, and Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka the Green party candidates, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine, Trump and Pence, Johnson and Weld, or Stein and Baraka? (Note: Stein and Baraka not included in Georgia)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     CO     GA     IA     VA
 
Clinton and Kaine    44%    40%    37%    45%
Trump and Pence      42     47     44     39
Johnson and Weld     10      9     10      8
Stein and Baraka      2     na      2      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      4      5      6
 
 
2. If the only candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats and Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine or Trump and Pence?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........
                     CO     GA     IA     VA
 
Clinton and Kaine    47%    44%    44%    50%
Trump and Pence      47     50     50     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      -
DK/NA                 4      5      6      7
 
*Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Clinton or Trump in Q1; Respondents who named Clinton or Trump in Q1 assigned to initial preference


Additional info by state:
Colorado: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Georgia: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Iowa: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Virginia: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables