October 5, 2016 - Democrats Gain On Republicans In Florida, North Carolina, But Lose Ground In Ohio, Pennsylvania Senate Races, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
PDF format
Additional Information

  • Florida: Rubio 48 - Murphy 44
  • North Carolina: Ross 46 - Burr 46
  • Ohio: Portman 55 - Strickland 38
  • Pennsylvania: Toomey 50 - McGinty 42

Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio is on the plus side of a too-close-to-call reelection battle in Florida, while GOP incumbent Senators in Ohio and Pennsylvania enjoy wider leads, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

In North Carolina, the U.S. Senate race is locked in a dead heat while the governor's race is too close to call, with State Attorney General Roy Cooper, the Democratic challenger, at 48 percent and Republican incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory at 46 percent. This compares to a 51 - 44 percent Cooper lead in a September 9 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

U.S. Senate matchups show:
  • Florida: Rubio at 48 percent with Murphy at 44 percent, compared to a 50 - 43 percent Rubio lead September 9;
  • North Carolina: Republican incumbent Sen. Richard Burr and Democratic challenger Deborah Ross tied 46 - 46 percent, compared to a 49 - 43 percent Burr lead September 9;
  • Ohio: GOP incumbent Sen. Rob Portman leads former Gov. Ted Strickland, his Democratic challenger, 55 - 38 percent, up from a 51 - 40 percent Portman lead last month;
  • Pennsylvania: Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey leads Democratic challenger Katie McGinty 50 - 42 percent, compared to September 9, when he had 46 percent to McGinty's 45 percent.
"It looks like the battle to control the U.S. Senate will go down to the campaign's final days. The races in North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania could decide the matter," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Florida

The Florida U.S. Senate race has a yawning gender gap among likely voters as men back Sen. Marco Rubio 59 - 30 percent, while women back U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy 57 - 38 percent. Rubio leads 86 - 6 percent among Republicans and 52 - 41 percent among independent voters. Murphy takes Democrats 84 - 9 percent.

"Sen. Marco Rubio has led in the polls for reelection since he changed his mind and decided to seek a second term. But his margin over U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, the Democratic challenger, has never been large enough to make Sen. Rubio comfortable," Brown said.

North Carolina

There also is a likely voter gender gap in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race as men back Sen. Richard Burr 52 - 43 percent, while women back Democrat Deborah Ross 50 - 40 percent. Burr leads 90 - 9 percent among Republicans and 47 - 40 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Ross 91 - 5 percent.

In the governor's race, men back Gov. Pat McCrory 51 - 46 percent, while women back Attorney General Roy Cooper 51 - 42 percent. Cooper gets 85 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of independent voters, while McCrory gets 88 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of independent voters.

"North Carolina is a very evenly divided state. The presidential race, and the reelection battles of two Republican incumbents, Gov. Pat McCrory and Sen. Richard Burr, are all too close to call. This in a state that little more than a decade ago was strongly Republican," Brown said.

Ohio

Among Ohio likely voters, Sen. Rob Portman tops Gov. Ted Strickland 64 - 32 percent among men. The Democratic challenger gets no help from women, who go 48 percent for Portman and 44 percent for Strickland. Portman also leads 94 - 3 percent among Republicans and 59 - 30 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Strickland 80 - 15 percent.

"Anything can happen in politics, but it would take a collapse of historic proportions for Sen. Rob Portman to lose his reelection bid to former Gov. Ted Strickland. The first term incumbent is 17 points ahead and the only ones still holding out hope for Strickland are his family members," Brown said.

Pennsylvania

In the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, Democratic challenger Katie McGinty suffers from lackluster support among women likely voters and members of her own party. Women are divided with 45 percent for Sen. Pat Toomey and 44 percent for Katie McGinty. Men back the Republican 56 - 40 percent. Toomey leads 87 - 9 percent among Republicans, while McGinty leads only 71 - 21 percent among Democrats. Independent voters go 47 percent for Toomey and 43 percent for McGinty.

"The Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat the GOP can ill afford to lose looks a little safer. Some breathing room for incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey as Democrat Katie McGinty sees underwhelming support from women and members of her own party," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

From September 27 - October 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
  • 545 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points;
  • 507 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points;
  • 497 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points;
  • 535 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.qu.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll

4a. (FL only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Patrick Murphy the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Murphy or Rubio?
                     FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Murphy               44%     6%    84%    41%    30%    57%    38%    36%
Rubio                48     86      9     52     59     38     54     61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      8      6      7     11      6      8      4
 
 
4b. (NC only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Deborah Ross the Democrat and Richard Burr the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Ross or Burr?
                     NORTH CAROLINA LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Ross                 46%     9%    91%    40%    43%    50%    47%    24%
Burr                 46     90      5     47     52     40     50     68
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      1      -      1
DK/NA                 7      1      4     12      4     10      2      7
 
 
4c. (OH only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Strickland or Portman?
                     OHIO LIKELY VOTERS...................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Strickland           38%     3%    80%    30%    32%    44%    38%    32%
Portman              55     94     15     59     64     48     59     62
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      2      5     11      4      9      3      6
 
 
4d. (PA only) If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Katie McGinty the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward McGinty or Toomey?
                     PENNSYLVANIA LIKELY VOTERS...........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
McGinty              42%     9%    71%    43%    40%    44%    46%    30%
Toomey               50     87     21     47     56     45     50     60
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      -      -      1      1
DK/NA                 7      3      8     10      4     10      3      9
 
 
5. (NC only) If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Roy Cooper the Democrat and Pat McCrory the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Cooper or McCrory?
                     NORTH CAROLINA LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cooper               48%    12%    85%    48%    46%    51%    53%    26%
McCrory              46     88     11     45     51     42     46     70
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -      -      1
DK/NA                 5      1      4      7      3      7      1      3
 
 
Additional info by state:
Florida: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
North Carolina: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Ohio: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables
Pennsylvania: Sample and Methodology detail Trend Tables