Florida And Ohio: Biden Has The Edge Over Trump, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Nationally, Biden Maintains A Strong Lead
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FLORIDA: Biden 47%, Trump 42%
OHIO: Biden 47%, Trump 43%
NATIONAL: Biden 50%, Trump 39%
On the eve of Election Day 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden has narrow leads over President Donald Trump in Florida and Ohio, according to the final Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls conducted before the election.
In a national poll, Biden holds an 11-point lead over Trump among likely voters, largely unchanged from the 10-point leads he has held since September, nationally.
"Will it be a tidy game, set, match on Tuesday night? Or should we brace for an agonizing and ugly overtime, further enflaming a divided and troubled country? The Biden numbers lean toward the first scenario, but 2016 lurks in the memory of Democrats," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
FLORIDA
In Florida, 47 percent of likely voters support Biden and 42 percent support Trump.
Likely voters have a favorable view of Biden, 48 - 43 percent, while they have an unfavorable view of Trump, 50 - 42 percent.
"Florida, Florida, Florida. There is some confidence that the votes will be counted in time to declare a winner Tuesday night. As the hottest summer in years lingers, both sides sweat out a final tally that, if it goes Biden's way, could make the rest of the vote count all but irrelevant," added Malloy.
OHIO
In Ohio, 47 percent of likely voters support Biden and 43 percent support Trump.
Among likely voters, 47 percent view Biden favorably and 46 percent view him unfavorably. Forty-two percent of likely voters view Trump favorably and 51 percent view him unfavorably.
"In a state that's picked the winner of every presidential race since 1964, Ohio is a close race on the eve of Election Day 2020. Donald Trump easily won the state in 2016, but is losing some ground in the final stretch to Joe Biden," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.
NATIONAL
Biden leads Trump 50 - 39 percent in today's national poll of likely voters.
Across the country, only 27 percent of likely voters say they will cast their ballot in person on Election Day, while 37 percent say they will or already have cast their vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 35 percent say they will vote or have already voted at an early voting location.
Forty-nine percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 42 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Likely voters have a negative opinion of Trump, as 54 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion and 39 percent say they have a favorable one.
From October 28th - November 1st:
- 1,657 likely voters in Florida were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points;
- 1,440 likely voters in Ohio were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points;
- 1,516 likely voters nationwide were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question Florida
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 47% 7% 91% 50% 39% 55% 50% 35% Trump 42 90 3 34 50 35 43 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 9 3 6 15 10 9 6 8 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 51% 46% 45% 49% 31% 48% 41% 85% 47% Trump 38 41 48 42 59 44 51 4 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 8 12 6 8 8 7 7 12 8 VOTING METHOD Q2... In Mail/ Early Person Absnt VtLoc Biden 21% 61% 46% Trump 69 26 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 DK/NA 9 12 7 -
Question 2. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No In person 16% 22% 8% 19% 19% 14% 12% 20% Mail/Absentee ballot 36 25 47 36 32 39 45 35 Early voting loc 47 52 44 45 48 47 43 44 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp In person 22% 22% 16% 9% 20% 15% 17% 12% 15% Mail/Absentee ballot 31 24 28 55 34 43 39 38 28 Early voting loc 48 53 56 35 45 42 43 50 57 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA - - - 1 - 1 1 - - -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 48% 9% 92% 49% 39% 55% 51% 36% Unfavorable 43 86 3 37 50 36 43 57 Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 3 4 6 3 2 3 REFUSED 5 2 2 10 5 6 5 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 48% 47% 47% 51% 32% 49% 42% 86% 47% Unfavorable 38 41 47 44 60 45 52 5 39 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 2 3 3 2 3 4 6 REFUSED 7 7 4 3 4 4 4 4 7 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 42% 89% 4% 34% 50% 36% 43% 56% Unfavorable 50 8 92 53 43 56 52 38 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 REFUSED 6 1 2 12 5 7 4 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 34% 40% 48% 45% 60% 44% 51% 6% 40% Unfavorable 57 49 46 50 35 50 43 87 49 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 REFUSED 5 10 4 3 4 5 4 4 7 -
Question Ohio
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
OHIO LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 47% 9% 94% 43% 36% 57% 57% 39% Trump 43 87 3 41 54 33 36 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 8 3 1 12 7 8 6 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Biden 52% 44% 46% 48% 34% 55% 45% 75% Trump 37 46 48 44 59 38 48 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 1 1 2 - 1 5 DK/NA 7 8 5 7 6 7 6 11 VOTING METHOD Q2... In Mail/ Early Person Absnt VtLoc Biden 28% 64% 52% Trump 62 26 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 DK/NA 7 7 9 -
Question 2. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
OHIO LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No In person 36% 47% 20% 40% 43% 31% 31% 39% Mail/Absentee ballot 33 26 49 30 27 39 39 32 Early voting loc 30 26 31 29 30 29 30 29 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk In person 40% 48% 35% 26% 42% 31% 36% 31% Mail/Absentee ballot 30 25 31 45 29 40 34 29 Early voting loc 29 27 34 28 29 29 29 39 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 1 1 - - - - - 1 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
OHIO LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 47% 11% 92% 44% 36% 56% 58% 38% Unfavorable 46 86 6 45 57 36 38 57 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 2 7 3 4 2 3 REFUSED 3 2 - 4 3 3 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 43% 47% 47% 49% 35% 53% 44% 71% Unfavorable 48 46 47 47 60 42 51 16 Hvn't hrd enough 6 3 3 2 3 3 3 10 REFUSED 3 4 2 2 2 3 2 4 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
OHIO LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 42% 85% 4% 36% 52% 32% 35% 53% Unfavorable 51 12 94 53 41 60 61 42 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 1 6 3 3 2 3 REFUSED 4 1 2 4 4 4 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 32% 43% 48% 47% 58% 38% 47% 9% Unfavorable 60 50 48 49 38 57 48 82 Hvn't hrd enough 5 2 2 2 2 3 2 4 REFUSED 3 5 3 2 2 2 2 5 -
Question National
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 50% 8% 94% 49% 43% 57% 61% 39% Trump 39 88 4 37 48 32 33 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 9 4 1 10 7 9 6 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 55% 47% 51% 54% 41% 52% 47% 81% 50% Trump 32 46 42 39 52 42 47 6 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 1 1 1 2 - 1 1 6 DK/NA 9 6 6 5 6 6 6 12 8 VOTING METHOD Q2... In Mail/ Early Person Absnt VtLoc Biden 32% 66% 49% Trump 59 26 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 DK/NA 8 6 10 -
Question 2. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No In person 27% 35% 18% 25% 31% 23% 26% 31% Mail/Absentee ballot 37 31 50 33 34 40 44 38 Early voting loc 35 33 31 42 34 35 30 29 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp In person 28% 36% 24% 20% 33% 26% 30% 19% 23% Mail/Absentee ballot 42 25 36 46 35 45 40 27 34 Early voting loc 29 38 38 32 32 28 30 53 44 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 - -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 49% 10% 92% 46% 41% 56% 61% 39% Unfavorable 42 87 5 44 51 35 34 55 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 2 5 3 4 2 2 REFUSED 5 2 1 4 5 5 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 47% 45% 53% 56% 39% 52% 46% 76% 50% Unfavorable 41 48 43 41 55 42 48 12 41 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 1 2 2 2 2 10 4 REFUSED 5 3 3 2 4 4 4 2 6 -
Question 3a. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If favorable/unfavorable q3) Do you have a strongly or somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?
NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Strongly favorable 30% 4% 62% 24% 22% 37% 38% 24% Smwht favorable 19 6 29 21 19 18 22 14 Smwht unfavorable 7 9 1 13 9 5 8 8 Strongly unfavorable 35 77 4 32 41 29 26 46 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 2 5 3 4 2 2 REFUSED 6 3 2 5 5 6 3 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Strongly favorable 11% 26% 37% 46% 20% 37% 29% 44% 32% Smwht favorable 36 17 16 10 19 15 17 32 18 Smwht unfavorable 17 7 5 2 10 6 8 4 8 Strongly unfavorable 25 41 38 37 44 35 39 7 33 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 1 2 2 2 2 10 4 REFUSED 5 3 3 5 4 5 5 3 6 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 39% 87% 4% 36% 46% 32% 32% 53% Unfavorable 54 12 93 55 46 61 64 43 Hvn't hrd enough 3 - 1 4 4 1 2 1 REFUSED 5 1 2 5 4 5 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 31% 44% 41% 40% 50% 41% 45% 8% 34% Unfavorable 61 49 54 57 44 56 50 87 53 Hvn't hrd enough 2 4 2 2 2 - 1 4 5 REFUSED 6 2 3 1 4 2 3 2 8 -
Question 4a. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If favorable/unfavorable q4) Do you have a strongly or somewhat favorable/unfavorable opinion?
NATIONAL LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Strongly favorable 30% 74% 2% 24% 35% 25% 23% 44% Smwht favorable 9 13 2 11 11 7 9 8 Smwht unfavorable 5 4 2 8 4 5 3 3 Strongly unfavorable 48 7 90 46 41 55 61 40 Hvn't hrd enough 3 - 1 4 4 1 2 1 REFUSED 6 1 3 6 5 6 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Strongly favorable 18% 31% 34% 37% 40% 34% 37% 5% 25% Smwht favorable 13 12 7 3 9 7 8 3 9 Smwht unfavorable 8 5 3 3 4 2 3 11 8 Strongly unfavorable 52 44 50 51 40 53 47 74 44 Hvn't hrd enough 2 4 2 2 2 - 1 4 5 REFUSED 6 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 10