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Florida And Ohio: Biden Has The Edge Over Trump, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Nationally, Biden Maintains A Strong Lead

FLORIDA: Biden 47%, Trump 42%

OHIO: Biden 47%, Trump 43%

NATIONAL: Biden 50%, Trump 39%

On the eve of Election Day 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden has narrow leads over President Donald Trump in Florida and Ohio, according to the final Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls conducted before the election.

In a national poll, Biden holds an 11-point lead over Trump among likely voters, largely unchanged from the 10-point leads he has held since September, nationally.

"Will it be a tidy game, set, match on Tuesday night? Or should we brace for an agonizing and ugly overtime, further enflaming a divided and troubled country? The Biden numbers lean toward the first scenario, but 2016 lurks in the memory of Democrats," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.


In Florida, 47 percent of likely voters support Biden and 42 percent support Trump.

Likely voters have a favorable view of Biden, 48 - 43 percent, while they have an unfavorable view of Trump, 50 - 42 percent.

"Florida, Florida, Florida. There is some confidence that the votes will be counted in time to declare a winner Tuesday night. As the hottest summer in years lingers, both sides sweat out a final tally that, if it goes Biden's way, could make the rest of the vote count all but irrelevant," added Malloy.


In Ohio, 47 percent of likely voters support Biden and 43 percent support Trump.

Among likely voters, 47 percent view Biden favorably and 46 percent view him unfavorably. Forty-two percent of likely voters view Trump favorably and 51 percent view him unfavorably.

"In a state that's picked the winner of every presidential race since 1964, Ohio is a close race on the eve of Election Day 2020. Donald Trump easily won the state in 2016, but is losing some ground in the final stretch to Joe Biden," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.


Biden leads Trump 50 - 39 percent in today's national poll of likely voters.

Across the country, only 27 percent of likely voters say they will cast their ballot in person on Election Day, while 37 percent say they will or already have cast their vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 35 percent say they will vote or have already voted at an early voting location.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 42 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Likely voters have a negative opinion of Trump, as 54 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion and 39 percent say they have a favorable one.

From October 28th - November 1st:

  • 1,657 likely voters in Florida were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points;
  • 1,440 likely voters in Ohio were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points;
  • 1,516 likely voters nationwide were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

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