2024 Race: Biden-Trump Matchup Margin Razor Thin With Nearly 1 In 5 Voters Likely To Change Their Minds, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; More Than 7 In 10 Voters Plan To Watch June Debate
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As the presidential candidates prepare to debate next month for the first time in the 2024 election cycle, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are locked in a neck-and-neck race with Biden receiving 48 percent support and Trump receiving 47 percent support, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.
When independent and Green Party candidates are added to the presidential matchup, Biden receives 41 percent support, Trump receives 38 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 14 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 2 percent support.
There is no clear leader in either of these matchups as the leads are within the margin of error, making the race too close to call.
CHANGING MINDS BEFORE ELECTION
Nineteen percent of voters who chose a candidate in the matchup with third-party candidates say it is either very likely (3 percent) or somewhat likely (16 percent) that they will change their minds about their choice for president before the election, while 80 percent say it is either not so likely (12 percent) or not likely at all (68 percent) that they will change their minds before the election.
Among voters supporting Biden, 15 percent say it is either very likely (3 percent) or somewhat likely (12 percent) that they will change their minds, while 84 percent say it is either not so likely (9 percent) or not likely at all (75 percent).
Among voters supporting Trump, 8 percent say it is somewhat likely that they will change their minds, while 92 percent say it is either not so likely (13 percent) or not likely at all (79 percent).
Among voters supporting Kennedy, 52 percent say it is either very likely (11 percent) or somewhat likely (41 percent) that they will change their minds, while 46 percent say it is either not so likely (16 percent) or not likely at all (30 percent).
"Call them fair weather, call them unsure. A sizeable block of registered voters is still juggling candidates, with Kennedy voters particularly swayable and Trump voters less inclined to bail on their candidate," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
- Donald Trump: 41 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable, 4 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Joe Biden: 40 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable, 3 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: 25 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable, 30 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Cornel West: 9 percent favorable, 20 percent unfavorable, 71 percent haven't heard enough about him;
- Jill Stein: 7 percent favorable, 22 percent unfavorable, 70 percent haven't heard enough about her.
MOST URGENT ISSUE
Given a list of 11 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, the economy (28 percent) tops the list, followed by preserving democracy in the United States (21 percent) and immigration (16 percent).
BIDEN VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
Voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling six issues...
- the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine: 49 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Biden;
- preserving democracy in the United States: 50 percent say Biden, while 43 percent say Trump;
- the response to the Israel - Hamas war in Gaza: 50 percent say Trump, while 40 percent say Biden;
- immigration: 52 percent say Trump, while 41 percent say Biden;
- the economy: 54 percent say Trump, while 42 percent say Biden;
- abortion: 53 percent say Biden, while 37 percent say Trump.
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL
Voters give President Biden a negative 39 - 56 percent job approval rating, an improvement from a negative 35 - 61 percent job approval rating in Quinnipiac University's April 24 poll.
JUNE DEBATE
More than 7 in 10 voters (72 percent) think it is likely that they will watch the televised debate between President Biden and former President Trump scheduled for late June, while 27 percent of voters think it is unlikely that they will watch the debate.
"Get out the popcorn, pull up a chair, it is must see TV and if the past is any indication, the gloves will likely come off early and often," added Malloy.
TRUMP TRIAL IN NYC
More than a month after former President Trump's criminal trial began in New York City in connection with charges of falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to an adult film actress, 70 percent of voters say they are following news regarding the trial either very closely (32 percent) or somewhat closely (38 percent), while 30 percent say they are following it not too closely.
Six in 10 voters (60 percent) think the charges against Trump in this trial are either very serious (37 percent) or somewhat serious (23 percent), while 36 percent think the charges are either not too serious (11 percent) or not serious at all (25 percent).
Forty-six percent of voters believe Trump did something illegal, while 29 percent believe he did something unethical but nothing illegal, and 21 percent believe he did not do anything wrong.
Voters were asked how it would impact their vote if Trump were convicted in this case. Among Trump voters, 6 percent say if he were convicted they would be less likely to vote for him, 24 percent say they would be more likely to vote for him, and 68 percent say it would not make a difference to their vote.
"Will a conviction sink Trump? The vast majority of his supporters say it would be no big deal. But in an extremely tight race, that 6 percent could tip the balance," added Malloy.
RFK, JR.
Following reports that more than a decade ago independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. contracted a parasitic worm that ended up in his brain from which his campaign says he made a full recovery, when asked whether voters are concerned about Kennedy's fitness to serve as president, they say 65 - 30 percent that they are not concerned.
ISRAEL - HAMAS WAR IN GAZA
Voters 43 - 35 percent disapprove of the way Israel is responding to the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack. In Quinnipiac University's December 20, 2023 poll, voters were split, with 43 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving.
Voters 49 - 43 percent oppose the United States sending more military aid to Israel for their efforts in the war with Hamas.
Voters were asked whether their sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians. Forty-six percent of voters say the Israelis, 29 percent say the Palestinians, and 25 percent did not offer an opinion.
Roughly 4 out of 10 voters (38 percent) think the United States is doing too little to provide humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza, while 37 percent think the U.S. is doing about the right amount, and 13 percent think the U.S. is doing too much.
Voters 55 - 36 percent oppose the student protests being held on college and university campuses responding to Israel's actions in Gaza.
PREJUDICE AGAINST JEWISH & MUSLIM AMERICANS
Seventy-four percent of voters think prejudice against Jewish people in the United States today is either a very serious problem (35 percent) or a somewhat serious problem (39 percent), while 21 percent think it is either a not so serious problem (15 percent) or not a problem at all (6 percent).
Sixty-four percent of voters think prejudice against Muslim people in the United States today is either a very serious problem (25 percent) or a somewhat serious problem (39 percent), while 31 percent think it is either a not so serious problem (20 percent) or not a problem at all (11 percent).
UKRAINE
Nearly two-thirds of voters (65 percent) think supporting Ukraine is in the national interest of the United States, while 29 percent think it is not in the national interest of the United States.
A quarter of voters (25 percent) think the United States is doing too little to help Ukraine, 33 percent think the U.S. is doing about the right amount to help Ukraine, and 36 percent think the United States is doing too much to help Ukraine.
Thirteen percent say the United States should do more to support Ukraine, even if it means increasing the risk of the United States getting into a war with Russia; while 34 percent say the United States should do more to support Ukraine, but not if it means increasing the risk of the United States getting into a war with Russia; and 47 percent say the United States is already doing enough to support Ukraine.
1,374 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from May 16th - 20th with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 48% 6% 93% 45% 37% 58% 56% 31% Trump 47 92 6 48 57 37 41 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 2 2 1 1 2 UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 1 1 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 2 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 47% 45% 44% 55% 32% 49% 41% 72% 52% Trump 48 48 50 43 63 47 54 18 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 2 2 - 1 1 1 7 - REFUSED 1 2 1 - 2 1 1 2 1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Kennedy Biden 37% Trump 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 UNDECIDED(VOL) 4 REFUSED 3 -
Question 2. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent candidate, Cornel West running as an independent candidate, and Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 41% 6% 83% 34% 31% 50% 51% 27% Trump 38 81 4 35 45 31 34 55 Kennedy 14 11 10 21 15 13 9 12 West 2 - 1 4 3 1 1 1 Stein 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 1 1 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 REFUSED 1 - - - - 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 35% 36% 39% 51% 28% 45% 37% 59% 39% Trump 35 35 43 39 54 40 47 11 33 Kennedy 22 20 10 6 12 10 11 15 24 West 3 4 1 - 2 - 1 6 2 Stein 5 1 3 1 3 1 2 5 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 2 - 1 - 1 - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 - REFUSED - 1 - 1 - 1 - 3 - CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Biden Trump Biden 85% - Trump - 81 Kennedy 11 15 West 2 1 Stein 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 REFUSED - - -
Question 2a. (If candidate chosen q2) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for president before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS............ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Tot Biden Trump Kennedy Very likely 3% 3% - 11% Somewhat likely 16 12 8 41 Not so likely 12 9 13 16 Not likely at all 68 75 79 30 DK/NA 1 1 - 2 -
Question 3. As you may know, a televised debate has been scheduled between President Biden and former President Trump in late June. Do you think that it is likely or unlikely that you will watch that debate?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Likely 72% 81% 75% 66% 71% 72% 76% 74% Unlikely 27 18 23 33 26 27 23 24 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Likely 67% 65% 74% 81% 73% 76% 75% 66% 73% Unlikely 32 34 25 15 24 23 23 33 27 DK/NA 1 1 1 4 2 1 2 2 - -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 41% 85% 5% 40% 50% 32% 34% 58% Unfavorable 54 11 94 55 46 63 64 39 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 1 3 3 4 1 1 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 2 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 40% 41% 45% 40% 56% 42% 48% 14% 39% Unfavorable 51 55 51 58 42 55 49 80 53 Hvn't hrd enough 8 3 3 - 1 2 1 4 7 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 40% 7% 83% 32% 31% 49% 47% 27% Unfavorable 54 90 13 60 64 45 50 68 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 3 4 3 3 1 2 REFUSED 3 1 2 4 2 4 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 26% 40% 41% 52% 25% 43% 35% 59% 45% Unfavorable 64 56 53 44 71 53 61 31 50 Hvn't hrd enough 6 2 2 1 2 1 2 7 4 REFUSED 4 2 4 3 1 4 3 2 1 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 25% 31% 15% 31% 28% 22% 24% 27% Unfavorable 43 30 64 36 39 46 57 40 Hvn't hrd enough 30 37 21 29 30 30 18 33 REFUSED 2 2 - 3 2 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 26% 36% 26% 14% 27% 24% 25% 22% 31% Unfavorable 26 36 49 61 44 49 47 41 28 Hvn't hrd enough 47 27 23 24 28 26 27 36 40 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 -
Question 7. Is your opinion of Cornel West favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 9% 4% 10% 11% 11% 7% 13% 4% Unfavorable 20 20 25 15 23 16 20 15 Hvn't hrd enough 71 74 63 74 64 76 66 79 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 7% 15% 8% 6% 10% 5% 8% 17% 9% Unfavorable 10 17 24 25 20 15 17 30 17 Hvn't hrd enough 83 67 67 66 69 78 74 53 74 REFUSED - - 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 -
Question 8. Is your opinion of Jill Stein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 7% 3% 7% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% Unfavorable 22 21 28 18 26 19 31 17 Hvn't hrd enough 70 75 63 73 65 74 61 76 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 12% 7% 6% 2% 9% 4% 6% 5% 9% Unfavorable 14 26 24 26 25 21 23 24 17 Hvn't hrd enough 73 67 70 70 65 74 70 68 73 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 -
Question 9. How upset would you be if the candidate you support in the 2024 presidential election lost; very upset, somewhat upset, not so upset, or not upset at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very upset 46% 52% 64% 32% 38% 54% 60% 49% Somewhat upset 25 28 21 29 26 24 24 23 Not so upset 11 9 6 17 12 10 7 12 Not upset at all 15 9 8 20 22 8 7 14 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very upset 20% 45% 56% 62% 44% 62% 54% 30% 36% Somewhat upset 31 24 25 22 27 20 23 29 33 Not so upset 28 6 7 5 11 9 10 13 14 Not upset at all 20 22 11 7 16 7 11 26 16 DK/NA 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Biden Trump Kennedy Very upset 62% 49% 13% Somewhat upset 21 27 32 Not so upset 7 11 24 Not upset at all 8 11 29 DK/NA 2 2 2 -
Question 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 39% 6% 78% 34% 29% 48% 48% 25% Disapprove 56 93 16 63 67 46 49 72 DK/NA 5 2 6 3 4 5 3 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 27% 36% 41% 51% 24% 43% 34% 54% 41% Disapprove 68 59 54 46 73 53 63 38 56 DK/NA 5 4 5 3 3 4 3 8 3 -
Question 10a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q10) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve strongly 19% 1% 45% 12% 15% 22% 26% 13% Approve smwht 20 4 33 22 14 26 22 11 Disapprove smwht 12 6 10 18 14 10 8 11 Disapprove strongly 44 87 6 45 53 36 40 61 DK/NA 5 2 6 3 4 6 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve strongly 4% 14% 23% 33% 13% 23% 18% 28% 12% Approve smwht 23 22 18 18 11 20 16 26 29 Disapprove smwht 27 14 5 4 13 7 10 21 17 Disapprove strongly 41 46 50 42 60 46 53 17 39 DK/NA 5 4 5 3 3 4 4 8 3 -
Question 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Israel is responding to the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 35% 65% 13% 30% 41% 28% 36% 45% Disapprove 43 16 68 45 40 46 52 30 DK/NA 23 18 19 25 19 26 12 25 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 21% 32% 43% 44% 50% 34% 42% 12% 30% Disapprove 49 42 40 39 35 42 39 56 47 DK/NA 30 26 17 17 15 24 20 33 22 -
Question 12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going - in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very satisfied 6% 3% 10% 4% 5% 6% 7% 5% Smwht satisfied 21 8 38 17 19 23 28 13 Smwht dissatisfied 27 24 31 27 27 28 25 21 Very dissatisfied 45 65 20 51 48 43 40 60 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very satisfied 3% 5% 6% 9% 4% 7% 6% 6% 4% Smwht satisfied 16 16 25 25 16 21 19 30 19 Smwht dissatisfied 37 28 21 25 24 22 23 35 33 Very dissatisfied 44 50 48 40 54 49 52 28 43 DK/NA - 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 -
Question 13. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going - for you today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very satisfied 27% 18% 41% 19% 25% 29% 38% 20% Smwht satisfied 39 33 41 43 39 39 36 37 Smwht dissatisfied 20 26 12 23 22 17 17 21 Very dissatisfied 13 23 4 13 12 13 9 20 DK/NA 2 - 3 2 2 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very satisfied 23% 26% 22% 39% 25% 30% 27% 37% 22% Smwht satisfied 45 34 42 35 39 35 37 44 41 Smwht dissatisfied 23 21 20 15 21 18 19 16 27 Very dissatisfied 7 18 15 11 14 16 15 3 10 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 - - -
Question 14. In your opinion, what is the most urgent issue facing the country today: the economy, climate change, health care, racial inequality, immigration, abortion, gun violence, crime, preserving democracy in the United States, the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, or the Russia-Ukraine war?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 28% 46% 12% 31% 35% 22% 22% 32% Climate change 4 1 8 4 3 6 7 3 Health care 6 1 8 5 3 8 3 4 Racial inequality 3 - 5 3 3 2 2 2 Immigration 16 30 3 17 15 16 14 23 Abortion 4 2 6 3 3 5 6 3 Gun violence 4 - 8 5 3 5 4 2 Crime 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 3 Preserving democracy 21 10 37 16 19 23 31 17 Israel-Hamas war 4 3 3 6 3 4 3 4 Russia-Ukraine war 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 - SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 1 3 3 3 3 1 2 DK/NA 3 1 3 3 2 4 2 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Economy 38% 35% 27% 15% 36% 22% 28% 30% 32% Climate change 3 7 4 4 3 6 5 3 4 Health care 8 6 5 3 3 4 4 9 9 Racial inequality 4 4 2 1 2 2 2 7 3 Immigration 11 11 19 22 21 18 19 2 19 Abortion 5 2 3 6 4 5 4 5 4 Gun violence 3 6 3 4 1 4 3 9 6 Crime 3 2 4 3 5 2 3 5 3 Preserving democracy 10 17 21 35 19 25 22 20 13 Israel-Hamas war 9 2 2 1 3 4 4 4 4 Russia-Ukraine war 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 - 3 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 4 5 2 1 2 2 5 1 DK/NA 2 1 3 4 1 5 3 1 - -
Question 15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 54% 95% 10% 58% 62% 46% 45% 68% Biden 42 4 87 35 34 49 53 28 DK/NA 4 1 3 7 4 4 2 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Trump 66% 55% 52% 45% 69% 50% 59% 33% 58% Biden 29 40 45 52 29 46 38 62 39 DK/NA 5 6 3 2 3 4 3 5 3 -
Question 16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling immigration: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 52% 93% 17% 53% 62% 43% 45% 69% Biden 41 6 77 39 33 49 51 26 DK/NA 6 2 6 7 5 7 3 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Trump 53% 52% 56% 50% 69% 51% 59% 30% 47% Biden 42 39 38 46 28 43 36 56 48 DK/NA 5 8 6 5 3 6 5 14 5 -
Question 17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - preserving democracy in the United States: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 43% 86% 4% 45% 52% 35% 37% 59% Biden 50 11 94 46 42 57 59 33 DK/NA 7 3 2 10 6 8 4 8 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Trump 41% 43% 48% 42% 59% 42% 50% 14% 47% Biden 47 51 47 54 35 51 43 76 49 DK/NA 12 6 5 3 6 7 7 10 3 -
Question 18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 49% 91% 9% 53% 58% 41% 41% 64% Biden 46 7 89 42 38 54 57 32 DK/NA 5 2 2 5 4 5 2 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Trump 61% 48% 49% 42% 64% 47% 55% 31% 52% Biden 36 45 46 54 34 49 42 62 45 DK/NA 3 6 5 4 2 4 3 7 3 -
Question 19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling abortion: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 37% 79% 4% 34% 42% 32% 33% 54% Biden 53 12 92 57 48 58 61 36 DK/NA 10 9 4 9 10 10 6 9 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Trump 34% 34% 44% 39% 51% 41% 46% 15% 28% Biden 56 55 47 54 41 51 46 72 61 DK/NA 10 11 9 7 8 8 8 14 11 -
Question 20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the response to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 50% 90% 13% 52% 59% 42% 41% 63% Biden 40 8 80 36 34 47 52 28 DK/NA 10 3 8 12 8 12 6 9 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Trump 60% 49% 51% 43% 64% 46% 54% 31% 54% Biden 28 42 39 51 30 45 38 53 39 DK/NA 12 10 10 6 6 9 8 16 7 -
Question 21. Do you think the United States is doing too much, too little, or about the right amount to help Ukraine?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Too much 36% 54% 13% 40% 43% 28% 24% 46% Too little 25 14 39 22 23 26 33 21 About right 33 27 43 31 29 37 36 28 DK/NA 6 5 5 7 4 8 7 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Too much 36% 42% 42% 25% 43% 31% 37% 35% 35% Too little 16 28 24 29 26 25 25 22 22 About right 40 22 30 42 27 36 31 35 40 DK/NA 8 7 4 5 4 8 6 8 4 -
Question 22. Which comes closer to your line of thinking: supporting Ukraine is in the national interest of the United States or supporting Ukraine is not in the national interest of the United States?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No In U.S. interest 65% 54% 83% 61% 62% 69% 78% 58% Not in U.S. interest 29 41 13 32 34 24 19 35 DK/NA 6 5 4 7 5 8 3 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp In U.S. interest 61% 60% 63% 74% 64% 68% 66% 55% 69% Not in U.S. interest 31 35 30 21 33 25 28 36 27 DK/NA 8 5 7 5 3 7 5 9 4 -
Question 23. Which comes closest to your point of view: A) The United States should do more to support Ukraine, even if it means increasing the risk of the United States getting into a war with Russia. B) The United States should do more to support Ukraine, but not if it means increasing the risk of the United States getting into a war with Russia. C) The United States is already doing enough to support Ukraine.
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No A) More support/ Even if risk war 13% 9% 19% 13% 14% 13% 18% 12% B) More support/ But not risk war 34 22 48 33 29 40 41 26 C) Already doing enough to support 47 64 30 51 52 43 38 57 DK/NA 5 6 3 4 6 4 3 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp A) More support/ Even if risk war 8% 17% 12% 16% 17% 13% 15% 9% 12% B) More support/ But not risk war 39 31 31 36 26 37 32 41 42 C) Already doing enough to support 51 48 50 43 53 47 50 48 44 DK/NA 2 5 6 6 5 3 4 3 2 -
Question 24. From what you know about the situation in the Middle East, do your sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Israelis 46% 78% 30% 37% 48% 43% 50% 58% Palestinians 29 6 44 37 26 33 28 18 DK/NA 25 16 26 26 26 24 22 24 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Israelis 28% 42% 52% 60% 58% 51% 55% 20% 39% Palestinians 47 30 25 16 21 24 22 51 36 DK/NA 25 28 23 23 21 25 23 29 25 -
Question 25. Do you support or oppose the United States sending more military aid to Israel for their efforts in the war with Hamas?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 43% 65% 30% 37% 46% 41% 43% 52% Oppose 49 30 63 56 49 50 49 39 DK/NA 7 5 7 7 6 9 8 8 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 28% 39% 53% 55% 53% 45% 49% 31% 43% Oppose 66 56 39 37 42 45 43 63 52 DK/NA 7 5 8 9 5 11 8 5 4 -
Question 26. Do you think the United States is doing too much, too little, or about the right amount to provide humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Too much 13% 23% 3% 12% 18% 9% 8% 15% Too little 38 17 58 40 35 42 47 30 About right 37 47 34 35 37 38 35 42 DK/NA 11 12 5 12 10 12 10 13 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Too much 11% 15% 17% 9% 16% 9% 12% 9% 16% Too little 47 44 33 30 34 39 37 45 39 About right 33 30 38 50 39 39 39 37 38 DK/NA 9 11 11 12 10 13 12 9 8 -
Question 27. Do you support or oppose the student protests being held on college and university campuses responding to Israel's actions in Gaza?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 36% 7% 52% 46% 29% 43% 40% 24% Oppose 55 88 39 43 61 49 51 68 DK/NA 9 5 9 12 11 8 9 8 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 57% 36% 35% 21% 28% 33% 31% 52% 48% Oppose 35 48 60 74 64 58 61 39 44 DK/NA 8 15 6 5 8 8 8 9 8 -
Question 28. How serious a problem do you think that prejudice against - Jewish people is in the United States today; a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, a not so serious problem, or not a problem at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very serious 35% 41% 36% 26% 32% 37% 44% 38% Somewhat serious 39 32 42 45 38 39 41 34 Not so serious 15 14 15 17 16 14 11 14 Not at all 6 8 5 7 8 4 3 8 DK/NA 5 5 3 5 5 5 1 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very serious 27% 28% 38% 45% 34% 45% 40% 25% 32% Somewhat serious 43 38 36 39 38 36 37 43 38 Not so serious 19 15 18 10 15 11 13 18 21 Not at all 8 9 5 3 8 4 6 7 6 DK/NA 3 10 3 3 5 3 4 7 3 -
Question 29. How serious a problem do you think that prejudice against - Muslim people is in the United States today; a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, a not so serious problem, or not a problem at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very serious 25% 10% 40% 23% 20% 30% 30% 17% Somewhat serious 39 30 44 44 37 41 41 36 Not so serious 20 36 10 20 22 19 19 26 Not at all 11 19 4 10 17 6 8 14 DK/NA 4 5 2 3 4 4 3 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very serious 36% 25% 20% 20% 15% 28% 22% 38% 30% Somewhat serious 37 38 37 44 38 38 38 39 43 Not so serious 17 20 24 21 24 22 23 13 15 Not at all 8 11 15 11 18 7 12 9 11 DK/NA 3 6 3 3 5 5 5 1 1 -
Question 30. (Intro: Regarding the New York City criminal trial against former President Donald Trump in connection to charges of falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to an adult film actress...) How closely have you been following news regarding the trial; very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very closely 32% 38% 39% 23% 33% 31% 39% 35% Somewhat closely 38 37 43 36 39 37 42 38 Not too closely 30 24 18 41 29 31 20 26 DK/NA 1 - - - - 1 - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very closely 9% 26% 41% 51% 37% 37% 37% 27% 23% Somewhat closely 38 42 36 35 38 41 40 31 40 Not too closely 53 32 22 13 24 23 23 42 36 DK/NA 1 - 1 - - - - - 1 -
Question 31. (Intro at q30) Do you think the charges of falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to an adult film actress are; very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not serious at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very serious 37% 9% 68% 34% 27% 47% 42% 26% Smwht serious 23 17 23 26 27 19 23 18 Not too serious 11 16 4 13 12 10 9 15 Not serious at all 25 53 3 24 32 19 24 38 DK/NA 4 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very serious 32% 39% 34% 45% 22% 41% 32% 59% 42% Smwht serious 36 21 19 14 21 18 20 15 31 Not too serious 14 12 8 11 15 11 13 13 8 Not serious at all 14 27 34 26 40 26 32 10 18 DK/NA 4 1 5 5 2 4 3 4 2 -
Question 32. (Intro at q30) From what you know about these charges, do you believe that: former President Trump did something illegal, he did something unethical but nothing illegal, or do you believe that former President Trump did not do anything wrong?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Illegal 46% 9% 85% 44% 38% 54% 55% 29% Unethical/Not illegl 29 40 12 34 33 25 25 34 Nothing wrong 21 45 2 19 26 16 16 32 DK/NA 4 6 1 4 3 5 4 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Illegal 44% 47% 42% 51% 33% 45% 39% 68% 51% Unethical/Not illegl 37 29 30 20 33 28 30 23 26 Nothing wrong 15 21 24 25 31 21 26 6 20 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 3 6 4 3 2 -
Question 33. (Intro at q30) If he is convicted in this case, would you be more likely to vote for Donald Trump, less likely to vote for Donald Trump, or doesn't it make a difference?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More likely 11% 22% 2% 11% 15% 8% 8% 16% Less likely 21 8 29 23 17 25 17 17 No difference 65 69 65 63 66 63 72 63 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 2 4 2 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More likely 5% 8% 17% 15% 16% 10% 13% 4% 12% Less likely 28 14 21 23 14 20 17 25 34 No difference 64 77 60 57 69 65 67 70 53 DK/NA 3 1 3 4 1 5 3 1 1 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Trump More likely 24% Less likely 6 No difference 68 DK/NA 2 -
Question 34. As you may know, it has been reported that more than a decade ago, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. contracted a parasitic worm that ended up in his brain. His campaign says he made a full recovery. Does this make you concerned about his fitness to serve as president of the United States, or not?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Concerned 30% 19% 45% 28% 27% 34% 31% 26% No 65 75 53 67 70 60 64 70 DK/NA 5 6 3 5 3 7 5 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Concerned 36% 20% 28% 37% 25% 30% 28% 42% 37% No 61 75 68 56 72 64 67 53 60 DK/NA 4 5 4 7 3 7 5 5 3 -
Question 35. Which comes closer to your point of view about artificial intelligence, also known as AI: it poses a danger to humanity or it will benefit humanity?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Danger 54% 59% 50% 54% 52% 56% 47% 62% Benefit 31 25 35 32 35 27 39 24 DK/NA 15 16 14 14 13 17 14 15 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Danger 58% 47% 58% 55% 51% 60% 56% 51% 56% Benefit 33 40 27 23 36 24 30 34 34 DK/NA 9 13 15 22 13 16 15 16 10