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2024 Presidential Race: Can't Get Much Closer, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 64% Want To See The Two Candidates Debate Again

With 41 days until Election Day, the presidential race remains too close to call as former President Donald Trump receives 48 percent support among likely voters, Vice President Kamala Harris receives 47 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each receive 1 percent support, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of likely voters released today.

In Quinnipiac University's August 29 poll, following the Democratic National Convention, the presidential race was too close to call. Harris received 49 percent support, Trump received 47 percent support, and Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent support.

In today's poll, Republicans 93 - 6 percent back Trump, while Democrats 94 - 5 percent back Harris. Among independents, 47 percent back Trump, 44 percent back Harris, 3 percent back Stein, and 2 percent back Oliver.

In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Trump receives 48 percent support and Harris receives 48 percent support.

ENTHUSIASM

Seventy percent of likely voters supporting Harris say they are very enthusiastic about supporting her, compared to 75 percent in August.

Seventy-one percent of likely voters supporting Trump say they are very enthusiastic about supporting him, compared to 68 percent in August.

"On the backstretch of the race to Election Day, all eyes are on which candidate can best stoke their supporter's enthusiasm all the way to the finish line. A slight shift suggests the Harris crowd is not roaring as loudly as it was last month," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:

  • Kamala Harris: 47 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable, 4 percent haven't heard enough about her;
  • Donald Trump: 47 percent favorable, 50 percent unfavorable, 1 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Tim Walz: 41 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable, 22 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • J.D. Vance: 36 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable, 17 percent haven't heard enough about him.

HARRIS VS. TRUMP: PERSONAL TRAITS

Likely voters were asked who they think cares more about the needs and problems of people like them, is more honest, and has higher ethical standards:

  • Cares more about the needs and problems of people like you: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
  • More honest: 48 percent say Harris, while 46 percent say Trump;
  • Higher ethical standards: 51 percent say Harris, while 43 percent say Trump.
"Of all the personality traits, empathy is the most personal. The Harris - Trump battle to assure voters they have their backs is about as close as close can be and mirrors the horse race," added Malloy.

HARRIS VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES

Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling six issues...

  • decisions about the use of nuclear weapons: 49 percent say Harris, while 47 percent say Trump;
  • preserving democracy in the United States: 50 percent say Harris, while 47 percent say Trump;
  • gun violence: 50 percent say Harris, while 45 percent say Trump;
  • the economy: 52 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris;
  • immigration: 53 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris;
  • abortion: 54 percent say Harris, while 41 percent say Trump.

When it comes to who they think would do a better job handling a crisis that put the country at great risk, 51 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.

Nearly 8 in 10 likely voters (79 percent) say it is very important that the next president unites the country, 18 percent say it is somewhat important, 1 percent say it is not so important, and 1 percent say it is not important at all.

OUTLOOK FOR PRESIDENCY: GREAT, TERRIBLE, OR IN-BETWEEN?

If Harris is elected, 19 percent of likely voters think she would be a great president, 24 percent think she would be a good president, 10 percent think she would be a so-so president, 9 percent think she would be a bad president, and 37 percent think she would be a terrible president.

If Trump is elected, 28 percent of likely voters think he would be a great president, 19 percent think he would be a good president, 6 percent think he would be a so-so president, 6 percent think he would be a bad president, and 41 percent think he would be a terrible president.

SECOND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE?

Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of likely voters say they would like to see a second debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, while 31 percent say they would not like to see a second debate. There is strong support for a second debate across the board.

"She's ready to rumble. He apparently is not. The final weeks heading to November 5th are bristling with tactics and intrigue as Trump, at least for now, steers clear of another one-on-one," added Malloy.

POLITICALLY MOTIVATED VIOLENCE

Roughly three-quarters (73 percent) of likely voters say they are either very concerned (39 percent) or somewhat concerned (34 percent) that there will be politically motivated violence following the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, while 27 percent say they are either not so concerned (12 percent) or not concerned at all (15 percent).

Democrats are the most concerned as 90 percent say they are either very concerned (52 percent) or somewhat concerned (38 percent), followed by independents with 69 percent saying they are either very concerned (41 percent) or somewhat concerned (28 percent) and Republicans with 59 percent saying they are either very concerned (24 percent) or somewhat concerned (35 percent).

"A large segment of likely voters fear the pot of political discourse boiling over into politically motivated violence, with anxieties most evident among Democrats," added Malloy.

CONSPIRACY THEORIES

More than 4 in 10 likely voters (44 percent) say they hear conspiracy theories repeated by people they know either very often (17 percent) or somewhat often (27 percent), while 54 percent say they hear conspiracy theories repeated by people they know either not so often (26 percent) or not often at all (28 percent).

TAYLOR SWIFT/ELON MUSK ENDORSEMENTS

More than three-quarters of likely voters (76 percent) say Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris does not make a difference in their level of enthusiasm about Harris' candidacy, while 9 percent say it makes them more enthusiastic, and 13 percent say it makes them less enthusiastic about Harris' candidacy.

Nearly two-thirds of likely voters (64 percent) say Elon Musk's endorsement of Donald Trump does not make a difference in their level of enthusiasm about Trump's candidacy, while 13 percent say it makes them more enthusiastic, and 21 percent say it makes them less enthusiastic about Trump's candidacy.

PRESIDENT BIDEN

Likely voters give President Joe Biden a negative 42 - 55 percent job approval rating.

1,728 likely voters nationwide were surveyed from September 19th - 22nd with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

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