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FLORIDA: Obama 51 - Romney 45 OHIO: Obama 50 - Romney 44 PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53 - Romney 42 President Barack Obama hits the magic 50 percent mark against Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with wide support for his plan to hike federal income taxes on upper-income voters, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today. This is the first measure of likely voters in these swing states and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them - shows: *\tFlorida:\t\t\tObama edges Romney 51- 45 percent; *\tOhio:\t\t\t\t\tObama over Romney by a slim 50 - 44 percent; *\tPennsylvania:\tObama tops Romney 53 - 42 percent. Support for President Obama's proposal to increase taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year is 58 - 37 percent in Florida, 60 - 37 percent in Ohio and 62 - 34 percent in Pennsylvania, the survey by Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times finds. \"If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and - if history is any guide - into a second term in the Oval Office,\" said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. \"The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally. Part of the reason may be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average. In Florida it has been dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case.\" \"All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy,\" Brown added. \"The president's strength among women is the dominant dynamic fueling his lead. It is this dynamic that argues for Romney to pick a female running mate. On the other hand, the president's lead in Ohio and Florida also argues for the selection by Romney of Sen. Rob Portman or Sen. Marco Rubio since he can't win the White House without the Buckeye and Sunshine states and presumably these home state senators would be the most helpful.\" Among voters who pick Romney, 10 percent each in Florida and Ohio and 9 percent in Pennsylvania say they might change their mind. Among Obama supporters, 11 percent in Florida, 13 percent in Ohio and 15 percent in Pennsylvania say they might change their mind. Florida Obama leads 51 - 44 percent among women likely voters in Florida while men go 50 percent for the Democrat and 46 percent for the Republican. Both candidates run strong among their own party's voters while independent voters split with 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney. Among likely voters backing Obama, 65 percent strongly favor him while 24 percent like him with reservations and 10 percent say they pick Obama out of dislike for Romney. Among Romney voters, 49 percent strongly favor him while 29 percent like him with reservations and 19 percent say they are voting against Obama. Obama gets a 50 - 46 percent favorability rating, while Romney gets a split 41 - 42 percent score. The economy is the most important issue in the election for 52 percent of Florida voters, with 22 percent who pick health care and 9 percent who cite the budget deficit. Romney would do a better job on the economy, 47 percent of Florida likely voters say, while 45 percent pick Obama. Obama is better on health care, voters say 50 - 42 percent. If Obama is reelected, his economic policies will hurt rather than help their financial situation, Florida voters say 38 - 23 percent, with 36 percent saying it won't matter. Romney gets a 31 - 30 percent split on whether he will help or hurt, with 34 percent saying no difference. Presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns, 53 percent of voters say; 19 percent want to see one or two years of returns and 23 percent say don't release returns. In Florida's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the Republican challenger 47 - 40 percent. Independent voters go 43 percent for Mack and 40 percent for Nelson. Florida voters disapprove 52 - 36 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing. \"One of the few positives for Romney in Florida is that voters are split on whether his election would help or hurt their pocketbook, but by 38 - 23 percent they say the president's re- election would leave their wallets thinner,' Brown said. Ohio Women Ohio likely voters back Obama 58 - 37 percent, while men back Romney 52 - 42 percent. Independent voters go 47 percent for Obama and 44 percent for Romney. Among Obama voters, 60 percent strongly favor him while 31 percent like him with reservations and 9 percent say their vote is against Romney. Among Romney voters, 42 percent strongly favor him while 35 percent like him with reservations and 22 percent say they are voting against Obama. Obama has a 51 - 45 percent favorability rating. Romney gets a 40 percent favorable rating and a 43 percent unfavorable score. The economy is the most important issue in the election for 48 percent of Ohio voters, with 20 percent who pick health care and 12 percent who cite the budget deficit. Obama would do a better job on the economy, 46 percent of Ohio likely voters say, while 45 percent pick Romney. Obama is better on health care, voters say 48 - 42 percent. Obama's financial policies would hurt rather than help them personally, Ohio voters say 38 - 26 percent, while 34 percent see no difference. Romney would hurt rather than help, voters say 37 - 26 percent, while 34 percent see no difference. Presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns, 51 percent of voters say; 18 percent want to see one or two years of returns and 28 percent say don't release returns. In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger 51 - 39 percent, with a 49 - 38 percent lead among independent voters. Ohio voters approve 47 - 38 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing. \"This is our first likely voter survey of Gov. John Kasich, so we can't compare it to earlier surveys of registered voters,\" said Brown. \"But the improvement in his approval rating is so big that it must be at least in part because of the improving economy in the state.\" Pennsylvania Pennsylvania women voters back Obama 59 - 35 percent, while men go 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Independent voters back Obama 58 - 36 percent. Among Obama voters, 59 percent strongly favor him while 33 percent like him with reservations and 7 percent say their vote is against Romney. Among Romney voters, 41 percent strongly favor him while 37 percent like him with reservations and 22 percent say they are voting against Obama. Obama has a 53 - 42 percent favorability rating, while Romney has a negative 39 - 47 percent favorability rating. The economy is the most important issue in the election for 54 percent of Pennsylvania voters, with 20 percent who pick health care and 8 percent who cite the budget deficit. Obama would do a better job on the economy than Romney, Pennsylvania likely voters say 48 - 44 percent. The president is better on health care, voters say 51 - 41 percent. Obama's policies would hurt rather than help them, Pennsylvania voters say 37 - 23 percent, while 37 percent see no difference. Romney would hurt rather than help, voters say 32 - 26 percent, while 37 percent see no difference. Presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns, 54 percent of voters say; 17 percent want to see one or two years of returns and 25 percent say don't release returns. In Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Robert Casey Jr. leads coal mine owner Tom Smith, the Republican challenger, 55 - 37 percent, with a 61 - 33 percent lead among independent voters. Pennsylvania voters disapprove 45 - 38 percent of the job Gov. Tom Corbett is doing. \"President Barack Obama is ahead by just about every measure in the Keystone State: He's got a double digit lead; his voters seem more committed to him and Pennsylvanians like him more,\" said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. \"Sen. Bob Casey seems to be sailing toward reelection as his Republican coal mine owner opponent Tom Smith fights a name recognition battle and fails to gain any traction.\" From July 24 - 30, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with CBS News and The New York Times, surveyed: *\t1,177 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent; *\t1,193 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; *\t1,168 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. For individual statewide crosstabs call (203) 582-5201 or click: Crosstabs by State "}
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Obama Hits 50% In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll Finds