Hochul Holds Slight Edge Over Zeldin In NY Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Crime Ranks As Most Urgent Issue
Share
Three weeks before Election Day, Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul has a slight edge on Republican challenger Lee Zeldin 50 - 46 percent in the New York governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in New York State released today.
Democrats (91 - 8 percent) support Hochul, while Republicans (92 - 7 percent) and independents (57 - 37 percent) support Zeldin.
Hochul leads in New York City 59 - 37 percent. The race is very tight in the suburbs with Zeldin receiving 50 percent and Hochul receiving 49 percent. Zeldin leads upstate 52 - 44 percent.
Forty-four percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Hochul, while 45 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 9 percent say they haven't heard enough about her.
Forty-three percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Zeldin, while 37 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 18 percent say they haven't heard enough about him.
"In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive. Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul's narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.
MOST URGENT ISSUE
Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing New York State today, crime (28 percent) ranks first among likely voters followed by inflation (20 percent) and protecting democracy (14 percent).
There are wide gaps by political party.
Among Republicans, crime (42 percent) ranks first followed by inflation (31 percent).
Among Democrats, the top issues are protecting democracy (23 percent), crime (18 percent), and inflation (12 percent).
Among independents, crime (31 percent) ranks first followed by inflation (21 percent) and protecting democracy (11 percent).
"Across the board, crime ranks high on the list of pressing issues. Zeldin making crime a major part of his campaign could be where he's making inroads in this race," added Snow.
SENATE RACE
As Senator Chuck Schumer seeks a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, he leads his Republican challenger Joe Pinion 54 - 42 percent.
Democrats (94 - 4 percent) support Schumer, while Republicans (88 - 11 percent) and independents (50 - 42 percent) support Pinion.
Fifty-one percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Schumer, while 44 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Twenty-six percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Pinion, while 14 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 59 percent say they haven't heard enough about him.
VOTING
For the 2022 general elections, nearly 7 in 10 likely voters (68 percent) plan to vote in person on Election Day, 22 percent plan to vote in person at an early voting location, and 9 percent plan to vote early by mail or absentee ballot.
JOB APPROVALS
Job approval ratings for New York elected officials:
- Governor Kathy Hochul: 46 percent approve, while 49 percent disapprove;
- Senator Chuck Schumer: 51 percent approve, while 45 percent disapprove;
- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: 45 percent approve, while 36 percent disapprove.
Forty-seven percent of likely voters approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, while 50 percent disapprove.
TRUMP FAVORABILITY
Thirty-three percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump, while 60 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
1,617 New York State likely voters were surveyed from October 12th - 16th with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
-
Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Kathy Hochul the Democrat and Lee Zeldin the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hochul 50% 7% 91% 37% 41% 57% Zeldin 46 92 8 57 55 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - 1 3 1 2 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Hochul 56% 44% 50% 56% 44% 59% 49% Zeldin 40 50 48 42 52 37 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 2 1 1 1 3 1 REFUSED - 2 1 - 2 1 - -
Question 2. Is your opinion of Kathy Hochul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 44% 11% 79% 30% 38% 49% Unfavorable 45 82 10 56 52 39 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 9 11 8 10 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Favorable 53% 40% 40% 53% 40% 52% 41% Unfavorable 36 46 51 41 53 33 50 Hvn't hrd enough 11 12 7 5 6 13 8 REFUSED - 1 2 2 2 3 1 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Lee Zeldin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 43% 86% 10% 49% 49% 39% Unfavorable 37 5 63 31 35 39 Hvn't hrd enough 18 9 25 18 15 20 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Favorable 38% 44% 44% 41% 50% 32% 47% Unfavorable 34 36 40 43 33 41 38 Hvn't hrd enough 28 18 15 14 16 24 14 REFUSED - 2 1 2 1 3 1 -
Question 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chuck Schumer the Democrat and Joe Pinion the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Schumer 54% 11% 94% 42% 46% 60% Pinion 42 88 4 50 51 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 1 1 5 2 4 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Schumer 66% 49% 54% 59% 46% 66% 51% Pinion 29 46 45 39 50 29 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 5 5 - 1 2 3 3 REFUSED - - - - 1 1 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Chuck Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 51% 12% 89% 37% 40% 59% Unfavorable 44 84 8 56 56 35 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 3 6 3 5 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Favorable 52% 46% 51% 59% 45% 60% 48% Unfavorable 32 49 47 37 50 34 49 Hvn't hrd enough 15 4 1 3 4 5 3 REFUSED - 1 - 1 1 1 - -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Joe Pinion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 26% 49% 9% 27% 29% 22% Unfavorable 14 4 26 7 12 15 Hvn't hrd enough 59 46 64 63 57 60 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Favorable 20% 28% 25% 24% 28% 20% 29% Unfavorable 14 14 15 15 12 15 15 Hvn't hrd enough 67 58 59 59 58 64 55 REFUSED - - - 2 2 1 1 -
Question 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathy Hochul is handling her job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 46% 8% 84% 33% 38% 53% Disapprove 49 89 10 63 59 40 DK/NA 5 3 6 4 3 7 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Approve 47% 39% 45% 55% 41% 53% 46% Disapprove 49 55 50 42 55 39 52 DK/NA 3 6 5 3 4 8 3 -
Question 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 51% 15% 89% 37% 42% 59% Disapprove 45 84 8 58 55 37 DK/NA 3 1 3 5 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Approve 49% 49% 52% 61% 48% 60% 46% Disapprove 44 47 47 37 51 34 51 DK/NA 7 3 1 2 2 5 3 -
Question 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 16% 73% 37% 40% 49% Disapprove 36 64 10 46 46 29 DK/NA 19 20 17 18 15 22 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Approve 46% 39% 46% 53% 43% 52% 39% Disapprove 30 40 41 32 41 26 42 DK/NA 24 21 13 15 16 22 19 -
Question 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 47% 9% 84% 34% 41% 52% Disapprove 50 90 13 64 56 46 DK/NA 3 1 3 2 3 2 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Approve 54% 36% 46% 55% 40% 54% 48% Disapprove 42 59 53 43 57 42 51 DK/NA 4 5 1 2 3 3 1 -
Question 11. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 33% 75% 5% 35% 40% 28% Unfavorable 60 19 90 57 54 65 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 2 5 4 4 REFUSED 3 4 2 4 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Favorable 24% 32% 37% 31% 38% 28% 33% Unfavorable 67 63 58 63 55 68 57 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 2 2 4 1 8 REFUSED 4 1 3 3 4 3 2 -
Question 12. In your opinion, what is the most urgent issue facing New York State today: immigration, protecting democracy, COVID-19, abortion, inflation, unemployment, homelessness, climate change, health care, racial inequality, schools, affordable housing, or crime?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Immigration 4% 7% 3% 4% 5% 4% Protecting democracy 14 6 23 11 14 14 COVID-19 - - 1 - - - Abortion 6 2 9 6 3 8 Inflation 20 31 12 21 24 17 Unemployment 1 - - 2 2 - Homelessness 4 2 4 2 2 5 Climate change 4 2 7 2 3 5 Health care 3 - 5 3 2 4 Racial inequality 3 1 5 1 2 4 Schools 3 3 2 6 4 3 Affordable housing 5 1 8 5 5 5 Crime 28 42 18 31 31 26 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 3 2 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub Immigration 1% 3% 4% 6% 4% 5% 4% Protecting democracy 13 10 15 19 17 11 14 COVID-19 - - 1 - - - 1 Abortion 7 9 4 7 7 5 6 Inflation 24 18 23 18 27 12 20 Unemployment 4 2 - - 1 2 - Homelessness 6 2 3 3 1 6 4 Climate change 3 4 4 4 4 3 6 Health care 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 Racial inequality 3 5 2 2 3 3 1 Schools 8 2 1 3 3 3 4 Affordable housing 9 8 3 4 3 9 2 Crime 16 28 36 25 21 36 31 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 3 4 2 2 DK/NA - 1 1 3 2 2 2 -
Question 13. Thinking about the 2022 general elections, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote in person at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom In person/Elect. Day 68% 82% 57% 73% 72% 65% Mail/Absentee 9 5 10 8 8 9 In person/Early vote 22 13 31 18 18 25 ALREADY VOTED(VOL) - - 1 - - - WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. AREA............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ UpState NYC Sub In person/Elect. Day 65% 66% 73% 66% 69% 65% 71% Mail/Absentee 12 10 6 10 7 9 11 In person/Early vote 20 23 20 22 23 25 16 ALREADY VOTED(VOL) - - - 1 1 - 1 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 1 - 1 1 1 1