2020 Race: Trump Has Slight Edge In Texas, A Tight Race In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Texas Senate Race: Cornyn Leads Hegar

Share

TEXAS: TRUMP 50%, BIDEN 45%

OHIO: BIDEN 48%, TRUMP 47%

In Texas and Ohio, two states where President Trump won easily in 2016, the president holds a slight lead in Texas and it's too close to call in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in both states. These are the first surveys from the Quinnipiac University Poll in both Texas and Ohio to use likely voters and results cannot be compared to prior surveys of registered voters.

"With six weeks to go until Election Day and most minds made up, Ohio could hinge on a sliver of likely voters who signal they may have a change of heart and the four percent who say they are unsure right now who they'll back. At this point, it's a toss-up," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.
"It is close but leaning toward Trump in Texas. There are still a slim number of likely voters who are undecided or on the fence about their choice, which could leave just enough wiggle room for either candidate to take Texas' many electoral votes," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

MIND MADE UP

In Ohio, 97 percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, with 3 percent saying they might change their minds. In Texas, 94 percent say their minds are made up, with 5 percent saying their minds might change.

VOTING IN 2020

In Ohio, 46 percent of likely voters plan on voting in person on Election Day. Thirty-five percent plan on voting by mail/absentee ballot, and 16 percent plan on voting at an early voting location.

In Texas, 47 percent of likely voters plan on voting at an early voting location, 38 percent plan on voting in person, and 13 percent plan on voting by mail/absentee ballots.

TEXAS: BIDEN VS. TRUMP

Likely voters in Texas give President Trump a mixed favorability rating, with 49 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 47 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion.

Former Vice President Biden has a negative favorability rating among likely voters in Texas, 41 - 52 percent.

Trump has clear leads in three of five categories among likely voters when asked who would do a better job handling issues:

  • On handling the economy: Trump 58 percent, Biden 39 percent;
  • On handling the military: Trump 52 percent, Biden 45 percent;
  • On keeping your family safe: Trump 52 percent, Biden 44 percent;
  • On handling the response to the coronavirus: Trump 49 percent, Biden 47 percent;
  • On handling racial inequality: Biden 50 percent, Trump 45 percent.

TEXAS: TRUMP APPROVALS

Likely voters are divided on the way Trump is handling his job as president, 50 - 48 percent, and are similarly split on his handling of the response to the coronavirus, 49 - 49 percent.

TEXAS: SENATE RACE

In the race for the U.S. Senate where incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fourth term, Cornyn leads Democratic challenger MJ Hegar 50 - 42 percent. Eighty-four percent of voters say their minds are made up, while 15 percent say they may change their minds.

Thirty-nine percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Cornyn, 30 percent say unfavorable, and 30 percent say they haven't heard enough about him. Twenty-nine percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Hegar, 19 percent say unfavorable, and 50 percent say they haven't heard enough about her.

OHIO: BIDEN VS. TRUMP

Ohio likely voters give Biden a mixed favorability rating, with 45 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 49 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion.

Trump has a negative favorability rating among likely voters in Ohio, 45 - 51 percent.

Biden leads on the coronavirus response and racial inequality, while President Trump has the advantage on the economy. Likely voters are mixed when it comes to handling the military and keeping your family safe:

  • On handling the economy: Trump 52 percent, Biden 45 percent;
  • On handling the military: Trump 50 percent, Biden 47 percent;
  • On keeping your family safe: Trump 48 percent, Biden 48 percent;
  • On handling the response to the coronavirus: Biden 50 percent, Trump 45 percent;
  • On handling racial inequality: Biden 53 percent, Trump 41 percent.

OHIO: TRUMP APPROVALS

Likely voters slightly disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president, 51 - 46 percent, and also disapprove of his handling of the response to the coronavirus, 52 - 45 percent.

From September 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

  • 1,085 likely voters in Ohio with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points;
  • 1,078 likely voters in Texas with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

Poll Questions