Swing State Poll: Trump Up In Wisconsin While Dems Have The Edge In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; In Michigan It's Close

Share

In three critical Rust Belt states that delivered a victory to President Trump in 2016 by narrow margins, President Trump leads in head to head matchups against the top Democratic candidates in Wisconsin, but loses or trails within the margin of error in Pennsylvania matchups, and is locked in close races in Michigan, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University Poll released today. This is the first swing state poll of the 2020 presidential election cycle from the Quinnipiac University Poll that includes separate polls conducted simultaneously in key swing states. The poll was conducted from February 12th - 18th, prior to the February 19th Democratic primary debate.

WISCONSIN

Among registered voters in Wisconsin, President Trump leads the Democratic candidates by between 7 and 11 percentage points in head to head election matchups:

  • Trump tops Senator Amy Klobuchar 50 - 39 percent;
  • Trump leads Senator Elizabeth Warren 51 - 41 percent;
  • Trump beats former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg 49 - 41 percent;
  • Trump tops former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg 49 - 41 percent;
  • Trump defeats Senator Bernie Sanders 50 - 43 percent;
  • Trump is ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden 49 - 42 percent.

PENNSYLVANIA

In Pennsylvania, the picture is nearly reversed. Among registered voters in Pennsylvania, President Trump trails Biden, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg by 6 to 8 percentage points in head to head election matchups, while Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren are in tight races with the president:

  • Biden is ahead of Trump 50 - 42 percent;
  • Klobuchar leads Trump 49 - 42 percent;
  • Bloomberg leads Trump 48 - 42 percent;
  • Sanders has 48 percent and Trump gets 44 percent;
  • Buttigieg receives 47 percent and Trump has 43 percent;
  • Warren gets 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent.

MICHIGAN

Among registered voters in Michigan, the Democratic candidates range from narrowly ahead to essentially tied with President Trump in head to head election matchups:

  • Sanders narrowly tops Trump 48 - 43 percent;
  • Bloomberg has a slight lead over Trump 47 - 42 percent;
  • Biden has 47 percent and Trump gets 43 percent;
  • Warren gets 45 percent, while Trump receives 43 percent;
  • Buttigieg gets 45 percent and Trump has 44 percent;
  • Klobuchar receives 45 percent to Trump's 44 percent.
"Three different states, three different scenarios, one constant - the economy. It's a top issue for voters, and it's giving President Trump a strong tailwind. Wisconsin voters give him a job approval rating above 50 percent, higher than what he receives nationally and in Pennsylvania and Michigan. These Wisconsin numbers are a red warning sign for Democrats that rebuilding the 'blue wall' in 2020 may not be so easy. But it's a long way to November," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

President Trump has a split favorability rating in Wisconsin with 50 percent of voters saying they have a favorable opinion of him, while 47 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of him. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, the president is negatively viewed by more than half of registered voters.

The Democratic presidential candidates are mostly negatively viewed by voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

"Between President Trump and the Democratic presidential candidates, voters aren't showing much enthusiasm about any candidate. Getting a split favorability rating is the high water mark," added Snow.

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Voters in all three states are in sync in naming the three most important issues in deciding who to vote for in the presidential election. Overall, the economy tops the list among voters, followed by health care and climate change:

  • Wisconsin: 31 percent say economy, 27 percent say health care, 12 percent say climate change;
  • Pennsylvania: 29 percent say economy, 26 percent say health care, 13 percent say climate change;
  • Michigan: 35 percent say economy, 24 percent say health care, 12 percent say climate change.

When broken down by political party, however, there are differences in the top three issues in each state.

"The issues voters choose as their most important show a big divide. Voters citing the economy as the number one issue are voting overwhelmingly for President Trump. But the exact opposite is true for voters who say health care or climate change are their top issues, who are voting overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates," Snow said.

TRUMP APPROVAL RATING

When it comes to how voters view the job President Trump is doing, the president scores his highest job approval rating among voters in Wisconsin, 51 - 46 percent. In both Michigan and Pennsylvania, his job approval is underwater as more voters disapprove than approve of the job he's doing. In Michigan, voters disapprove 54 - 42 percent. In Pennsylvania, voters disapprove 52 - 44 percent.

THE ECONOMY

The president gets high marks for his handling of the economy. Wisconsin voters approve 59 - 38 percent of President Trump's handling of the economy, Pennsylvania voters approve 57 - 41 percent, and Michigan voters approve 52 - 44 percent.

Looking at how voters rate their own personal financial situations compared to 2016, the last presidential election, more than half in each state say they are better off:

  • Wisconsin: 62 percent say better off, 20 percent say worse off, 16 percent volunteer the same;
  • Pennsylvania: 57 percent say better off, 20 percent say worse off, 21 percent volunteer the same;
  • Michigan: 55 percent say better off, 21 percent say worse off, 22 percent volunteer the same.

Asked to rate their state's economy, Wisconsin voters are the most positive:

  • Wisconsin: 76 percent say excellent or good, 23 percent say not so good or poor;
  • Pennsylvania: 70 percent say excellent or good, 29 percent say not so good or poor;
  • Michigan: 63 percent say excellent or good, 34 percent say not so good or poor.

At least half of all voters in each state say the economy is staying the same, at least one-third in each state say it's getting better, and between 11 and 15 percent in each state say it's getting worse.

MICHIGAN SENATE RACE

In the Michigan Senate race, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads Republican John James, 45 - 39 percent.

From February 12th - 18th, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

  • 845 self-identified registered voters in Michigan with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points;
  • 849 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points;
  • 823 self-identified registered voters in Wisconsin with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

Poll Questions