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Georgia Presidential And Senate Contests Are Tight, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Warnock Tops Field In Crowded Special Election

The race for the White House in Georgia is too close to call with 50 percent of likely voters supporting former Vice President Joe Biden and 47 percent supporting President Trump, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters released today.

Republicans back Trump 97 - 3 percent, Democrats back Biden 98 percent, and independents back Biden 51 - 42 percent. There are wide gaps among gender and race. Men support Trump 56 - 41 percent, while women support Biden 57 - 39 percent. Black voters support Biden 89 - 7 percent, while white voters support Trump 67 - 31 percent. Broken down by education, Trump's support is divided among white voters with a college degree, 51 - 46 percent, and he has a strong lead among white voters without a college degree, 76 - 23 percent.

Ninety-seven percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, and 2 percent say they may change their minds.

"It was Trump by 5 points in 2016 but it's a nail biter in 2020. Can Biden be the first Democrat since Bill Clinton to turn Georgia blue?" said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

Both candidates receive mixed favorability ratings. Forty-nine percent of likely voters give Biden an unfavorable rating, while 48 percent say favorable. Trump gets 51 percent unfavorable and 47 percent favorable.


Forty-two percent of voters who haven't already voted in Georgia think they will vote in person on Election Day, 32 percent say they think they will vote at an early voting location, and 23 percent say they will vote by mail or absentee ballot.


Likely voters in Georgia are divided about which candidate would do a better job handling Supreme Court nominations, with 50 percent saying Biden and 48 percent saying Trump. They are also split 48 - 48 percent on who would do a better job keeping them and their families safe. When it comes to other issues, likely voters say:

  • 53 - 45 percent that Trump would do a better job handling the economy;
  • 52 - 46 percent that Biden would do a better job handling health care;
  • 53 - 43 percent that Biden would do a better job handling racial inequality;
  • 51 - 46 percent that Biden would do a better job handling the response to the coronavirus.

Voters name the economy (25 percent) as the most important issue to them in deciding who to back in the presidential election. This is followed by law and order (15 percent) and racial inequality (15 percent).


Likely voters are split on the way Trump is handling his job as president as 51 percent disapprove and 47 percent approve, while they disapprove of his handling of the response to the coronavirus, 53 - 45 percent.


Republican incumbent Senator David Perdue, who is seeking a second term, is essentially tied with Democrat Jon Ossoff, as 49 percent of likely voters go to Ossoff and 48 percent go to Perdue. Republicans support Perdue 97 - 2 percent, Democrats support Ossoff 96 - 2 percent, and independents support Ossoff 53 - 43 percent.

Likely voters have a favorable view of Ossoff, 45 - 38 percent, but are split on Perdue, with 45 percent saying favorable and 44 percent saying unfavorable.

"The Perdue-Ossoff race: expensive, combative, consequential, and a virtual tie. This Georgia race looms as one of several that could shift the balance of power in the U.S. Senate," said Malloy.


In the crowded special election Senate race for the seat held by Republican Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed last December, the top three candidates are Democrat Raphael Warnock with 31 percent, Loeffler at 23 percent, and Republican Doug Collins at 22 percent.

If no candidate has a majority on Election Day, there will be a runoff in early January among the top two candidates.

"The special election gets a special and powerful endorsement. Will the Obama stamp of approval for Raphael Warnock winnow down a multi-candidate scrum and propel him to the runoff? Georgia is providing Senate race drama times two," added Malloy.

Overall, voters are divided when it comes to which party they want to see win control of the United States Senate, with 49 percent saying the Democratic party and 48 percent saying the Republican party.


With the Supreme Court scheduled to hear arguments in November challenging the Affordable Care Act's constitutionality, likely voters say 52 - 43 percent, including independents 55 - 38 percent, that they want to see the Affordable Care Act remain in place.

A majority of likely voters, 58 - 35 percent, agree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion, including independents 66 - 28 percent.

As for who should fill the Supreme Court vacancy in the wake of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, 52 percent say it should be filled by the winner of the presidential election, while 45 percent say President Trump should fill it before the election.

1,125 likely Georgia voters were surveyed from September 23 - 27 with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

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