Georgia Presidential And Senate Contests Are Tight, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Warnock Tops Field In Crowded Special Election
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The race for the White House in Georgia is too close to call with 50 percent of likely voters supporting former Vice President Joe Biden and 47 percent supporting President Trump, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters released today.
Republicans back Trump 97 - 3 percent, Democrats back Biden 98 percent, and independents back Biden 51 - 42 percent. There are wide gaps among gender and race. Men support Trump 56 - 41 percent, while women support Biden 57 - 39 percent. Black voters support Biden 89 - 7 percent, while white voters support Trump 67 - 31 percent. Broken down by education, Trump's support is divided among white voters with a college degree, 51 - 46 percent, and he has a strong lead among white voters without a college degree, 76 - 23 percent.
Ninety-seven percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, and 2 percent say they may change their minds.
"It was Trump by 5 points in 2016 but it's a nail biter in 2020. Can Biden be the first Democrat since Bill Clinton to turn Georgia blue?" said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Both candidates receive mixed favorability ratings. Forty-nine percent of likely voters give Biden an unfavorable rating, while 48 percent say favorable. Trump gets 51 percent unfavorable and 47 percent favorable.
VOTING IN 2020
Forty-two percent of voters who haven't already voted in Georgia think they will vote in person on Election Day, 32 percent say they think they will vote at an early voting location, and 23 percent say they will vote by mail or absentee ballot.
BIDEN VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
Likely voters in Georgia are divided about which candidate would do a better job handling Supreme Court nominations, with 50 percent saying Biden and 48 percent saying Trump. They are also split 48 - 48 percent on who would do a better job keeping them and their families safe. When it comes to other issues, likely voters say:
- 53 - 45 percent that Trump would do a better job handling the economy;
- 52 - 46 percent that Biden would do a better job handling health care;
- 53 - 43 percent that Biden would do a better job handling racial inequality;
- 51 - 46 percent that Biden would do a better job handling the response to the coronavirus.
Voters name the economy (25 percent) as the most important issue to them in deciding who to back in the presidential election. This is followed by law and order (15 percent) and racial inequality (15 percent).
TRUMP JOB APPROVALS
Likely voters are split on the way Trump is handling his job as president as 51 percent disapprove and 47 percent approve, while they disapprove of his handling of the response to the coronavirus, 53 - 45 percent.
SENATE RACE: PERDUE VS. OSSOFF
Republican incumbent Senator David Perdue, who is seeking a second term, is essentially tied with Democrat Jon Ossoff, as 49 percent of likely voters go to Ossoff and 48 percent go to Perdue. Republicans support Perdue 97 - 2 percent, Democrats support Ossoff 96 - 2 percent, and independents support Ossoff 53 - 43 percent.
Likely voters have a favorable view of Ossoff, 45 - 38 percent, but are split on Perdue, with 45 percent saying favorable and 44 percent saying unfavorable.
"The Perdue-Ossoff race: expensive, combative, consequential, and a virtual tie. This Georgia race looms as one of several that could shift the balance of power in the U.S. Senate," said Malloy.
SENATE SPECIAL ELECTION
In the crowded special election Senate race for the seat held by Republican Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed last December, the top three candidates are Democrat Raphael Warnock with 31 percent, Loeffler at 23 percent, and Republican Doug Collins at 22 percent.
If no candidate has a majority on Election Day, there will be a runoff in early January among the top two candidates.
"The special election gets a special and powerful endorsement. Will the Obama stamp of approval for Raphael Warnock winnow down a multi-candidate scrum and propel him to the runoff? Georgia is providing Senate race drama times two," added Malloy.
Overall, voters are divided when it comes to which party they want to see win control of the United States Senate, with 49 percent saying the Democratic party and 48 percent saying the Republican party.
SUPREME COURT, ACA, & ABORTION
With the Supreme Court scheduled to hear arguments in November challenging the Affordable Care Act's constitutionality, likely voters say 52 - 43 percent, including independents 55 - 38 percent, that they want to see the Affordable Care Act remain in place.
A majority of likely voters, 58 - 35 percent, agree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion, including independents 66 - 28 percent.
As for who should fill the Supreme Court vacancy in the wake of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, 52 percent say it should be filled by the winner of the presidential election, while 45 percent say President Trump should fill it before the election.
1,125 likely Georgia voters were surveyed from September 23 - 27 with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
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Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 50% 3% 98% 51% 41% 57% 46% 23% Trump 47 97 - 42 56 39 51 76 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 2 - 1 6 2 3 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Biden 63% 49% 49% 45% 26% 35% 31% 89% Trump 36 48 47 54 71 63 67 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 DK/NA - 3 3 1 1 2 2 4 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q11................... Health Corona- Racial Law + Suprm Econ care virus Inequl Order Court Biden 13% 84% 95% 88% 13% 36% Trump 85 10 5 8 85 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - DK/NA 1 5 1 4 1 2 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1........... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Biden Trump Mind made up 97% 99% 96% Might change 2 1 3 DK/NA 1 - 2 -
Question 2. (If haven't already voted) Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... HAVEN'T ALREADY VOTED.................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No In person 42% 62% 24% 42% 53% 33% 37% 57% Mail/Absentee ballot 23 11 36 23 19 27 24 16 Early voting loc 32 25 39 31 26 38 37 24 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk In person 41% 52% 44% 30% 59% 41% 50% 24% Mail/Absentee ballot 29 17 16 34 14 25 19 28 Early voting loc 30 28 37 34 26 32 29 45 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA - 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Biden Trump In person 22% 65% Mail/Absentee ballot 36 11 Early voting loc 41 23 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 2 2 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 48% 4% 97% 45% 38% 56% 44% 21% Unfavorable 49 93 2 49 60 39 53 75 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 - 2 2 2 2 2 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 56% 47% 47% 46% 24% 34% 29% 88% Unfavorable 41 51 48 51 73 62 68 8 Hvn't hrd enough 3 - 3 2 2 2 2 2 REFUSED - 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 47% 96% 2% 39% 54% 40% 48% 75% Unfavorable 51 4 95 54 43 57 50 25 Hvn't hrd enough 1 - 1 3 2 1 - - REFUSED 1 - 1 3 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 33% 47% 47% 54% 69% 62% 65% 8% Unfavorable 67 51 49 45 30 37 34 87 Hvn't hrd enough - 1 3 - - - - 3 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 -
Question 5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Ossoff the Democrat and David Perdue the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Jon Ossoff the Democrat or David Perdue the Republican?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Ossoff 49% 2% 96% 53% 41% 57% 45% 23% Perdue 48 97 2 43 58 40 54 74 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - 1 - 1 DK/NA 2 - 1 4 1 3 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Ossoff 61% 52% 46% 45% 27% 35% 31% 89% Perdue 33 47 51 54 72 62 67 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - 1 1 - DK/NA 6 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 -
Question 5a. (If candidate chosen q5) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q5.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q5 Tot Ossoff Perdue Mind made up 96% 97% 94% Might change 3 2 5 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Jon Ossoff favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 45% 3% 90% 42% 36% 53% 43% 19% Unfavorable 38 75 1 35 45 32 44 60 Hvn't hrd enough 16 20 8 21 19 14 12 20 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 52% 44% 45% 43% 22% 33% 28% 83% Unfavorable 26 39 39 44 59 50 54 6 Hvn't hrd enough 22 17 15 12 18 16 17 10 REFUSED - - 1 1 1 1 1 - -
Question 7. Is your opinion of David Perdue favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 45% 88% 5% 39% 55% 36% 51% 66% Unfavorable 44 3 85 45 35 52 43 22 Hvn't hrd enough 11 8 10 15 10 11 5 11 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 31% 41% 49% 53% 67% 55% 61% 11% Unfavorable 50 47 42 41 24 35 29 77 Hvn't hrd enough 19 12 8 6 8 10 9 12 REFUSED - - 1 1 1 1 1 - -
Question 8. If the special election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kelly Loeffler the Republican, Doug Collins the Republican, Raphael Warnock the Democrat, Matt Lieberman the Democrat, and Ed Tarver the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Kelly Loeffler the Republican, Doug Collins the Republican, Raphael Warnock the Democrat, Matt Lieberman the Democrat, or Ed Tarver the Democrat?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Loeffler 23% 42% 1% 22% 29% 17% 27% 30% Collins 22 47 1 21 27 18 24 38 Warnock 31 1 61 31 24 37 29 13 Lieberman 9 1 16 9 8 9 7 4 Tarver 4 - 6 5 5 3 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - 1 - 1 DK/NA 12 8 14 12 7 16 11 13 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Loeffler 20% 23% 22% 23% 34% 25% 30% 6% Collins 12 22 23 30 37 29 33 5 Warnock 28 29 33 33 14 23 18 58 Lieberman 15 10 7 6 6 4 5 14 Tarver 6 3 5 1 2 - 1 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - 1 1 - DK/NA 20 13 8 7 7 17 12 8 -
Question 8a. (If candidate chosen q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q8....................................... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q8............................. Tot Loeffler Collins Warnock Lieberman Mind made up 78% 80% 81% 86% 52% Might change 21 19 18 13 47 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 -
Question 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................ WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No WhtEvang Approve 47% 96% 1% 41% 55% 39% 51% 75% 86% Disapprove 51 3 98 55 43 59 47 25 13 DK/NA 2 - 1 4 2 2 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 31% 48% 47% 55% 70% 63% 66% 7% Disapprove 68 50 51 44 29 37 33 91 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 -
Question 10. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Republican Party 48% 99% - 44% 57% 40% 54% 76% Democratic Party 49 1 98 51 40 56 44 22 DK/NA 3 - 2 5 3 4 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Republican Party 31% 50% 48% 55% 73% 63% 68% 7% Democratic Party 62 48 47 43 26 34 30 88 DK/NA 7 2 4 1 2 3 2 5 -
Question 11. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for president: the economy, immigration, health care, climate change, the coronavirus pandemic, racial inequality, law and order, or the Supreme Court?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 25% 42% 6% 26% 33% 19% 30% 34% Immigration 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 Health care 12 3 22 10 8 15 12 9 Climate change 4 - 6 5 5 3 6 2 Coronavirus 12 2 21 14 11 13 13 5 Racial inequality 15 3 26 16 10 19 7 5 Law and order 15 30 3 14 18 12 13 24 Supreme Court 12 15 9 11 11 12 15 14 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 3 5 3 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Economy 32% 30% 23% 21% 38% 28% 33% 7% Immigration 5 1 1 2 2 1 2 - Health care 3 9 17 13 6 13 10 19 Climate change 7 5 1 4 4 4 4 3 Coronavirus 7 13 12 14 7 8 8 21 Racial inequality 25 17 14 9 4 7 6 32 Law and order 9 13 15 19 23 18 20 6 Supreme Court 12 9 12 13 13 16 14 7 DK/NA 1 2 4 6 2 4 3 4 -
Question 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 45% 93% 1% 39% 54% 37% 47% 73% Disapprove 53 6 98 58 45 61 51 25 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 29% 46% 44% 54% 68% 59% 64% 6% Disapprove 69 53 54 46 30 38 34 93 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 1 3 2 1 -
Question 13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 53% 98% 5% 54% 62% 44% 56% 79% Biden 45 2 93 40 35 53 43 20 DK/NA 2 - 2 5 2 3 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 46% 57% 51% 56% 76% 66% 71% 12% Biden 54 41 46 42 23 33 28 85 DK/NA 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 3 -
Question 14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling health care: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 46% 95% 1% 39% 54% 38% 50% 74% Biden 52 4 99 56 44 59 47 24 DK/NA 2 1 - 5 3 2 3 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 28% 46% 47% 54% 70% 62% 66% 6% Biden 68 52 49 46 28 36 32 93 DK/NA 3 1 4 1 3 2 2 2 -
Question 15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling racial inequality: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 43% 91% - 36% 49% 37% 44% 70% Biden 53 5 99 59 47 59 51 26 DK/NA 4 4 1 6 4 4 5 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 25% 43% 44% 52% 63% 60% 61% 5% Biden 72 54 52 46 33 37 35 93 DK/NA 3 3 4 2 5 3 4 2 -
Question 16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the response to the coronavirus: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 46% 95% - 40% 55% 39% 49% 75% Biden 51 3 98 55 43 59 48 23 DK/NA 3 2 1 5 3 3 3 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 33% 46% 46% 54% 69% 62% 66% 6% Biden 66 52 50 45 28 36 32 92 DK/NA 1 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 -
Question 17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - keeping you and your family safe: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 48% 97% 2% 44% 58% 40% 52% 76% Biden 48 2 97 48 38 57 44 20 DK/NA 3 1 2 7 4 3 4 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 39% 49% 48% 54% 71% 63% 68% 7% Biden 59 48 48 44 23 34 29 91 DK/NA 2 3 4 2 5 2 4 2 -
Question 18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling Supreme Court nominations: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 48% 97% 1% 44% 57% 39% 52% 76% Biden 50 3 98 53 41 59 46 23 DK/NA 2 - 1 3 1 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 33% 49% 47% 55% 72% 63% 68% 7% Biden 67 51 49 43 26 36 31 92 DK/NA - - 4 1 1 2 1 1 -
Question 19. In general, would you like to see the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, remain in place, or would you like to see Obamacare ended?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Remain in place 52% 8% 98% 55% 43% 60% 47% 25% Ended 43 86 1 38 52 34 49 68 DK/NA 5 6 1 7 5 5 4 8 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Remain in place 63% 51% 55% 46% 27% 37% 32% 93% Ended 31 47 42 46 67 56 61 6 DK/NA 6 2 3 8 6 7 6 1 -
Question 20. In general, do you agree or disagree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Agree 58% 22% 90% 66% 54% 62% 59% 40% Disagree 35 69 5 28 39 31 35 53 DK/NA 7 9 5 5 6 8 6 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 72% 64% 55% 50% 47% 47% 47% 84% Disagree 24 32 37 42 47 47 47 12 DK/NA 4 4 8 8 7 6 6 4 -
Question 21. Which comes closer to your point of view regarding the Supreme Court vacancy created by the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg: the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled by the winner of the presidential election, or the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled by President Trump before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Election winner 52% 5% 96% 57% 45% 58% 48% 25% President Trump 45 92 2 40 54 37 51 71 DK/NA 3 3 1 3 2 4 1 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Election winner 68% 51% 52% 45% 28% 38% 33% 95% President Trump 29 45 46 53 70 59 64 5 DK/NA 3 4 2 2 2 3 3 - CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Biden Trump Election winner 94% 6% President Trump 4 90 DK/NA 2 4