Swing State Poll: Biden Leads Trump In Pennsylvania Among Likely Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Presidential Race Is Too Close To Call In Florida

In Florida and Pennsylvania, two key states President Trump narrowly won in 2016, one race is tight and the other gives former Vice President Joe Biden a clear lead, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the two states. In Florida, 48 percent of likely voters support Biden and 45 percent support Trump. In Pennsylvania, Biden leads Trump 52 - 44 percent.

These are the first surveys of likely voters in the 2020 presidential election race in Florida and Pennsylvania by the Quinnipiac University Poll, and cannot be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

COMMON THREAD: MINDS MADE UP

Both states share something in common: nearly all likely voters say their minds are made up. In Florida, 93 percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, with 5 percent saying they might change their minds. In Pennsylvania, 94 percent say their minds are made up, with 5 percent saying their minds might change.

FLORIDA: HOW VOTERS PLAN TO CAST BALLOTS

Forty-two percent of Florida likely voters say they think they will vote in person on Election Day, 32 percent think they will vote early by mail or an absentee ballot, and 23 percent think they will vote at an early voting location.

FLORIDA: MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Given a list of choices, a plurality of Florida likely voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in the presidential race. Twenty-seven percent name the economy, 19 percent say law and order, 15 percent name the coronavirus, and 13 percent say racial inequality.

Broken down by political party affiliation, the top issues vary. Forty-two percent of Republicans name the economy and 35 percent name law and order as their top issues. Twenty-nine percent of Democrats name the coronavirus as their top issue, while 24 percent say racial inequality. Among independents, the economy ranks as the top issue with 26 percent, followed by law and order at 16 percent.

FLORIDA: BIDEN VS. TRUMP ON THE ISSUES

Florida likely voters were asked which candidate would do a better job handling key issues:

• On handling the economy: Trump 55 percent, Biden 42 percent;
• On handling a crisis: Biden 49 percent, Trump 47 percent;
• On handling the response to the coronavirus: Biden 50 percent, Trump 45 percent;
• On handling health care: Biden 51 percent, Trump 43 percent;
• On handling racial inequality: Biden 53 percent, Trump 41 percent.

"Ain't no sunshine if it's gone... The president's re-election team faces the reality that the Trump era could end at sun splashed Mar-a-Lago in November if Joe Biden captures Florida," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

FLORIDA: FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Likely voters have slightly negative views of both presidential candidates. For Biden, 41 percent have a favorable opinion and 46 percent have an unfavorable one.

For Trump, 44 percent have a favorable opinion and 49 percent have an unfavorable one.

FLORIDA: JOB APPROVALS

• Trump Job Approval: 46 percent approve, 50 percent disapprove.
• Trump Handling of the Economy: 54 percent approve, 42 percent disapprove.
• Governor Ron DeSantis Job Approval: 45 percent approve, 45 percent disapprove.

FLORIDA: HANDLING CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE

• Trump Handling of Coronavirus: 46 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove.
• DeSantis Handling of Coronavirus: 45 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove.

PENNSYLVANIA: HOW VOTERS PLAN TO CAST BALLOTS

In Pennsylvania, 67 percent of likely voters think they will vote in person on Election Day, with 30 percent saying they think they will vote early by mail or absentee ballot.

PENNSYLVANIA: MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Given a list of choices, a plurality of Pennsylvania likely voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in the presidential race. Twenty-nine percent name the economy, 16 percent say the coronavirus, 15 percent name law and order, and 13 percent say racial inequality.

Republicans rank the economy (50 percent) and law and order (28 percent) as their top issues. Democrats name the coronavirus (29 percent) and racial inequality (25 percent), and independents name the economy (30 percent), law and order (15 percent), and the coronavirus (14 percent) as their top issues.

"The economy is key in Pennsylvania and a majority of likely voters approve of the way President Trump is handling it, but it's overshadowed by Trump's handling of the coronavirus and his overall job approval. Both are registering double digit deficits. On top of that, likely voters have more confidence in Joe Biden to handle the coronavirus, racial inequality, health care, and a crisis," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

PENNSYLVANIA: BIDEN VS. TRUMP ON THE ISSUES

Pennsylvania likely voters were asked which candidate would do a better job handling key issues:

• On handling the economy: Trump 52 percent, Biden 45 percent;
• On handling a crisis: Biden 52 percent, Trump 44 percent;
• On handling health care: Biden 54 percent, Trump 42 percent;
• On handling the response to the coronavirus: Biden 54 percent, Trump 41 percent;
• On handling racial inequality: Biden 57 percent, Trump 38 percent.

PENNSYLVANIA: FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Likely voters in Pennsylvania have a mixed view about Joe Biden and a negative view of President Trump.

Forty-six percent have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 45 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Forty-one percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 55 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

PENNSYLVANIA: JOB APPROVALS

• Trump Job Approval: 43 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove.
• Trump Handling of the Economy: 52 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove.
• Governor Tom Wolf Job Approval: 55 percent approve, 38 percent disapprove.

PENNSYLVANIA: HANDLING CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE

• Trump Handling of Coronavirus: 43 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove.
• Wolf Handling of Coronavirus: 55 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove.

From August 28th - September 1st, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

• 1,235 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points;
• 1,107 likely voters in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

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