South Carolina Senate Race: Graham And Harrison Tied, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Divided On Trump Filling SCOTUS Vacancy Before Election
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Republican incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison are locked in a dead heat in the race for U.S. Senate, 48 - 48 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters, which was conducted prior to the presidential debate. This is unchanged from a September 16th survey, which also showed both candidates each getting 48 percent support.
Ninety-five percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the Senate match up say their minds are made up, while 4 percent say they might change their minds.
"There hasn't been a Democrat elected to the Senate from South Carolina since 1998. Outspent and labeled by critics as an apologist for President Trump, Lindsey Graham is facing the fight of his political life," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
In general, 49 percent of likely voters want to see the Republican Party win control of the U.S. Senate, while 44 percent want the Democratic Party.
VOTING IN 2020
A big majority of likely voters in South Carolina (71 percent) think they will vote in person on Election Day, while 25 percent say they will vote early by mail or absentee ballot.
HARRISON VS. GRAHAM: PERSONAL TRAITS
Harrison receives higher scores than Graham when it comes to honesty, empathy, and likely voters' overall opinions about the candidates.
Likely voters give Harrison a positive favorability rating, 48 - 35 percent, while Graham's favorability rating is negative, 51 - 43 percent.
When it comes to honesty, likely voters say Harrison is honest 51 - 25 percent, with 24 percent saying they don't know. For Graham, likely voters say 50 - 40 percent that he is not honest.
Harrison gets another positive score on whether or not he cares about average people, as likely voters say he does, 59 - 25 percent. Graham gets another negative score on whether or not he cares about average people, with 50 percent saying he does not and 44 percent saying that he does.
Twenty-one percent of voters name the economy as the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in the Senate race, and 20 percent say law and order.
TRUMP APPROVALS
On the way President Trump is handling his job, 49 percent of likely voters approve and 48 percent disapprove. Forty-eight percent of likely voters approve of his handling of the response to the coronavirus and 50 percent disapprove.
2020 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In this pre-debate poll, President Trump receives 48 percent support among likely voters, while former Vice President Joe Biden receives 47 percent support. This compares to a September 16th poll when Trump had 51 percent to Biden's 45 percent, a change which is not statistically significant.
Both candidates receive similar favorability ratings as likely voters are roughly divided on both. Forty- nine percent of likely voters give Biden an unfavorable rating, while 46 percent say favorable. Trump gets an evenly split 48 - 48 percent favorability rating.
Likely voters are also divided on who would do a better job handling two issues that have emerged in the wake of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death: Supreme Court nominations and health care.
On who would do a better job handling Supreme Court nominations, 50 percent say Trump and 47 percent say Biden.
On who would do a better job handling health care, 48 percent say Biden and 47 percent say Trump.
SUPREME COURT, ACA, & ABORTION
On the question of who should fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court, 49 percent say it should be the winner of the presidential election, while 47 percent say it should be President Trump before the election.
"POTUS picked the SCOTUS nominee, but almost half of likely voters say before the election it's not Trump's call on who to install," added Malloy.
With the Supreme Court set to hear arguments in November challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, half of likely voters (50 percent) say they would like to see the law remain in place, while 43 percent say they would like to see it ended.
A majority of likely voters (55 percent) agree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion, while 37 percent disagree.
1,123 likely South Carolina voters were surveyed from September 23 - 27 with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 47% 5% 99% 52% 40% 52% 46% 28% Trump 48 94 - 39 54 42 50 68 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 2 - DK/NA 4 1 1 7 5 4 2 4 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Biden 47% 49% 47% 29% 39% 35% 87% Trump 45 48 51 68 56 61 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 1 1 DK/NA 7 2 2 3 4 3 4 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Biden Trump Mind made up 97% 96% 98% Might change 2 3 2 DK/NA 1 2 - -
Question 2. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No In person 71% 88% 56% 67% 75% 68% 69% 80% Mail/Absentee ballot 25 9 40 31 22 28 29 17 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 3 4 3 3 4 2 3 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk In person 80% 76% 55% 79% 74% 76% 55% Mail/Absentee ballot 18 21 41 20 22 22 41 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 4 4 1 4 3 4 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Biden Trump In person 54% 88% Mail/Absentee ballot 42 9 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 4 3 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 46% 5% 97% 49% 39% 52% 45% 26% Unfavorable 49 93 1 43 55 44 52 69 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 1 7 3 4 3 4 REFUSED 2 - 1 1 2 1 - - AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 44% 49% 47% 27% 39% 33% 87% Unfavorable 48 47 50 69 57 63 8 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 2 4 4 4 3 REFUSED 2 - 1 - - - 2 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 48% 93% - 41% 53% 44% 48% 69% Unfavorable 48 6 97 55 43 52 50 30 Hvn't hrd enough 1 - 1 3 1 1 1 1 REFUSED 3 - 2 2 3 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 46% 47% 51% 66% 57% 61% 11% Unfavorable 51 50 47 33 42 38 84 Hvn't hrd enough - 2 1 1 1 1 1 REFUSED 3 1 1 1 1 1 4 -
Question 5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Jaime Harrison the Democrat and Lindsey Graham the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Jaime Harrison the Democrat or Lindsey Graham the Republican?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Harrison 48% 5% 97% 54% 42% 53% 46% 30% Graham 48 94 2 39 54 43 51 68 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - 2 - DK/NA 3 1 - 6 4 3 1 2 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Harrison 52% 47% 48% 31% 41% 36% 88% Graham 44 49 51 67 57 61 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 - DK/NA 3 3 1 1 2 2 4 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q14................... Health Corona- Racial Law + Suprm Econ care virus Inequl Order Court Harrison 19% 84% 90% 90% 5% 46% Graham 78 14 8 5 92 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 4 - - DK/NA 3 3 2 1 3 - -
Question 5a. (If candidate chosen q5) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q5.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q5 Tot Harrison Graham Mind made up 95% 96% 94% Might change 4 4 5 DK/NA - - 1 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Jaime Harrison favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 48% 9% 97% 50% 41% 54% 47% 31% Unfavorable 35 68 1 30 39 32 38 49 Hvn't hrd enough 14 20 2 18 18 11 14 18 REFUSED 3 3 - 2 3 2 1 3 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 49% 47% 51% 31% 42% 37% 85% Unfavorable 33 37 35 47 42 44 6 Hvn't hrd enough 16 15 11 21 13 17 8 REFUSED 3 - 2 1 3 2 1 -
Question 7. Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 43% 86% 3% 33% 48% 39% 44% 61% Unfavorable 51 11 95 60 46 56 54 33 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 3 5 3 4 1 5 REFUSED 2 1 - 2 2 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 35% 45% 48% 61% 50% 55% 7% Unfavorable 56 52 49 35 46 41 86 Hvn't hrd enough 8 2 2 4 3 3 6 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 1 - -
Question 8. Would you say that - Jaime Harrison is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 51% 18% 94% 52% 43% 57% 52% 35% No 25 43 3 24 30 21 26 34 DK/NA 24 39 3 24 27 21 22 32 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 48% 53% 57% 36% 46% 41% 86% No 29 24 21 35 27 30 5 DK/NA 23 23 23 30 27 28 9 -
Question 9. Would you say that - Lindsey Graham is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 40% 75% 4% 34% 44% 36% 44% 53% No 50 14 93 57 45 55 49 36 DK/NA 10 12 3 10 11 9 8 11 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 31% 42% 46% 53% 46% 49% 10% No 58 50 47 37 44 41 82 DK/NA 11 8 8 10 10 10 8 -
Question 10. Would you say that - Jaime Harrison cares about average people, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 59% 30% 98% 58% 52% 64% 60% 43% No 25 46 1 23 27 23 25 35 DK/NA 16 24 1 19 20 12 15 22 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 60% 60% 60% 44% 54% 50% 93% No 23 26 25 33 30 31 3 DK/NA 16 14 15 24 16 19 4 -
Question 11. Would you say that - Lindsey Graham cares about average people, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes 44% 80% 5% 39% 46% 42% 45% 59% No 50 13 91 56 45 53 51 34 DK/NA 7 7 4 6 9 5 4 7 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 37% 46% 48% 57% 51% 54% 14% No 54 50 48 37 44 41 80 DK/NA 9 4 4 6 5 6 6 -
Question 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS................................................ WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No WhtEvang Approve 49% 93% 1% 41% 54% 44% 49% 69% 82% Disapprove 48 5 97 56 43 53 49 28 15 DK/NA 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 44% 48% 51% 68% 57% 62% 9% Disapprove 52 50 46 31 40 36 87 DK/NA 4 2 2 1 3 2 3 -
Question 13. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Republican Party 49% 95% 1% 42% 55% 45% 53% 70% Democratic Party 44 4 98 47 37 50 43 24 DK/NA 6 - 1 10 8 5 4 6 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Republican Party 46% 49% 52% 69% 58% 63% 8% Democratic Party 42 48 46 25 37 32 87 DK/NA 12 3 2 6 5 5 5 -
Question 14. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for United States Senator: the economy, immigration, health care, climate change, the coronavirus pandemic, racial inequality, law and order, or the Supreme Court?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 21% 34% 8% 19% 26% 17% 26% 24% Immigration 2 3 1 1 1 3 2 3 Health care 13 4 23 13 11 14 9 12 Climate change 3 1 5 5 5 2 6 2 Coronavirus 14 4 31 12 9 18 12 6 Racial inequality 10 2 18 12 9 10 10 4 Law and order 20 36 3 17 22 18 17 29 Supreme Court 12 11 10 14 11 12 15 13 DK/NA 6 5 4 8 6 5 3 7 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Economy 25% 22% 16% 32% 19% 25% 9% Immigration 1 2 2 1 4 3 - Health care 13 11 16 8 13 11 21 Climate change 4 2 4 5 3 4 2 Coronavirus 8 17 18 5 11 9 30 Racial inequality 15 10 4 5 8 6 22 Law and order 20 17 23 27 22 25 6 Supreme Court 11 14 10 12 14 13 6 DK/NA 3 4 7 4 6 5 3 -
Question 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 48% 92% 4% 39% 54% 43% 48% 69% Disapprove 50 6 96 58 43 55 49 30 DK/NA 2 1 - 3 3 2 3 1 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 43% 51% 49% 67% 56% 61% 8% Disapprove 54 49 49 31 42 37 91 DK/NA 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 -
Question 16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling health care: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 47% 92% 1% 39% 53% 42% 50% 67% Biden 48 5 99 55 42 53 46 29 DK/NA 4 3 - 6 4 4 4 4 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 44% 49% 50% 66% 55% 60% 10% Biden 51 50 48 31 39 36 88 DK/NA 5 2 2 3 5 4 2 -
Question 17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling Supreme Court nominations: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Trump 50% 95% 1% 43% 55% 45% 51% 70% Biden 47 4 98 52 40 53 45 28 DK/NA 3 1 1 5 4 2 4 2 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Trump 46% 50% 52% 69% 58% 63% 10% Biden 51 47 47 29 39 34 88 DK/NA 3 3 1 3 3 3 2 -
Question 18. In general, would you like to see the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, remain in place, or would you like to see Obamacare ended?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Remain in place 50% 8% 97% 59% 42% 57% 49% 30% Ended 43 85 2 33 50 37 44 62 DK/NA 6 6 1 8 8 5 6 8 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Remain in place 52% 53% 51% 29% 44% 37% 93% Ended 42 42 43 64 49 55 5 DK/NA 6 6 6 7 7 7 1 -
Question 19. In general, do you agree or disagree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Agree 55% 24% 86% 65% 52% 59% 63% 42% Disagree 37 66 11 27 40 35 33 48 DK/NA 8 11 3 8 8 7 4 9 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 56% 57% 54% 46% 54% 51% 72% Disagree 40 34 38 48 38 42 24 DK/NA 3 9 8 6 8 7 5 -
Question 20. Which comes closer to your point of view regarding the Supreme Court vacancy created by the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg: the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled by the winner of the presidential election, or the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled by President Trump before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Election winner 49% 6% 97% 56% 42% 55% 46% 30% President Trump 47 89 1 42 53 42 52 67 DK/NA 4 5 1 2 5 3 2 3 AGE IN YRS....... WHITE..... 18-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Election winner 52% 50% 48% 29% 41% 36% 91% President Trump 43 49 49 68 56 61 7 DK/NA 4 1 3 3 3 3 2 CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Biden Trump Election winner 95% 5% President Trump 3 93 DK/NA 2 3