Georgia Governor's Race: Too Close To Call, Quinnipiac University Georgia Poll Finds; Georgia Senate Race: Warnock Leads Walker 52% - 46%
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The Georgia governor's race is too close to call as 50 percent of likely voters support Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and 48 percent support Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in Georgia released today.
This is Quinnipiac University's first poll of likely voters in Georgia's 2022 election and cannot be compared to results of earlier polls of registered voters.
Republicans (98 - 1 percent) back Kemp, while Democrats (97 - 2 percent) back Abrams. Independents are split, with 50 percent backing Abrams and 48 percent backing Kemp.
Nearly all likely voters (94 percent) who support a candidate in the race for governor say their minds are made up about how they will cast their vote, while 5 percent say they might change their minds before the election.
Fifty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Brian Kemp, while 43 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Likely voters are split in their opinion of Stacey Abrams, as 47 percent have a favorable opinion of her and 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her.
"No cushion and no comfort zone for either candidate as the Georgia governor's race roars to a finish and with the vast majority of voters saying they've already made their choice, there's little wiggle room for either candidate," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
SENATE RACE
In the race for U.S. Senate in Georgia, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock leads Republican challenger Herschel Walker 52 - 46 percent.
Democrats (97 - 3 percent) and independents (55 - 41 percent) back Warnock, while Republicans (91 - 6 percent) back Walker.
Nearly all likely voters (96 percent) who support a candidate in the Senate race say their minds are made up about how they will cast their vote, while 4 percent say they might change their minds before the election.
Fifty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Raphael Warnock, while 44 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Forty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Herschel Walker, while 51 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
"Herschel Walker is down but not out of the race for Senate. However, incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock rides the overwhelming support of African Americans and wins big on favorability, the catchall polling measurement for everything from character to potential job performance," added Malloy.
Nineteen percent of likely voters say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express support for Joe Biden, while 29 percent say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express opposition to Joe Biden, and 50 percent say Joe Biden will not be a factor in their vote.
Fourteen percent of likely voters say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express support for Donald Trump, while 18 percent say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express opposition to Donald Trump, and 67 percent say Donald Trump will not be a factor in their vote.
MOST URGENT ISSUE
Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing Georgia today, inflation (41 percent) ranks first among likely voters followed by abortion (12 percent), election laws (12 percent), and gun violence (12 percent).
There are big differences by party identification.
Among Republicans, inflation (73 percent) ranks first with no other issue reaching double digits.
Among Democrats, the top issues are abortion (23 percent), election laws (17 percent), racial inequality (17 percent), gun violence (14 percent), and health care (12 percent).
Among independents, inflation (43 percent) ranks first followed by election laws (13 percent), abortion (12 percent), and gun violence (12 percent).
"What troubles Georgians most? It varies by party. Republicans and independents say it's inflation. For Democrats, it's abortion," added Malloy.
MIDTERM ELECTIONS: ABORTION
More than 8 in 10 likely voters (81 percent) say when thinking about this year's midterm elections, it's either very important (57 percent) or somewhat important (24 percent) that a political candidate shares their view on abortion, while 17 percent say it's either not so important (8 percent) or not important at all (9 percent).
CASTING BALLOTS
For the 2022 general elections, a majority of likely voters (54 percent) plan to vote in person at an early voting location, 33 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day, and 12 percent plan to vote early by mail or absentee ballot.
JOB APPROVALS
Job approval ratings for Georgia elected officials...
- Governor Brian Kemp: 51 percent approve, while 44 percent disapprove;
- Senator Raphael Warnock: 52 percent approve, while 44 percent disapprove;
- Senator Jon Ossoff: 48 percent approve, while 40 percent disapprove.
Forty-four percent of likely voters approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, while 53 percent disapprove.
1,278 likely Georgia voters were surveyed from September 8th - 12th with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Stacey Abrams the Democrat and Brian Kemp the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Abrams 48% 1% 97% 50% 41% 54% 37% 19% Kemp 50 98 2 48 56 44 62 80 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Abrams 58% 48% 51% 43% 22% 30% 26% 91% Kemp 41 50 45 56 77 69 73 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - - 2 - - 1 - 1 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 - MOST URGENT ISSUE FACING GEORGIA Q14 Abor- Infla- Elect Gun tion tion Laws Violence Abrams 83% 11% 69% 70% Kemp 17 88 30 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 - 1 2 REFUSED - - - - HOW IMPORTANT A CANDIDATE SHARES VIEW ON ABORTION Q15 Very Smwht NotSo NotImp Imprnt Imprnt Imprnt AtAll Abrams 63% 41% 12% 14% Kemp 36 56 87 85 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 - - REFUSED - 2 - - VOTING METHOD Q16..................... InPersonOn Mail/ InPersonAt ElectionDay Absentee EarlyVtLoc Abrams 28% 73% 56% Kemp 70 23 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 2 1 REFUSED 1 1 1 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Abrams Kemp Mind made up 94% 94% 93% Might change 5 4 6 DK/NA 1 2 1 -
Question 2. Is your opinion of Brian Kemp favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 50% 92% 9% 48% 57% 44% 59% 76% Unfavorable 43 5 83 42 38 48 39 20 Hvn't hrd enough 5 2 7 5 5 5 2 4 REFUSED 2 - 1 5 1 3 - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 40% 51% 47% 56% 74% 63% 68% 15% Unfavorable 54 44 46 39 23 35 29 73 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 5 4 3 2 3 8 REFUSED - 2 2 1 - - - 4 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Stacey Abrams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 47% 1% 93% 49% 42% 51% 37% 18% Unfavorable 46 92 3 43 50 43 58 78 Hvn't hrd enough 5 6 4 6 6 5 3 3 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 56% 48% 48% 43% 22% 29% 26% 87% Unfavorable 36 42 46 55 72 66 69 5 Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 4 2 5 4 4 7 REFUSED 1 3 2 - 1 - 1 1 -
Question 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Raphael Warnock the Democrat and Herschel Walker the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Warnock 52% 6% 97% 55% 45% 57% 43% 23% Walker 46 91 3 41 51 41 54 74 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 1 - 3 2 1 1 1 REFUSED - - - - 1 - - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Warnock 64% 53% 52% 48% 26% 36% 31% 92% Walker 34 44 45 50 71 62 66 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 1 1 2 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 2 2 1 2 1 1 - REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 - - - MOST URGENT ISSUE FACING GEORGIA Q14 Abor- Infla- Elect Gun tion tion Laws Violence Warnock 84% 15% 69% 80% Walker 13 81 31 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 2 - 1 REFUSED - - - - HOW IMPORTANT A CANDIDATE SHARES VIEW ON ABORTION Q15 Very Smwht NotSo NotImp Imprnt Imprnt Imprnt AtAll Warnock 64% 47% 15% 22% Walker 35 50 79 73 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 4 5 REFUSED - 1 1 - VOTING METHOD Q16..................... InPersonOn Mail/ InPersonAt ElectionDay Absentee EarlyVtLoc Warnock 29% 75% 60% Walker 66 22 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 1 1 REFUSED - 1 1 -
Question 4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4 Tot Warnock Walker Mind made up 96% 97% 94% Might change 4 3 4 DK/NA 1 - 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Herschel Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 40% 82% 5% 30% 45% 36% 43% 67% Unfavorable 51 10 90 58 46 56 48 26 Hvn't hrd enough 8 7 4 10 8 8 9 7 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 22% 41% 39% 45% 61% 54% 57% 7% Unfavorable 60 52 54 49 30 39 34 86 Hvn't hrd enough 18 5 6 5 8 8 8 6 REFUSED - 2 1 - 1 - 1 1 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Raphael Warnock favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 50% 6% 93% 55% 45% 55% 43% 22% Unfavorable 44 89 2 39 49 40 54 73 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 5 4 5 5 3 4 REFUSED 1 - - 2 1 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 59% 52% 52% 47% 27% 34% 30% 90% Unfavorable 31 42 43 49 69 62 65 4 Hvn't hrd enough 9 4 4 4 3 5 4 6 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 - - 1 -
Question 7. Will one reason for your vote for United States Senator be to express support for Donald Trump, to express opposition to Donald Trump, or will Donald Trump not be a factor in your vote?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 14% 33% - 9% 14% 13% 10% 27% Opposition 18 1 40 15 16 20 19 9 Not important factor 67 64 59 75 69 66 70 63 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Support 11% 13% 11% 20% 20% 19% 19% 3% Opposition 25 15 14 21 11 15 13 29 Not important factor 62 70 74 58 69 65 67 67 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 -
Question 8. Will one reason for your vote for United States Senator be to express support for Joe Biden, to express opposition to Joe Biden, or will Joe Biden not be a factor in your vote?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 19% 1% 43% 12% 16% 22% 9% 7% Opposition 29 60 2 24 31 27 34 48 Not important factor 50 37 53 63 53 48 57 44 DK/NA 2 2 2 - 1 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Support 19% 11% 24% 20% 5% 10% 8% 41% Opposition 25 24 27 34 42 43 43 5 Not important factor 56 65 47 45 52 46 49 52 DK/NA - - 3 1 1 1 1 2 -
Question 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Kemp is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 51% 92% 10% 49% 59% 45% 61% 77% Disapprove 44 6 86 44 36 51 37 19 DK/NA 4 2 3 6 4 4 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 45% 52% 47% 58% 74% 67% 70% 16% Disapprove 50 44 49 39 21 31 26 81 DK/NA 5 4 4 3 5 2 3 3 -
Question 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Ossoff is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 48% 5% 90% 52% 42% 52% 39% 24% Disapprove 40 74 6 37 46 34 48 60 DK/NA 13 21 4 11 12 13 12 17 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 52% 49% 50% 47% 26% 33% 30% 84% Disapprove 36 42 36 41 61 50 55 8 DK/NA 12 9 14 12 13 17 15 8 -
Question 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Raphael Warnock is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 52% 7% 97% 56% 45% 58% 43% 25% Disapprove 44 90 2 40 51 39 55 71 DK/NA 3 3 1 4 4 3 2 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 63% 52% 55% 47% 26% 37% 32% 93% Disapprove 31 45 43 50 69 61 65 5 DK/NA 6 3 2 3 5 2 4 1 -
Question 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 44% 2% 90% 44% 36% 50% 36% 17% Disapprove 53 97 7 53 61 46 62 81 DK/NA 3 1 3 3 3 4 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 39% 43% 48% 43% 20% 30% 25% 83% Disapprove 59 52 49 55 78 69 73 14 DK/NA 2 5 3 2 2 2 2 3 -
Question 13. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 38% 81% 3% 29% 40% 36% 40% 65% Unfavorable 54 12 90 63 51 57 54 28 Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 6 4 4 4 3 2 REFUSED 4 4 1 5 5 3 3 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 27% 36% 38% 41% 56% 54% 55% 7% Unfavorable 67 55 54 51 37 40 38 84 Hvn't hrd enough 4 5 4 4 3 2 2 7 REFUSED 2 5 3 4 4 4 4 2 -
Question 14. In your opinion, what is the most urgent issue facing Georgia today: abortion, COVID-19, inflation, climate change, health care, election laws, racial inequality, or gun violence?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Abortion 12% 4% 23% 12% 7% 17% 13% 6% COVID-19 1 - 2 - 2 - - 1 Inflation 41 73 8 43 49 34 52 62 Climate change 2 - 4 3 3 2 4 1 Health care 7 2 12 8 5 9 7 5 Election laws 12 9 17 13 13 12 12 8 Racial inequality 7 1 17 4 6 8 3 3 Gun violence 12 6 14 12 10 13 6 9 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 3 3 4 2 3 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Abortion 13% 17% 13% 10% 5% 13% 9% 18% COVID-19 2 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 Inflation 49 44 39 40 65 48 56 13 Climate change 5 - 3 2 2 2 2 2 Health care 10 11 6 5 5 6 6 11 Election laws 8 9 16 13 9 12 11 18 Racial inequality 4 6 10 6 2 4 3 16 Gun violence 8 7 10 17 7 8 8 18 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) - 3 1 5 2 5 4 2 DK/NA - 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 -
Question 15. Thinking about this year's midterm elections, how important is it to you that a political candidate shares your view on abortion; very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Very important 57% 43% 82% 47% 48% 65% 53% 48% Somewhat important 24 26 13 31 28 21 23 27 Not so important 8 15 1 10 10 7 11 12 Not important at all 9 14 3 11 14 6 13 10 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Very important 60% 57% 56% 60% 43% 56% 49% 70% Somewhat important 25 23 24 24 30 22 26 20 Not so important - 10 11 6 12 13 12 2 Not important at all 14 9 7 9 14 8 11 6 DK/NA - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -
Question 16. Thinking about the 2022 general elections, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote in person at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No In person/Elect. Day 33% 45% 19% 29% 39% 27% 39% 42% Mail/Absentee 12 5 21 11 10 14 11 6 In person/Early vote 54 47 60 59 49 58 50 50 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk In person/Elect. Day 38% 35% 32% 27% 42% 40% 41% 18% Mail/Absentee 14 3 10 17 7 8 8 19 In person/Early vote 48 61 57 54 48 50 49 63 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA - 1 1 2 2 1 2 -