Dems Lead By Double Digits In CT Governor And Senate Races, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; Women Are A Key Factor In Both Races
Share
In Connecticut's race for governor, Democratic incumbent Ned Lamont leads his Republican challenger Bob Stefanowski 57 - 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in Connecticut released today.
This is Quinnipiac University's first poll of likely voters in Connecticut's 2022 election and cannot be compared to results of earlier polls of registered voters.
Democrats (97 - 3 percent) back Lamont, while Republicans (82 - 17 percent) and independents (51 - 44 percent) back Stefanowski.
There is a big gender gap. Women support Lamont 63 - 35 percent. Men are divided, with 50 percent supporting Lamont and 47 percent supporting Stefanowski.
Likely voters give Lamont a positive 54 - 36 percent favorability rating.
They give Stefanowski a negative 33 - 39 percent favorability rating with roughly one-quarter (27 percent) saying they haven't heard enough about him.
An overwhelming majority of likely voters (84 percent) who support a candidate in the race for governor say their minds are made up about how they will cast their vote, while 15 percent say they might change their minds before the election.
"Seventeen points is by any measure a huge lead. Barring a calamity, it certainly looks like a cruise control ride up I-91 and back to the statehouse in Hartford for Governor Lamont," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Doug Schwartz.
SENATE RACE
In the race for U.S. Senate in Connecticut, Democratic incumbent Richard Blumenthal, who's seeking a third term, leads Republican challenger Leora Levy 57 - 40 percent.
Democrats (97 - 2 percent) back Blumenthal, while Republicans (87 - 11 percent) back Levy. Independents are divided, with 48 percent backing Levy and 47 percent backing Blumenthal.
Similar to the governor's race, there is a big gender gap. Women support Blumenthal 64 - 33 percent. Men are evenly split, with 48 percent supporting Blumenthal and 48 percent supporting Levy.
Likely voters give Blumenthal a positive 51 - 39 percent favorability rating.
Likely voters give Levy a mixed favorability rating. Twenty-seven percent have a favorable opinion of her, while 29 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her and 44 percent say they haven't heard enough about her.
Similar to the governor's race, an overwhelming majority of likely voters (89 percent) who support a candidate in the Senate race say their minds are made up about how they will cast their vote, while 10 percent say they might change their minds before the election.
BIDEN/TRUMP FACTOR IN SENATE RACE
Nineteen percent of likely voters say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express support for Joe Biden, while 23 percent say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express opposition to Joe Biden, and 57 percent say Joe Biden will not be a factor in their vote.
Ten percent of likely voters say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express support for Donald Trump, while 29 percent say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express opposition to Donald Trump, and 59 percent say Donald Trump will not be a factor in their vote.
Likely voters give Trump a negative 27 - 65 percent favorability rating.
"Is it shaping up to be a big blue state blowout for Blumenthal? GOP Senate candidate and Trump enthusiast Leora Levy certainly gets no assist from Trump's 27 percent favorability rating in the state as Blumenthal gets strong support from women," added Schwartz.
MOST URGENT ISSUE
Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing Connecticut today, inflation (32 percent) ranks first among likely voters followed by taxes (20 percent). No other issue reached double digits.
Among Republicans, inflation (48 percent) ranks first followed by taxes (31 percent).
Among Democrats, the top issues are inflation (20 percent), climate change (14 percent), abortion (12 percent), and health care (10 percent).
Among independents, the top issues are inflation (33 percent) and taxes (26 percent).
JOB APPROVALS
Job approval ratings for Connecticut elected officials...
- Governor Ned Lamont: 58 percent approve, while 36 percent disapprove;
- Senator Richard Blumenthal: 56 percent approve, while 38 percent disapprove;
- Senator Chris Murphy: 54 percent approve, while 35 percent disapprove.
Connecticut likely voters are evenly split on President Joe Biden's job performance with 48 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving.
1,911 likely Connecticut voters were surveyed from September 15th - 19th with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
-
Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Bob Stefanowski the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lamont 57% 17% 97% 44% 50% 63% Stefanowski 40 82 3 51 47 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Lamont 19% 16% 95% 97% 38% 51% Stefanowski 81 83 4 2 58 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - - 1 1 3 3 REFUSED - - - - 1 1 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1............. CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1... Tot Lamont Stefanowski Mind made up 84% 86% 81% Might change 15 13 17 DK/NA 2 1 2 -
Question 2. Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 54% 22% 90% 43% 46% 62% Unfavorable 36 73 2 46 45 29 Hvn't hrd enough 7 3 7 8 6 7 REFUSED 3 2 1 3 3 2 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Bob Stefanowski favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 33% 70% 3% 40% 40% 27% Unfavorable 39 9 68 30 34 43 Hvn't hrd enough 27 20 27 28 24 29 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 1 2 -
Question 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Leora Levy the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Blumenthal 57% 11% 97% 47% 48% 64% Levy 40 87 2 48 48 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 2 1 4 3 3 REFUSED 1 - - - 1 - REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Blumenthal 13% 9% 94% 99% 38% 55% Levy 85 88 4 1 58 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 2 2 1 3 5 REFUSED - - - - 1 - -
Question 4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4 Tot Blumenthal Levy Mind made up 89% 89% 89% Might change 10 10 10 DK/NA 1 1 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 51% 11% 88% 41% 41% 60% Unfavorable 39 81 3 48 50 29 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 8 10 8 10 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Leora Levy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 27% 59% 4% 29% 32% 22% Unfavorable 29 9 51 22 26 31 Hvn't hrd enough 44 32 44 48 41 46 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 -
Question 7. Will one reason for your vote for United States Senator be to express support for Donald Trump, to express opposition to Donald Trump, or will Donald Trump not be a factor in your vote?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 10% 32% 1% 8% 9% 12% Opposition 29 6 53 21 23 34 Not a factor 59 60 46 69 67 53 DK/NA 2 2 - 2 1 2 -
Question 8. Will one reason for your vote for United States Senator be to express support for Joe Biden, to express opposition to Joe Biden, or will Joe Biden not be a factor in your vote?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 19% 3% 41% 9% 16% 22% Opposition 23 58 2 23 25 20 Not a factor 57 38 56 67 58 56 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 1 -
Question 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ned Lamont is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 58% 24% 93% 48% 50% 65% Disapprove 36 73 3 44 45 28 DK/NA 6 3 4 7 5 6 -
Question 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Murphy is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 54% 19% 89% 45% 49% 58% Disapprove 35 71 4 43 43 28 DK/NA 11 11 8 13 8 14 -
Question 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 56% 14% 92% 47% 47% 63% Disapprove 38 80 3 45 47 30 DK/NA 7 6 5 8 6 8 -
Question 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 48% 7% 90% 34% 40% 55% Disapprove 48 91 7 61 56 41 DK/NA 4 2 3 4 3 4 -
Question 13. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 27% 68% 3% 28% 32% 24% Unfavorable 65 23 96 62 59 70 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 1 5 5 3 REFUSED 4 5 1 5 4 3 -
Question 14. In your opinion, what is the most urgent issue facing Connecticut today: abortion, COVID-19, inflation, climate change, health care, racial inequality, taxes, crime, infrastructure, or schools?
LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Abortion 6% 2% 12% 3% 3% 9% COVID-19 - - 1 - 1 - Inflation 32 48 20 33 33 31 Climate change 8 2 14 7 7 9 Health care 6 1 10 6 5 8 Racial inequality 4 - 7 2 3 4 Taxes 20 31 8 26 25 17 Crime 7 7 7 8 8 7 Infrastructure 5 - 8 5 8 3 Schools 6 3 7 5 4 6 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 2 1 3 1 2 3