Texas Governor's Race: Abbott Leads O'Rourke 53% - 46%, Quinnipiac University Texas Poll Finds; Texas-Mexico Border Ranks As #1 Issue Among Likely Voters
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Six weeks before Election Day, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott has a 7-point lead over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke 53 - 46 percent in the Texas governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in Texas released today.
This is Quinnipiac's first poll of likely voters in Texas' 2022 election and cannot be compared to earlier polls of registered voters.
Republicans support Abbott 96 - 3 percent, while Democrats support O'Rourke 96 - 4 percent. Among independents, 53 percent support Abbott, while 46 percent support O'Rourke.
"The race for the top job in Austin leans toward Abbott, who has very strong support from white Texans, particularly white men, while O'Rourke has overwhelming appeal among Black voters and strong support among young voters," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Nearly all likely voters (96 percent) who support a candidate in the race for governor say their minds are made up about how they will cast their vote, while 3 percent say they might change their minds before the election.
Likely voters are split in their opinion of Abbott, as 50 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 47 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
O'Rourke receives a negative favorability rating, as 44 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Likely voters were asked who would do a better job handling four issues...
- the economy: 56 percent say Abbott, while 41 percent say O'Rourke;
- the situation at the Mexican border: 54 percent say Abbott, while 43 percent say O'Rourke;
- gun policy: 53 percent say Abbott, while 44 percent say O'Rourke;
- abortion: 48 percent say O'Rourke, while 46 percent say Abbott.
MOST URGENT ISSUE
Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing Texas today, the Texas-Mexico border (38 percent) ranks first followed by abortion (17 percent) and inflation (11 percent).
There are big differences by party identification.
Among Republicans, the Texas-Mexico border (66 percent) ranks first followed by inflation (20 percent). No other issue reached double digits.
Among Democrats, abortion (36 percent) ranks first followed by gun policy (16 percent) and election laws (12 percent).
Among independents, the Texas-Mexico border (37 percent) ranks first followed by abortion (16 percent). No other issue reached double digits.
ABBOTT BUSING MIGRANTS NORTH
Likely voters are divided on Governor Greg Abbott busing migrants in Texas to Democratic led cities and states and using state funds to do it, with 51 percent approving of his actions and 47 percent disapproving of his actions. Republicans approve 92 - 6 percent, while Democrats disapprove 94 - 5 percent. Independents are divided, with 51 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving of Abbott's actions.
"With 1,254 miles of border and a steady surge of immigrants, Texans can't help but have the border top of mind. But when it comes to loading asylum seekers onto buses and exporting them to other states, likely voters are divided," added Malloy.
ABORTION
A majority of likely voters (53 percent) disagree with the Supreme Court decision overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision which had established a woman's right to an abortion, while 43 percent agree with the decision.
Democrats (94 - 6 percent) and independents (52 - 44 percent) disagree with the decision, while Republicans (75 - 21 percent) agree with the decision.
Women (64 - 34 percent) disagree with the decision, while men (54 - 40 percent) agree with the decision.
JOB APPROVALS
Job approval ratings for Texas elected officials...
- Governor Greg Abbott: 51 percent approve, while 47 percent disapprove;
- Senator Ted Cruz: 49 percent approve, while 48 percent disapprove;
- Senator John Cornyn: 36 percent approve, while 49 percent disapprove.
Likely voters give President Joe Biden a negative 39 - 57 percent job approval rating.
TRUMP FAVORABILITY
Likely voters give Donald Trump a negative 44 - 51 percent favorability rating.
CASTING BALLOTS
For the 2022 general elections, two-thirds of likely voters (66 percent) plan to vote in person at an early voting location, 25 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day, and 8 percent plan to vote early by mail or absentee ballot.
1,327 likely Texas voters were surveyed from September 22nd - 26th with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No O'Rourke 46% 3% 96% 46% 34% 55% 43% 30% Abbott 53 96 4 53 64 44 56 69 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 2 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - - - - - - - - REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp O'Rourke 59% 43% 42% 49% 27% 42% 35% 88% 49% Abbott 39 53 57 49 73 56 64 10 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - - - - - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - - - 1 - - - 1 - REFUSED - 1 1 - - 1 1 - 1 VOTING METHOD Q16..................... InPersonOn Mail/ InPersonAt ElectionDay Absentee EarlyVtLoc O'Rourke 22% 64% 53% Abbott 75 36 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - - - REFUSED 1 - 1 -
Question 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot O'Rourke Abbott Mind made up 96% 97% 96% Might change 3 3 3 DK/NA 1 1 2 -
Question 2. Is your opinion of Greg Abbott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 50% 94% 4% 48% 60% 42% 54% 65% Unfavorable 47 5 95 47 37 55 45 32 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 - 3 2 1 1 1 REFUSED 2 - - 2 1 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 36% 50% 53% 49% 69% 54% 61% 6% 46% Unfavorable 60 47 45 49 29 44 37 89 51 Hvn't hrd enough 5 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 2 REFUSED - 2 2 2 1 1 1 4 1 -
Question 3. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 44% 6% 94% 41% 34% 53% 42% 30% Unfavorable 50 90 5 49 62 41 55 66 Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 1 9 3 5 2 3 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 59% 42% 41% 49% 26% 41% 34% 80% 52% Unfavorable 35 54 53 46 72 54 61 8 44 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 4 3 2 4 3 9 4 REFUSED - 1 1 2 - 2 1 3 - -
Question 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Abbott is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 51% 95% 4% 48% 61% 43% 55% 67% Disapprove 47 3 96 49 37 55 45 31 DK/NA 2 1 - 3 1 2 - 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 35% 51% 54% 49% 71% 56% 62% 7% 45% Disapprove 61 46 44 49 28 43 36 92 51 DK/NA 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 -
Question 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Cruz is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 49% 91% 5% 46% 61% 40% 51% 65% Disapprove 48 7 94 51 37 57 47 32 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 38% 50% 52% 47% 69% 52% 60% 8% 45% Disapprove 61 47 45 51 29 45 38 86 55 DK/NA 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 6 - -
Question 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Cornyn is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 36% 59% 14% 36% 42% 32% 42% 43% Disapprove 49 24 75 49 42 54 47 40 DK/NA 15 17 11 15 16 14 11 17 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 24% 33% 39% 38% 44% 42% 43% 11% 32% Disapprove 59 46 53 46 39 45 42 75 52 DK/NA 17 21 8 16 18 13 15 14 16 -
Question 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 39% 3% 89% 36% 30% 45% 40% 27% Disapprove 57 96 10 56 66 50 58 71 DK/NA 4 - 1 8 3 5 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 37% 36% 38% 49% 23% 40% 32% 81% 35% Disapprove 56 59 57 51 75 58 66 13 57 DK/NA 7 6 5 - 2 2 2 6 8 -
Question 8. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 44% 87% 4% 38% 51% 38% 41% 63% Unfavorable 51 10 95 55 42 58 55 35 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 - 3 2 2 2 2 REFUSED 3 1 1 4 4 2 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 34% 46% 47% 40% 60% 50% 54% 9% 38% Unfavorable 62 48 49 55 36 48 43 90 53 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 2 4 2 2 2 1 3 REFUSED 3 4 2 1 2 - 1 - 6 -
Question 9. In your opinion, what is the most urgent issue facing Texas today: COVID-19, inflation, climate change, the Texas-Mexico border, health care, election laws, racial inequality, schools, crime, abortion, taxes, or gun policy?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No COVID-19 - - 1% - - - - - Inflation 11 20 2 9 14 8 13 11 Climate change 3 - 4 3 3 2 3 2 Texas-Mexico border 38 66 5 37 43 34 36 52 Health care 3 1 5 3 3 3 3 2 Election laws 6 1 12 5 5 6 5 5 Racial inequality 3 - 5 3 2 3 1 2 Schools 4 2 6 5 4 4 8 3 Crime 3 3 2 4 3 2 2 3 Abortion 17 4 36 16 11 21 19 13 Taxes 1 - 1 2 2 - 1 - Gun policy 8 1 16 9 4 12 7 5 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 4 4 4 3 1 1 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp COVID-19 - - 1% - - - - 1% - Inflation 10 17 8 9 14 9 12 6 12 Climate change 8 1 2 3 3 3 3 1 3 Texas-Mexico border 25 36 43 37 52 41 46 4 36 Health care 5 3 2 3 2 3 2 5 5 Election laws 4 5 6 7 6 5 5 8 6 Racial inequality 3 3 3 3 - 2 1 15 1 Schools 7 6 2 3 4 5 5 5 3 Crime - 3 3 5 4 2 3 6 1 Abortion 20 16 19 15 9 21 15 24 17 Taxes 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 2 Gun policy 12 7 7 10 4 7 6 12 12 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 1 3 3 2 1 1 10 3 DK/NA - 1 - 1 - 1 1 2 - -
Question 10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Greg Abbott or Beto O'Rourke?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Abbott 56% 98% 8% 57% 67% 47% 58% 69% O'Rourke 41 2 88 39 30 49 39 29 DK/NA 4 1 4 4 3 4 3 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Abbott 47% 57% 58% 50% 73% 58% 65% 14% 55% O'Rourke 49 38 40 45 24 39 33 84 41 DK/NA 4 4 1 5 2 3 3 3 5 -
Question 11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the situation at the Mexican border: Greg Abbott or Beto O'Rourke?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Abbott 54% 96% 5% 56% 66% 45% 57% 68% O'Rourke 43 3 93 41 31 53 42 29 DK/NA 3 1 2 3 4 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Abbott 44% 57% 56% 49% 73% 57% 64% 9% 53% O'Rourke 53 39 42 48 25 41 34 85 44 DK/NA 3 4 2 3 2 2 2 6 3 -
Question 12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling abortion: Greg Abbott or Beto O'Rourke?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Abbott 46% 88% 4% 44% 56% 39% 48% 64% O'Rourke 48 7 94 48 37 56 47 32 DK/NA 6 5 2 7 7 5 5 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Abbott 32% 47% 52% 44% 63% 53% 58% 9% 39% O'Rourke 64 44 45 50 31 43 38 83 54 DK/NA 4 9 3 6 5 4 5 8 7 -
Question 13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling gun policy: Greg Abbott or Beto O'Rourke?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Abbott 53% 96% 4% 54% 65% 44% 55% 70% O'Rourke 44 3 96 44 32 54 44 27 DK/NA 2 1 - 2 3 1 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Abbott 42% 56% 56% 50% 74% 57% 64% 10% 49% O'Rourke 56 38 44 49 24 41 34 89 48 DK/NA 2 5 1 2 3 1 2 2 3 -
Question 14. As you may know, the Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision which had established a woman's right to an abortion. Do you agree or disagree with the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Agree 43% 75% 6% 44% 54% 34% 47% 54% Disagree 53 21 94 52 40 64 48 42 DK/NA 4 3 - 5 6 2 4 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Agree 29% 42% 44% 44% 62% 44% 52% 13% 35% Disagree 66 54 53 54 34 53 44 86 61 DK/NA 6 5 3 3 5 3 4 1 4 -
Question 15. As you may know, Governor Greg Abbott is busing migrants in Texas to Democratic led cities and states, using state funds to do it. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Abbott's actions?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 51% 92% 5% 51% 61% 43% 55% 66% Disapprove 47 6 94 47 37 55 44 33 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 41% 51% 54% 48% 70% 54% 61% 6% 48% Disapprove 55 47 45 51 28 44 37 93 51 DK/NA 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -
Question 16. Thinking about the 2022 general elections, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote in person at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No In person/Elect. Day 25% 31% 11% 27% 29% 21% 20% 30% Mail/Absentee 8 6 13 6 7 9 8 8 In person/Early vote 66 60 76 65 62 69 70 60 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 2 - 2 2 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp In person/Elect. Day 21% 27% 27% 22% 30% 23% 26% 16% 24% Mail/Absentee 8 1 4 19 7 9 8 15 6 In person/Early vote 70 69 68 58 61 67 64 67 70 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 -