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Trump Has Slight Lead Over DeSantis In GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Americans Mixed On Reasons Behind Classified Document Discoveries

Given a list of 14 names of Republicans who either have said they are running for president in 2024 or are seen as potential candidates in a Republican primary, former President Donald Trump receives 42 percent of the vote among Republican and Republican leaning voters followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who receives 36 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. Former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley receives 5 percent, former Vice President Mike Pence receives 4 percent, and former Secretary of State and CIA Director Mike Pompeo receives 4 percent. No other candidate tops 2 percent of the vote.

When the potential field is narrowed to only four candidates, Republican and Republican leaning voters are split between Trump (43 percent) and DeSantis (41 percent), a virtual dead heat. Haley receives 6 percent and Pence receives 4 percent in this hypothetical 4-way Republican primary.

"They are either officially in the hunt or their names are in the GOP conversation, but the early horse race comes down to just two names," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

In a hypothetical general election matchup for president, it is a toss-up between President Biden (48 percent) and former President Trump (46 percent) among all registered voters.

It is also a toss-up between President Biden and Governor DeSantis with 47 percent of registered voters supporting DeSantis and 46 percent supporting Biden.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Registered voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:

  • Joe Biden: 38 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable, 4 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Donald Trump: 37 percent favorable, 57 percent unfavorable, 3 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Ron DeSantis: 37 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable, 26 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Mike Pence: 27 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable, 23 percent haven't heard enough about him;
  • Nikki Haley: 21 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable, 54 percent haven't heard enough about her.

BIDEN APPROVAL RATINGS

President Joe Biden receives a negative 40 - 55 percent job approval rating among registered voters.

Among all Americans, President Biden receives a similar negative 40 - 54 percent job approval rating.

Americans were asked about President Biden's handling of...

  • the situation with the Chinese spy balloon that was recently discovered flying over the United States: 42 percent approve, while 45 percent disapprove;
  • the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine: 42 percent approve, while 49 percent disapprove;
  • foreign policy: 36 percent approve, while 55 percent disapprove;
  • the economy: 35 percent approve, while 59 percent disapprove;
  • immigration issues: 27 percent approve, while 62 percent disapprove.

CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS

When Americans were asked how closely they have been following news about classified documents from President Biden's days as vice president that were found at his home and office and classified documents that were found at the homes of former President Donald Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence from their days in the White House, 30 percent say very closely, 38 percent say somewhat closely, and 32 percent say not too closely.

Sixty-nine percent of Americans think former President Trump intentionally held on to classified documents, while 18 percent think he mistakenly had classified documents in his possession and 13 percent did not offer an opinion.

Democrats (87 - 7 percent), independents (70 - 15 percent), and Republicans (48 - 37 percent) think Trump intentionally held on to classified documents.

Forty-eight percent of Americans think President Biden intentionally held on to classified documents, while 39 percent think he mistakenly had classified documents in his possession and 13 percent did not offer an opinion.

Republicans (71 - 18 percent) and independents (48 - 35 percent) think Biden intentionally held on to classified documents, while Democrats (63 - 28 percent) think Biden mistakenly had classified documents in his possession.

Thirty-seven percent of Americans think former Vice President Mike Pence intentionally held on to classified documents, while 47 percent think he mistakenly had classified documents in his possession and 16 percent did not offer an opinion.

Republicans (50 - 34 percent) and Democrats (56 - 32 percent) think Pence mistakenly had classified documents in his possession. Independents are evenly split, as 40 percent think Pence mistakenly had classified documents in his possession, while 40 percent think he intentionally held on to classified documents.

"Were the top-secret papers taken by design or by mistake? A large majority of Americans figure former President Trump made a conscious decision to take them home, while his V.P., and to some extent his successor, are more apt to be given the benefit of the doubt," added Malloy.

POLICING

More than 6 out of 10 Americans (62 percent) trust the police to do what is right either almost all of the time (22 percent) or most of the time (40 percent), while 36 percent trust the police to do what is right either only some of the time (26 percent) or hardly ever (10 percent).

There are wide racial gaps.

Seventy-two percent of white adults trust the police to do what is right either almost all of the time (27 percent) or most of the time (45 percent), while 27 percent trust the police to do what is right either only some of the time (20 percent) or hardly ever (7 percent).

Thirty-three percent of Black adults trust the police to do what is right either almost all of the time (11 percent) or most of the time (22 percent), while 66 percent trust the police to do what is right either only some of the time (46 percent) or hardly ever (20 percent).

Forty-nine percent of Hispanic adults trust the police to do what is right either almost all of the time (16 percent) or most of the time (33 percent), while 47 percent trust the police to do what is right either only some of the time (33 percent) or hardly ever (14 percent).

A vast majority of Americans (72 percent) say it should be possible to bring civil lawsuits against police officers for actions they have taken on the job, while 20 percent say police officers should be protected from civil lawsuits for actions they have taken on the job.

"Though a majority of Americans in varying degrees trust the police, there is very strong support for accountability and the right to sue them if they cross the line on the job," added Malloy.

ASSAULT WEAPONS BAN

Americans are divided on a nationwide ban on the sale of assault weapons. Forty-seven percent support a ban, while 48 percent oppose it. This compares to a Quinnipiac University poll in July 2022 when 49 percent supported a ban and 45 percent opposed it.

MOST URGENT ISSUE

Inflation (29 percent) outranks all other issues as the most urgent issue facing the country today, followed by immigration (13 percent) and gun violence (11 percent). No other issue reached double digits.

SATISFACTION

Three out of 10 Americans (30 percent) say they are either very satisfied (4 percent) or somewhat satisfied (26 percent) with the way things are going in the nation today. Nearly 7 out of 10 Americans (69 percent) say they are either somewhat dissatisfied (28 percent) or very dissatisfied (41 percent) with the way things are going in the nation today.

This is a higher satisfaction level than a Quinnipiac University poll on November 2, 2022 found, when 19 percent of Americans were either very satisfied (3 percent) or somewhat satisfied (16 percent) and 80 percent were either somewhat dissatisfied (24 percent) or very dissatisfied (56 percent).

1,580 U.S. adults nationwide were surveyed from February 9th - 14th with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The survey included 1,429 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey included 592 Republican and Republican leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

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