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2024 Primary Races: Nearly 3 In 10 Trump Supporters & Half Of Biden Supporters Signal They Are Open To Other Options, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Support Age Limits On Candidates For President & Congress

In the race for the 2024 Republican Party nomination, support for former President Donald Trump now stands at 62 percent among Republican and Republican leaning voters, slightly up from 57 percent support in August, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis receives 12 percent support, down from 18 percent support in August. In today's poll, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy receives 6 percent support, former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence each receive 5 percent support, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott receives 3 percent support, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie receives 2 percent support. All other listed Republican candidates receive less than 2 percent support.

Among Republican and Republican leaning voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, half (50 percent) say they are firmly set on their choice for the Republican nomination no matter what happens leading up to the Republican primary, while 48 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Republican primary.

Among those voters supporting Trump in the Republican primary, 68 percent say they are firmly set on Trump no matter what happens leading up to the Republican primary, while 29 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Republican primary.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

In the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, President Biden receives 73 percent support among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters, environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 11 percent support, and author Marianne Williamson receives 8 percent support.

Among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, 39 percent say they are firmly set on their choice for the Democratic nomination no matter what happens leading up to the Democratic primary, while 58 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.

Among those voters supporting Biden in the Democratic primary, 51 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Democratic primary, while 46 percent say they are firmly set on Biden no matter what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.

"Clearly, loyalty to the two leading candidates in the primaries for president is not written in stone. Roughly one-third of Trump's voters might walk away from him and roughly half from Biden," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

GENERAL ELECTION

In a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 47 percent of registered voters support Biden, while 46 percent support Trump, essentially a dead heat and unchanged from Quinnipiac University's August poll when Biden received 47 percent support and Trump received 46 percent support among registered voters.

When asked who would do a better job responding to a national crisis, 51 percent of registered voters said Trump, while 44 percent said Biden.

"Though neck and neck with Trump in the early horse race to the White House, Biden slips behind in that critical 'what if' scenario, handling a crisis that could affect all Americans," added Malloy.

AGE OF CANDIDATES

Voters 61 - 34 percent support setting a maximum age limit for candidates to be eligible to run for president of the United States. There is strong support among all listed groups. Independents (66 - 28 percent), Democrats (60 - 37 percent), and Republicans (57 - 39 percent) back the idea of setting maximum age limits. As for what the maximum age limit should be for candidates to be eligible to run for president: 30 percent of voters say 70 years old, 19 percent say 75 years old, 5 percent say 80 years old, 2 percent say 85 years old, and 34 percent of voters oppose setting any age limit.

As for candidates to be eligible to run for the United States House of Representatives and Senate, voters 66 - 30 percent support setting a maximum age limit. Independents (71 - 25 percent), Democrats (66 - 32 percent), and Republicans (64 - 33 percent) support setting a maximum age limit for candidates to be eligible to run for Congress.

"In what can only be perceived as a plea for younger blood in the corridors of power, a majority of voters say candidates should be aged out once they cross a certain threshold," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

Voters 68 - 28 percent think that Joe Biden is too old to effectively serve another 4-year term as president, compared to Quinnipiac University's May 24, 2023 poll when voters 65 - 32 percent said that he was too old.

Voters 63 - 34 percent think that Donald Trump is not too old to effectively serve another 4-year term as president, compared to May when voters 59 - 36 percent said that Trump was not too old.

BIDEN

Voters give President Biden a negative 39 - 55 percent job approval rating, unchanged from a negative 39 - 55 percent job approval rating in Quinnipiac University's August poll.

Voters were asked about Biden's handling of...

  • the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine: 43 percent approve, while 51 percent disapprove;
  • prescription drug pricing: 41 percent approve, while 39 percent disapprove;
  • climate change: 36 percent approve, while 53 percent disapprove;
  • the economy: 35 percent approve, while 60 percent disapprove.

ECONOMY

Forty-nine percent of voters say the price of gas and consumer goods is the economic issue that worries them the most right now, while 34 percent say the cost of housing or rent, 9 percent say the stock market, and 4 percent say their job situation. This compares to Quinnipiac University's January 2023 poll when 48 percent said the price of gas and consumer goods, 28 percent said the cost of housing or rent, 14 percent said the stock market, and 5 percent said their job situation.

When voters were asked how likely they think it is that there will be an economic recession in the next year, 33 percent think it is very likely, 40 percent think it is somewhat likely, 19 percent think it is not so likely, and 6 percent think it is not likely at all.

Voters were more pessimistic in a May 2022 Quinnipiac University poll when 46 percent thought an economic recession in the next year was very likely, 39 percent thought it was somewhat likely, 8 percent thought it was not so likely, and 4 percent thought it was not likely at all.

"Make what you will of the dichotomy. Fears of a recession shrink while concern over Biden's handling of the economy lingers in red numbers," added Malloy.

HUNTER BIDEN

Nearly 7 out of 10 voters (69 percent) say they are following news about the Justice Department's investigations into President Biden's son Hunter Biden either very closely (28 percent) or somewhat closely (41 percent), while 30 percent say they are following it not too closely.

About half of voters (49 percent) say the Justice Department's treatment of Hunter Biden has been not tough enough, while 31 percent say it has been fair, and 6 percent say it has been too tough.

A majority of voters (58 percent) say they are following an investigation by House Republicans into Hunter Biden's business dealings with Ukraine and China when his father was vice president either very closely (25 percent) or somewhat closely (33 percent), while 41 percent say they are following it not too closely.

Forty-four percent of voters believe Hunter Biden did something illegal in his business dealings with Ukraine and China when his father was vice president, while 34 percent believe he did something unethical but nothing illegal, 6 percent believe he did not do anything wrong, and 16 percent did not offer an opinion.

Half of voters (50 percent) think Joe Biden was involved in Hunter Biden's business dealings with Ukraine and China while Joe Biden was vice president, while 40 percent think Joe Biden was not involved.

Thirty-five percent of voters believe Joe Biden was involved and did something illegal in Hunter Biden's business dealings with Ukraine and China while Joe Biden was vice president, while 13 percent believe he was involved and did something unethical but nothing illegal, 1 percent believe he was involved but he did not do anything wrong, 11 percent did not offer an opinion, and 40 percent of voters believe Joe Biden was not involved.

"Nearly half of voters believe that, with regard to his son, President Biden crossed the line either ethically or legally," added Malloy.

TRUMP INDICTMENTS

Voters were asked about the charges filed against former President Trump in four separate indictments in state and federal courts. When asked how serious they think the following charges filed against the former president are, they say:

  • attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, including his actions around the time of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021: 56 percent very serious, 8 percent somewhat serious, 8 percent not too serious, and 25 percent not serious at all;
  • attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, including counts of violating the state's RICO statute, the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act: 54 percent very serious, 9 percent somewhat serious, 8 percent not too serious, and 25 percent not serious at all;
  • mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House, including obstruction of justice charges: 51 percent very serious, 13 percent somewhat serious, 9 percent not too serious, and 25 percent not serious at all;
  • falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to an adult film star: 32 percent very serious, 23 percent somewhat serious, 14 percent not too serious, and 29 percent not serious at all.

1,910 U.S. adults nationwide were surveyed from September 7th - 11th with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

The survey included 1,726 self-identified registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey included 728 Republican and Republican leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points and 724 Democratic and Democratic leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

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