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PA 2024 Elections: Casey Leads McCormick In U.S. Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Race For The White House: Biden vs. Trump Matchup Barely Budges

Roughly two weeks after Republican David McCormick announced he would challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, voters give Casey a 50 - 44 percent lead over McCormick, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Pennsylvania released today.

Democrats back Casey 96 - 2 percent, while Republicans back McCormick 89 - 7 percent. Independents are split, with 45 percent supporting McCormick and 44 percent supporting Casey.

Voters have a favorable opinion of Casey 42 - 26 percent with 31 percent saying they haven't heard enough about him.

One-quarter of voters (25 percent) have a favorable opinion of McCormick, while 17 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 57 percent say they haven't heard enough about him.

"David McCormick, who defied former President Trump by refusing to say the 2020 election was stolen, dusts himself off from his previous Senate bid and comes back for more in what is immediately an intensely watched and competitive race with three term incumbent Senator Bob Casey," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.


In the 2024 Republican presidential primary, former President Donald Trump receives 61 percent support among registered Republican voters in Pennsylvania, up from 49 percent support in a Quinnipiac University poll in Pennsylvania in late June. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis receives 14 percent support, down from 25 percent support in June.

Former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley receives 8 percent support, compared to 4 percent support in June. In today's poll, former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie each receive 4 percent support, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy receives 2 percent support, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum each receive 1 percent support. All other listed Republican candidates receive less than one percent support.

"It's certainly not enough for Trump to 'hear footsteps,' but Ron DeSantis may well take note that candidate Nikki Haley is closing in on second position," added Malloy.


In the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, President Joe Biden receives 70 percent support among registered Democratic voters in Pennsylvania, environmentalist and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 17 percent support, and author Marianne Williamson receives 5 percent support, largely unchanged from June.


In a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 47 percent of all registered voters support Trump, while 45 percent support Biden. This compares to June when 47 percent supported Trump and 46 percent supported Biden.

In today's poll, Republicans (90 - 5 percent) and independents (48 - 39 percent) support Trump, while Democrats (93 - 4 percent) support Biden.

Registered voters give both candidates very similar favorability ratings.

Registered voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:

  • Joe Biden: 39 percent favorable, 57 percent unfavorable;
  • Donald Trump: 40 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable.
"Biden vs. Trump: same as it ever was, setting up another likely bare-knuckled brawl between the two candidates in Biden's home state," added Malloy.


Given a list of nine issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, 30 percent of registered voters say the economy, 23 percent say preserving democracy in the United States, and 15 percent say immigration.

Among Republicans, the top issue is the economy (43 percent) followed by immigration (30 percent).

Among Democrats, the top issue is preserving democracy in the United States (41 percent) with the economy (12 percent) and gun violence (12 percent) trailing far behind.

Among independents, the top issues are the economy (39 percent) followed by preserving democracy in the United States (21 percent), and immigration (12 percent).


Job approval ratings for Pennsylvania elected officials:

  • Governor Josh Shapiro: 53 percent approve, 27 percent disapprove, with 19 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Senator Bob Casey: 48 percent approve, 31 percent disapprove, with 21 percent not offering an opinion;
  • Senator John Fetterman: 41 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove, with 11 percent not offering an opinion.

Forty-one percent of voters approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, while 55 percent disapprove.


Forty-six percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Governor Josh Shapiro, while 27 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 27 percent say they haven't heard enough about him.

Thirty-nine percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Senator John Fetterman, while 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 13 percent say they haven't heard enough about him.

1,725 Pennsylvania self-identified registered voters were surveyed from September 28th - October 2nd with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

The survey included 711 self-identified registered Republican voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points and 759 self-identified registered Democratic voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

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