PA 2024 Elections: Casey Leads McCormick In U.S. Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Race For The White House: Biden vs. Trump Matchup Barely Budges
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Roughly two weeks after Republican David McCormick announced he would challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, voters give Casey a 50 - 44 percent lead over McCormick, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Pennsylvania released today.
Democrats back Casey 96 - 2 percent, while Republicans back McCormick 89 - 7 percent. Independents are split, with 45 percent supporting McCormick and 44 percent supporting Casey.
Voters have a favorable opinion of Casey 42 - 26 percent with 31 percent saying they haven't heard enough about him.
One-quarter of voters (25 percent) have a favorable opinion of McCormick, while 17 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 57 percent say they haven't heard enough about him.
"David McCormick, who defied former President Trump by refusing to say the 2020 election was stolen, dusts himself off from his previous Senate bid and comes back for more in what is immediately an intensely watched and competitive race with three term incumbent Senator Bob Casey," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
GOP PRIMARY
In the 2024 Republican presidential primary, former President Donald Trump receives 61 percent support among registered Republican voters in Pennsylvania, up from 49 percent support in a Quinnipiac University poll in Pennsylvania in late June. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis receives 14 percent support, down from 25 percent support in June.
Former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley receives 8 percent support, compared to 4 percent support in June. In today's poll, former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie each receive 4 percent support, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy receives 2 percent support, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum each receive 1 percent support. All other listed Republican candidates receive less than one percent support.
"It's certainly not enough for Trump to 'hear footsteps,' but Ron DeSantis may well take note that candidate Nikki Haley is closing in on second position," added Malloy.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
In the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, President Joe Biden receives 70 percent support among registered Democratic voters in Pennsylvania, environmentalist and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 17 percent support, and author Marianne Williamson receives 5 percent support, largely unchanged from June.
BIDEN VS. TRUMP
In a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 47 percent of all registered voters support Trump, while 45 percent support Biden. This compares to June when 47 percent supported Trump and 46 percent supported Biden.
In today's poll, Republicans (90 - 5 percent) and independents (48 - 39 percent) support Trump, while Democrats (93 - 4 percent) support Biden.
Registered voters give both candidates very similar favorability ratings.
Registered voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
- Joe Biden: 39 percent favorable, 57 percent unfavorable;
- Donald Trump: 40 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable.
"Biden vs. Trump: same as it ever was, setting up another likely bare-knuckled brawl between the two candidates in Biden's home state," added Malloy.
MOST URGENT ISSUE
Given a list of nine issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, 30 percent of registered voters say the economy, 23 percent say preserving democracy in the United States, and 15 percent say immigration.
Among Republicans, the top issue is the economy (43 percent) followed by immigration (30 percent).
Among Democrats, the top issue is preserving democracy in the United States (41 percent) with the economy (12 percent) and gun violence (12 percent) trailing far behind.
Among independents, the top issues are the economy (39 percent) followed by preserving democracy in the United States (21 percent), and immigration (12 percent).
JOB APPROVALS
Job approval ratings for Pennsylvania elected officials:
- Governor Josh Shapiro: 53 percent approve, 27 percent disapprove, with 19 percent not offering an opinion;
- Senator Bob Casey: 48 percent approve, 31 percent disapprove, with 21 percent not offering an opinion;
- Senator John Fetterman: 41 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove, with 11 percent not offering an opinion.
Forty-one percent of voters approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, while 55 percent disapprove.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Forty-six percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Governor Josh Shapiro, while 27 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 27 percent say they haven't heard enough about him.
Thirty-nine percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Senator John Fetterman, while 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 13 percent say they haven't heard enough about him.
1,725 Pennsylvania self-identified registered voters were surveyed from September 28th - October 2nd with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
The survey included 711 self-identified registered Republican voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points and 759 self-identified registered Democratic voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, Larry Elder, Doug Burgum, and Will Hurd for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................ POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY CONSERV..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Trump 61% 80% 61% 42% 57% 64% DeSantis 14 13 13 16 14 13 Haley 8 2 8 12 9 6 Pence 4 - 4 7 4 4 Scott 1 1 1 1 1 2 Hutchinson - - - 1 - - Christie 4 - 2 9 5 3 Ramaswamy 2 - 5 2 4 - Elder - - 1 - 1 - Burgum 1 - 1 - 1 - Hurd - - - 1 - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 3 2 1 5 2 4 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 -
Question 2. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Marianne Williamson, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Biden 70% 80% 75% 64% 73% 67% Kennedy 17 7 13 23 17 17 Williamson 5 9 5 4 4 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 2 2 UNDECIDED(VOL) 5 1 5 5 3 6 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 -
Question 3. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Biden 45% 5% 93% 39% 41% 49% 58% 36% Trump 47 90 4 48 52 43 37 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 - 5 2 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 4 2 3 2 2 UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Biden 47% 46% 43% 54% 40% 48% 44% 67% Trump 43 45 54 42 56 45 50 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 4 UNDECIDED(VOL) 4 1 - 1 - 1 1 8 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1 1 - -
Question 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey the Democrat and David McCormick the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Casey 50% 7% 96% 44% 46% 53% 60% 39% McCormick 44 89 2 45 49 40 38 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 1 - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 4 4 1 7 3 4 1 4 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Casey 53% 52% 44% 57% 42% 51% 47% 77% McCormick 37 44 52 42 54 43 48 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 2 1 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - - - 1 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 8 3 2 1 2 4 3 6 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 1 - -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 39% 5% 85% 30% 33% 45% 49% 32% Unfavorable 57 95 12 64 64 51 49 66 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 REFUSED 2 - 2 2 2 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 35% 40% 37% 51% 31% 44% 38% 61% Unfavorable 60 57 60 47 68 53 60 34 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 - REFUSED 2 3 1 - 1 1 1 5 -
Question 6. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 40% 77% 5% 35% 42% 37% 26% 51% Unfavorable 56 19 94 59 53 59 71 46 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 - 3 3 2 2 1 REFUSED 2 2 - 3 2 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 31% 38% 47% 37% 46% 39% 42% 21% Unfavorable 63 59 51 60 51 59 55 79 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 1 1 2 1 2 - REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 - -
Question 7. Is your opinion of Josh Shapiro favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 46% 19% 77% 41% 42% 49% 59% 39% Unfavorable 27 48 7 25 28 25 23 30 Hvn't hrd enough 27 32 15 33 28 25 17 30 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 33% 46% 45% 60% 43% 50% 47% 55% Unfavorable 27 30 32 17 29 26 27 10 Hvn't hrd enough 37 23 23 21 27 23 25 32 REFUSED 3 1 - 2 2 1 1 2 -
Question 8. Is your opinion of Bob Casey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 42% 12% 78% 36% 39% 44% 53% 34% Unfavorable 26 51 2 27 29 24 26 30 Hvn't hrd enough 31 35 19 36 31 31 20 35 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 24% 48% 43% 52% 38% 44% 41% 58% Unfavorable 16 16 39 29 31 26 28 3 Hvn't hrd enough 60 35 18 17 29 29 29 39 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 - -
Question 9. Is your opinion of John Fetterman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 39% 4% 80% 32% 33% 44% 49% 33% Unfavorable 46 83 9 49 55 39 44 54 Hvn't hrd enough 13 11 11 17 11 16 6 12 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 40% 42% 35% 46% 32% 44% 39% 52% Unfavorable 36 46 56 43 59 43 50 24 Hvn't hrd enough 23 11 9 10 9 11 10 21 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 -
Question 10. Is your opinion of David McCormick favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 25% 47% 4% 27% 29% 21% 25% 28% Unfavorable 17 3 32 14 18 16 26 14 Hvn't hrd enough 57 50 64 58 52 62 49 57 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 18% 22% 33% 26% 32% 22% 27% 10% Unfavorable 10 19 17 23 20 17 18 13 Hvn't hrd enough 71 60 50 51 47 60 54 76 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - -
Question 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Josh Shapiro is handling his job as governor?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 53% 28% 86% 46% 50% 56% 64% 49% Disapprove 27 51 4 29 32 24 22 30 DK/NA 19 21 10 25 18 20 13 21 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 44% 52% 52% 69% 51% 58% 55% 62% Disapprove 26 30 33 18 33 23 27 10 DK/NA 30 18 15 13 17 19 18 28 -
Question 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey is handling his job as United States Senator?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 48% 18% 82% 45% 45% 51% 58% 43% Disapprove 31 58 6 30 37 26 29 35 DK/NA 21 23 13 25 18 23 13 22 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 35% 53% 47% 58% 45% 52% 49% 61% Disapprove 26 24 41 30 39 28 33 11 DK/NA 39 23 12 11 16 21 19 28 -
Question 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Fetterman is handling his job as United States Senator?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 41% 7% 82% 33% 35% 46% 50% 34% Disapprove 48 85 9 52 56 41 43 55 DK/NA 11 8 9 15 9 13 7 11 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 41% 44% 36% 48% 34% 46% 40% 59% Disapprove 45 43 55 43 59 43 50 22 DK/NA 14 13 8 9 7 11 9 20 -
Question 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 41% 6% 85% 31% 34% 47% 51% 32% Disapprove 55 93 11 63 63 48 48 65 DK/NA 4 2 4 6 3 5 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 35% 43% 38% 51% 32% 45% 39% 60% Disapprove 59 54 59 46 66 52 58 31 DK/NA 6 3 3 3 2 3 3 9 -
Question 15. What do you think is the most urgent issue facing the country today: the economy, gun violence, racial inequality, abortion, health care, preserving democracy in the United States, climate change, immigration, or crime?
REGISTERED VOTERS...................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 30% 43% 12% 39% 35% 26% 29% 32% Gun violence 7 2 12 5 5 8 8 4 Racial inequality 4 - 6 4 5 3 2 2 Abortion 4 3 5 5 2 6 3 5 Health care 5 5 6 3 6 5 6 4 Preserving democracy 23 8 41 21 23 22 30 21 Climate change 4 1 8 4 3 5 5 3 Immigration 15 30 2 12 15 15 12 20 Crime 4 5 3 4 5 3 2 4 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 3 1 2 2 2 3 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Economy 36% 36% 29% 22% 37% 26% 31% 22% Gun violence 8 8 4 8 5 6 5 20 Racial inequality 7 6 2 2 1 3 2 9 Abortion 9 3 3 3 2 6 4 4 Health care 8 7 3 3 4 5 4 4 Preserving democracy 12 23 25 31 24 23 24 26 Climate change 8 4 4 4 3 5 4 3 Immigration 6 7 23 19 17 17 17 - Crime 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 9 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 - DK/NA - 2 2 3 1 3 2 2