Swing State Poll 2024: North Carolina: Harris vs. Trump Too Close To Call, Georgia: Trump Has Slight Edge In Tight Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; NC Governor's Race: Stein Leads Robinson 51% - 41%
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NORTH CAROLINA: Harris 49%, Trump 46%, Stein 1%
GEORGIA: Trump 49%, Harris 45%, West 1%, De la Cruz 1%
On the eve of the presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the 2024 race for the White House is close with no clear leader in the two Southeast battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the two states released today.
These are the first surveys of likely voters in North Carolina and Georgia in the 2024 presidential election race by the Quinnipiac University Poll and cannot be compared to results of earlier surveys of registered voters.
"With 32 Electoral votes to offer between them, North Carolina and Georgia loom large among the potential pathways to the presidency and neither state offers a clear-cut favorite," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
NORTH CAROLINA: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris receives 49 percent support, former President Donald Trump receives 46 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 1 percent support. All other listed third-party candidates receive less than 1 percent support.
Republicans 94 - 5 percent back Trump, while Democrats 99 - 1 percent back Harris. Independents are divided, with 47 percent backing Trump and 42 percent backing Harris.
There are wide gaps by gender and race. Men 56 - 38 percent back Trump, while women 60 - 37 percent back Harris. Black likely voters 85 - 13 percent support Harris, while white likely voters 56 - 41 percent support Trump.
In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris receives 50 percent support and Trump receives 47 percent support.
"In 2020, it was Trump over Biden in a squeaker. Tuesday night, in what may be the only debate, Kamala Harris will try to flip North Carolina, an electoral heavyweight," added Malloy.
NORTH CAROLINA: PERSONAL TRAITS
Likely voters were asked whether they would say that Harris and Trump care about the needs and problems of people like them, have good leadership skills, and are honest.
Cares about the needs and problems of people like you:
- Harris: 47 percent say yes, 50 percent say no;
- Trump: 48 percent say yes, 50 percent say no.
Good leadership skills:
- Harris: 48 percent say yes, 49 percent say no;
- Trump: 50 percent say yes, 49 percent say no.
Honest:
- Harris: 45 percent say yes, 50 percent say no;
- Trump: 41 percent say yes, 56 percent say no.
NORTH CAROLINA: GOVERNOR'S RACE
In the governor's race, Democrat Josh Stein receives 51 percent support, Republican Mark Robinson receives 41 percent support, Libertarian Party candidate Mike Ross receives 2 percent support, and Green Party candidate Wayne Turner and Constitution Party candidate Vinny Smith each receive 1 percent support.
Democrats 98 - 1 percent support Stein, while Republicans 85 - 8 percent support Robinson. Among independents, 46 percent support Stein and 39 percent support Robinson.
In a hypothetical two-way race, Stein receives 54 percent support and Robinson receives 42 percent support.
NORTH CAROLINA: CASTING BALLOTS
Thirty-nine percent of likely voters say they plan to vote in person on Election Day, 7 percent say they plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 52 percent say they plan to vote at an early voting location.
NORTH CAROLINA: VOTE COUNT
When likely voters were asked how confident they are that votes across North Carolina will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election, 79 percent say they are either very confident (43 percent) or somewhat confident (36 percent), while 19 percent say they are either not so confident (11 percent) or not confident at all (8 percent).
GEORGIA: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In the presidential race, former President Trump receives 49 percent support, Vice President Harris receives 45 percent support, and independent candidate Cornel West and The Party for Socialism and Liberation candidate Claudia De la Cruz each receive 1 percent support. All other listed third-party candidates receive less than 1 percent support.
Republicans 93 - 4 percent support Trump, while Democrats 94 - 2 percent support Harris. Independents are evenly split, with 46 percent supporting Harris and 46 percent supporting Trump.
There are wide gaps by gender and race. Men 56 - 37 percent back Trump, while women 52 - 43 percent back Harris. Black likely voters 82 - 8 percent support Harris, while white likely voters 68 - 28 percent support Trump.
In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump receives 49 percent support and Harris receives 46 percent support.
GEORGIA: PERSONAL TRAITS
Likely voters were asked whether they would say that Harris and Trump care about the needs and problems of people like them, are honest, and have good leadership skills.
Cares about the needs and problems of people like you:
- Harris: 46 percent say yes, 49 percent say no;
- Trump: 48 percent say yes, 51 percent say no.
Honest:
- Harris: 44 percent say yes, 50 percent say no;
- Trump: 42 percent say yes, 54 percent say no.
Good leadership skills:
- Harris: 45 percent say yes, 49 percent say no;
- Trump: 51 percent say yes, 47 percent say no.
"In Georgia, ground zero for political fireworks the last time around, the Trump ticket has an edge on leadership over Harris," added Malloy.
GEORGIA: CASTING BALLOTS
Forty-three percent of likely voters say they plan to vote in person on Election Day, 10 percent say they plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 44 percent say they plan to vote at an early voting location.
GEORGIA: VOTE COUNT
When likely voters were asked how confident they are that votes across Georgia will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election, more than 7 in 10 (74 percent) say they are either very confident (35 percent) or somewhat confident (39 percent), while 24 percent say they are either not so confident (15 percent) or not confident at all (9 percent).
From September 4th - 8th, the Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed:
- 969 likely voters in Georgia with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points;
- 940 likely voters in North Carolina with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu or follow us on X (formerly known as Twitter) @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, - (GA) Cornel West running as an independent candidate, and Claudia De la Cruz the Party for Socialism and Liberation candidate / (NC) Cornel West the Justice For All Party candidate, and Randall Terry the Constitution Party candidate, - for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Harris 45% 49% Trump 49 46 Stein - 1 Oliver - - West 1 - De la Cruz 1 na Terry na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 REFUSED 2 1 -
Question 1a. If the only candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Harris or Trump q1. Respondents who named Harris or Trump in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Harris 46% 50% Trump 49 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 REFUSED 2 1 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (candidate choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Very enthusiastic 78% 79% Smwht enthusiastic 18 16 Not so enthusiastic 1 2 Not enthus at all 2 3 DK/NA - - -
Question 2_NConly. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Stein the Democrat, Mark Robinson the Republican, Wayne Turner the Green Party candidate, Mike Ross the Libertarian Party candidate, and Vinny Smith the Constitution Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Stein - 51% Robinson - 41 Turner - 1 Ross - 2 Smith - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 4 REFUSED - 1 -
Question 2a_NConly. If the only candidates were Josh Stein the Democrat and Mark Robinson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Stein or Robinson q2. Respondents who named Stein or Robinson in q2 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Stein - 54% Robinson - 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 4 REFUSED - 1 -
Question 3. Thinking about the 2024 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC In person 43% 39% Mail/Absentee ballot 10 7 Early voting loc 44 52 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 2 2 -
Question 4. Would you say that - Kamala Harris is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Yes 44% 45% No 50 50 DK/NA 6 5 -
Question 5. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Yes 42% 41% No 54 56 DK/NA 4 4 -
Question 6. Would you say that - Kamala Harris cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Yes 46% 47% No 49 50 DK/NA 5 2 -
Question 7. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Yes 48% 48% No 51 50 DK/NA 2 3 -
Question 8. Would you say that - Kamala Harris has good leadership skills, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Yes 45% 48% No 49 49 DK/NA 6 3 -
Question 9. Would you say that - Donald Trump has good leadership skills, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Yes 51% 50% No 47 49 DK/NA 2 2 -
Question 10. How confident are you that votes across - (GA) Georgia / (NC) North Carolina - will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election; very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident, or not confident at all?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Very confident 35% 43% Somewhat confident 39 36 Not so confident 15 11 Not confident at all 9 8 DK/NA 2 2