Swing State Poll 2024: Georgia, North Carolina: Trump Ahead In GA, On Upside Of Tight Race In NC, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; NC Governor Race: More Voters Say Robinson Should Stay In Race
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GEORGIA: Trump 50%, Harris 44%, other candidates 3%
NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 49%, Harris 47%, other candidates 2%
NC GOVERNOR RACE: Stein 52%, Robinson 39%, other candidates 4%
Five weeks before Election Day, the two key Southeast swing states of Georgia and North Carolina show a mixed picture as former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia and the race in North Carolina is too close to call, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the two states released today.
"All eyes are on the South as Georgia and North Carolina, turbocharged by 32 electoral votes between them, can make or break the two candidates in a race that looks to be leaning Trump's way in Georgia at the moment and churning toward a tight finish in North Carolina," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
HARRIS VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling key issues...
The economy:
- GA: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris;
- NC: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris.
Immigration:
- GA: 53 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Harris;
- NC: 53 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.
Preserving democracy in the United States:
- GA: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris;
- NC: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris.
Abortion:
- GA: 43 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris;
- NC: 44 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris.
International Conflicts:
- GA: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
- NC: 51 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.
A crisis that put the country at great risk:
- GA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
- NC: 53 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.
"On issues, as the presidential horse race thunders toward November 5th, Harris confronts a troubling Trump trifecta: he leads her on the economy and immigration and has the edge when it comes to who would best handle a national crisis," added Malloy.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Likely voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of...
Kamala Harris:
- GA: 43 percent favorable, 50 percent unfavorable;
- NC: 47 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable.
Donald Trump:
- GA: 48 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable;
- NC: 49 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable.
GEORGIA: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Trump receives 50 percent support among likely voters, Harris receives 44 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent candidates Cornel West and Claudia De la Cruz each receive 1 percent support.
In Quinnipiac University's September 9 poll, Trump received 49 percent support, Harris received 45 percent support, and West and De la Cruz each received 1 percent support.
In today's poll, Republicans 93 - 4 percent back Trump, while Democrats 94 - 4 percent back Harris. Independents are divided, with 46 percent supporting Harris, 41 percent supporting Trump, and 7 percent supporting independent or third-party candidates (3 percent support for West and 2 percent support each for De la Cruz and Oliver).
In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump receives 50 percent support and Harris receives 45 percent support.
In September, Trump received 49 percent support and Harris received 46 percent support.
NORTH CAROLINA: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Trump receives 49 percent support among likely voters, Harris receives 47 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Justice For All Party candidate Cornel West each receive 1 percent support.
In Quinnipiac University's September 9 poll, Harris received 49 percent support, Trump received 46 percent support, and Stein received 1 percent support.
In today's poll, Republicans 95 - 4 percent back Trump, while Democrats 95 - 3 percent back Harris. Independents are divided, with 47 percent supporting Harris, 45 percent supporting Trump, and 5 percent supporting third-party candidates (3 percent backing West and 2 percent backing Stein).
In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump receives 49 percent support and Harris receives 48 percent support.
In September, Harris received 50 percent support and Trump received 47 percent support.
NORTH CAROLINA: GOVERNOR RACE
Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson 52 - 39 percent in a multi-candidate race with Libertarian Party candidate Mike Ross receiving 3 percent support and Constitution Party candidate Vinny Smith receiving 1 percent support.
This compares to September when Stein led Robinson 51 - 41 percent in a multi-candidate race.
In today's poll, Democrats (96 - 2 percent) and independents (55 - 31 percent) back Stein, while Republicans (81 - 11 percent) back Robinson.
In a hypothetical two-way race, Stein leads Robinson 53 - 41 percent.
ROBINSON SCANDAL
Amid calls for Mark Robinson to drop out of the gubernatorial race following allegations he made racist and lewd comments on a message board on a porn site, allegations that Robinson denies, a plurality of North Carolina likely voters (48 percent) think Robinson should stay in the race for governor, while 38 percent think he should drop out of the race and 13 percent did not offer an opinion.
"Robinson hangs in there as a large majority of Republican voters stick with him. Independents are iffy...split down the middle on whether he should stay or go," added Malloy.
TRUMP ENDORSEMENT OF ROBINSON
Twenty-five percent of North Carolina likely voters say Donald Trump's endorsement of Robinson makes them think less favorably of Trump, while 7 percent say it makes them think more favorably of Trump, and 65 percent say it does not have an impact on their view of Trump.
Among independents, 28 percent say it makes them think less favorably of Trump, while 2 percent say it makes them think more favorably of Trump, and 68 percent say it does not have an impact on their view of Trump.
COUNTING THE VOTES
Likely voters were asked how confident they are that votes across their state will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election...
- GA: 33 percent say very confident, 37 percent say somewhat confident, 18 percent say not so confident, and 11 percent say not confident at all.
- NC: 37 percent say very confident, 41 percent say somewhat confident, 13 percent say not so confident, and 8 percent say not confident at all.
Georgia likely voters 57 - 38 percent approve of a new rule by Georgia's State Election Board requiring all ballots cast on Election Day to be counted by hand. There are sharp differences by party and candidate preference.
An overwhelming majority of Trump voters (87 percent) approve of the new rule, while 8 percent disapprove. Among Harris voters, 22 percent approve of the new rule, while 75 percent disapprove.
From September 25th - 29th, the Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed:
- 942 likely voters in Georgia with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points;
- 953 likely voters in North Carolina with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu or follow us on X (formerly known as Twitter) @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, - (GA) Cornel West running as an independent candidate, and Claudia De la Cruz running as an independent candidate / (NC) Cornel West the Justice For All Party candidate, and Randall Terry the Constitution Party candidate, - for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS AND IN NC ALREADY VOTED)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Harris 44% 47% Trump 50 49 Stein - 1 Oliver 1 - West 1 1 De la Cruz(GA) 1 na Terry(NC) na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 REFUSED 2 1 -
Question 1a. If the only candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS AND IN NC ALREADY VOTED) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Harris or Trump q1. Respondents who named Harris or Trump in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Harris 45% 48% Trump 50 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 REFUSED 2 1 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) How likely is it that you will change your mind about your choice for president before the election; very likely, somewhat likely, not so likely, or not likely at all?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Very likely 1% - Somewhat likely 3 1 Not so likely 4 6 Not likely at all 91 92 DK/NA - - -
Question 1c. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Very enthusiastic 75% 79% Smwht enthusiastic 19 18 Not so enthusiastic 3 2 Not enthus at all 2 1 DK/NA 1 - -
Question 2_NCOnly. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Josh Stein the Democrat, Mark Robinson the Republican, Wayne Turner the Green Party candidate, Mike Ross the Libertarian Party candidate, and Vinny Smith the Constitution Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Stein - 52% Robinson - 39 Turner - - Ross - 3 Smith - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) - 3 REFUSED - 1 -
Question 2a_NCOnly. If the only candidates were Josh Stein the Democrat and Mark Robinson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES ALREADY VOTED AND LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Stein or Robinson q2. Respondents who named Stein or Robinson in q2 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Stein - 53% Robinson - 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) - 4 REFUSED - 1 -
Question 3. Thinking about the 2024 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC In person 40% 41% Mail/Absentee ballot 6 8 Early voting loc 52 49 WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 2 2 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Favorable 43% 47% Unfavorable 50 49 Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 REFUSED 3 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Favorable 48% 49% Unfavorable 48 48 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 REFUSED 3 2 -
Question 6. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 53% 52% Harris 44 46 DK/NA 3 2 -
Question 7. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling immigration: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 53% 53% Harris 43 45 DK/NA 4 2 -
Question 8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - preserving democracy in the United States: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 49% 49% Harris 47 48 DK/NA 4 2 -
Question 9. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling abortion: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 43% 44% Harris 50 50 DK/NA 7 5 -
Question 10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling international conflicts: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 52% 51% Harris 46 47 DK/NA 3 2 -
Question 11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling a crisis that put the country at great risk: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Trump 50% 53% Harris 46 45 DK/NA 4 2 -
Question 12. How confident are you that votes across - (GA) Georgia / (NC) North Carolina - will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election; very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident, or not confident at all?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Very confident 33% 37% Somewhat confident 37 41 Not so confident 18 13 Not confident at all 11 8 DK/NA 1 1 -
Question 13_NCOnly. Do you think Mark Robinson should stay in the race for governor or drop out of the race for governor?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Stay in race - 48% Drop out of race - 38 DK/NA - 13 -
Question 14_NCOnly. As you may know, Donald Trump endorsed Mark Robinson for governor. Does Trump's endorsement of Mark Robinson make you think more favorably of Donald Trump, less favorably of Donald Trump, or doesn't it have an impact on your view of Donald Trump?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC More favorably - 7% Less favorably - 25 No impact - 65 DK/NA - 3 -
Question 15_GAOnly. As you may know, Georgia's State Election Board approved a new rule that will require all ballots cast on Election Day to be counted by hand. Do you approve or disapprove of this new rule?
LIKELY VOTERS GA NC Approve 57% - Disapprove 38 - DK/NA 5 -